Toyota Plans For 9.6 Million, Promises Tight Race

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

Toyota announced its consolidated (i.e. including Daihatsu and Hino) 2012 sales plan today. It causes intensive head-scratching at other automakers, especially in Wolfsburg. Toyota plans to raise its 2012 global sales by a whopping 21 percent to 9.6 million.


In 2011, Toyota fell to place three behind GM and Volkswagen. In December, and again a week ago, we opined that Toyota would probably shoot for anywhere between 9.4 and 9.6 million this year. Toyota shoots for the top range. Consolidated, Toyota budgets for an ambitious 30 percent gain in Japan, and an 18 percent increase elsewhere.

Units 2011GM9,025,942Volkswagen8,160,000Toyota7,858,091

The 9.6 million budgeted by Toyota are more than the 9 million that earned GM its number one ranking in 2011. GM is not standing still either. GM would need only a 7 percent gain to retain its top spot – if Toyota delivers on plan.

It looks a little different for Volkswagen. Volkswagen reported 8.2 million for 2011. It could be 8.4 million if they end up adding trucks made by Scania and MAN. Volkswagen would have to increase its 2012 pace by 18 percent to beat an on-budget Toyota. That would be tough given that Volkswagen is heavy in Europe (expected to contract in 2012) and China (expected to go sideways or down in 2012.) Gains of the Volkswagen Group in 2011 were 14.3 percent.

This year, the race for the top spots should be quite interesting. Unless the sky falls somewhere, that is.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href=""> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href=""> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Ravish Ravish on Feb 03, 2012

    I found good to visit to your blog and have knowledge through your content placed in the article Custom Tail Lights

  • FJ60LandCruiser FJ60LandCruiser on Feb 03, 2012

    I liked it back when Toyoda focused on QUALITY and not on being the biggest carmaker.

  • Th009 Th009 on Feb 03, 2012

    Bertel, how much is the Japanese domestic market projected to grow in 2012? Toyota's 36% growth plan at home is just massive.

    • Carbiz Carbiz on Feb 05, 2012

      Many northern communities in Japan are still devastated from March's earthquake, especially areas near the power plants. The replacement of the thousands and thousands of vehicles destroyed will likely be longer term, but undoubtedly, as Japan's #1 brand, Toyota will enjoy a bump in sales. 36% seems a bit rich, unless they plan on buying Mazda or Honda out of petty cash.

  • Mike978 Mike978 on Feb 03, 2012

    As Bertel says "That would be tough given that Volkswagen is heavy in Europe (expected to contract in 2012) and China (expected to go sideways or down in 2012.)" So where will Toyota get its growth - the US? I wouldn`t bet against Toyota but it is a challenging target and if missed I expect as much criticism as other companies who miss their own arbitrary targets get on this site.