Channel Stuffing Breaks Dealers' Backs In China. In America, The Picture Is Even Worse

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

China’s car dealers’ “backs are broken,” Luo Lei, deputy secretary general of the C hina Automobile Dealers Association told Bloomberg. “Dealers can’t shoulder the burden anymore.” They are overstuffed with cars. Average inventory at Chinese dealerships stands at more than two months of sales at the end of May up from a 45 day inventory by the end of April. It could be worse: In America, inventories are way ahead of China.

At 45 days, dealers in China already struggled with the rising number of unsold cars. Now, they are ringing the alarm bells. “The worsening glut of vehicles across the nation’s dealerships is unsustainable,” Bloomberg writes.

But how does this jibe with the great sales data published by General Motors for instance? A few days ago, GM China announced a surprising 21.3 percent increase for May, with Wuling up an even more baffling 35.9 percent.

Bloomberg says that these numbers are in stark contrast with rising dealer inventories. Carmakers, says Bloomberg, “only disclose the number of vehicles sold to Chinese dealers — instead of consumers.”

Dealer representative Luo Lei disagrees with the rosy numbers:

“The picture we have is very different from what the automakers are painting. The sales increases they’re reporting are achieved by loading dealers with stock.”

Average Days To Turn

Meanwhile at home, the channel is being stuffed with greater vigor than in broken back China. GM’s and Chrysler Groups inventories stood at 70 days in April, Edmunds reports. Ford is a little more conservative with only 60 days.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Omoikane Omoikane on Jun 07, 2012

    Did it happen to cross your mind that Canada buys about 2000 Camry's a month - all coming from south of Cleveland- and Canadian Pacific Rail being on strike there was no way to ship them across the border?

  • Billfrombuckhead Billfrombuckhead on Jun 11, 2012

    Chrysler groups days supply is 61 days as of June with Ram trucks and Jeep compacts with the highest numbers. Chrysler division has only 46 days. Avenger only 19 days. Grand Cherokees 57 days.

  • Probert They already have hybrids, but these won't ever be them as they are built on the modular E-GMP skateboard.
  • Justin You guys still looking for that sportbak? I just saw one on the Facebook marketplace in Arizona
  • 28-Cars-Later I cannot remember what happens now, but there are whiteblocks in this period which develop a "tick" like sound which indicates they are toast (maybe head gasket?). Ten or so years ago I looked at an '03 or '04 S60 (I forget why) and I brought my Volvo indy along to tell me if it was worth my time - it ticked and that's when I learned this. This XC90 is probably worth about $300 as it sits, not kidding, and it will cost you conservatively $2500 for an engine swap (all the ones I see on car-part.com have north of 130K miles starting at $1,100 and that's not including freight to a shop, shop labor, other internals to do such as timing belt while engine out etc).
  • 28-Cars-Later Ford reported it lost $132,000 for each of its 10,000 electric vehicles sold in the first quarter of 2024, according to CNN. The sales were down 20 percent from the first quarter of 2023 and would “drag down earnings for the company overall.”The losses include “hundreds of millions being spent on research and development of the next generation of EVs for Ford. Those investments are years away from paying off.” [if they ever are recouped] Ford is the only major carmaker breaking out EV numbers by themselves. But other marques likely suffer similar losses. https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fords-120000-loss-vehicle-shows-california-ev-goals-are-impossible Given these facts, how did Tesla ever produce anything in volume let alone profit?
  • AZFelix Let's forego all of this dilly-dallying with autonomous cars and cut right to the chase and the only real solution.
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