World's Largest Carmaker 2012: Four Months Into The Year, Toyota Solidifies Lead Over GM and VW
Japanese carmakers published worldwide sales and production numbers for April and the first four months of the year today. As expected, they look pretty wild, with triple digit percentage gains. Hidden in the numbers: Toyota stands good chances to regain the title World’s Largest Carmaker, which it lost last year.
For April, Toyota reported worldwide production gains of 129 percent, Nissan is up 49 percent, Honda a whopping 154 percent. These numbers compare with a post-tsunami April. They will remain wild for months to come, as we compare with a truly disastrous year.
Global Production 4 Months 2012
4M ’124M ’11YoYProj ’12Toyota3,498,7312,342,57849.4%10,496,000GM *3,232,0003,102,6674.2%9,696,000Volkswagen2,890,0002,660,0008.6%8,670,000* GM estimate based on Q1, 4 month data unavailableWhat is more interesting is that Toyota solidified its lead in the race for the world’s largest carmaker of 2012. Toyota lost this title last year. The title was already lost in the first quarter of 2011, and the loss became bigger and more painful as one disaster followed the other. Finally, Toyota finished third behind GM and Volkswagen.
Toyota regained the lead early in the year, and kept building on that lead in April. Four months into the year, Toyota produced 600,000 units more than number three Volkswagen, and most likely 250,000 units more than second placed GM. GM did not make global production data available for April, we are using a straight line estimate from Q1 2012. The reality most likely is not as rosy as this straight line projection. Note that we are using production numbers, because production numbers will be used to declare the winner when the year is over.
Looking forward, Volkswagen’s growth is likely to slow further as Europe’s number one carmaker is dragged down with the rest of the market. GM’s Opel will be affected badly in Europe. GM had zero growth in the U.S. in the first four months. Toyota does not have much to lose in the Old Country, while being on a tear in Japan and the U.S.
Nevertheless, the race is far from decided, at least as far as GM and Toyota are concerned. Toyota plants in Japan and the U.S. are redlining and most likely need to slow down a bit.
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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It's early in the year yet. The only stat that means anything is what the sales numbers will be like at the end of the year. But as for Toyota doing better this year, I'm all for it! It's nice to see Toyota making a comeback after enduring some hellish years. They survived false accusations, bad mouthing by the US government, Acts of God, and a nuclear disaster. Another positive aspect is that Toyota is not owned by the US government, is not indebted to the US government and is not sucking on the US government teat. That's a big deal with many people. Toyota did not receive bail out bucks from the US government and provides decent-paying jobs to Americans in America, building quality cars for Americans. What's not to like? Everybody wins! To their credit I would also like to see Honda make a full-recovery. That would be a nice addition to their Honda Indy-engine win. Honda engines -- still the ones to beat! What started with motorcycles and is now winning on the race track has got to be paying dividends in the bread&butter cars.
Good. That means Toyoda will have more money to spend on enthusiast-oriented cars. It was hard to justify his new Supra when they were depleting their war chest. Hopefully profitability and volume will provide the cash to get it made. I just hope they can go the lightweight and sophisticated route, rather than building a heavy hybrid.