By on November 11, 2011

With Saab’s latest MOU with PangDa and Youngman expiring on Tuesday, the heat is on for parent company Swedish Automobile (SWAN) to hash out the many problems and disagreements between GM and the proposed Chinese buyers. And now that it’s fairly obvious that a deal won’t happen, as GM and the Chinese Government seem fairly well set against it, the question is “what next?” How do you plan an endgame that should have been initiated months, if not years ago? That’s the challenge being considered by the few remaining shareholders in SWAN, who are meeting in Holland to pick through the none-too appealing options.

According to a press release posted at Saabsunited, there are only a few options:

If Swan is not able to complete a sale of the Saab Auto Group or secure further financing for the Saab Auto Group, management will likely not be able to safeguard the continuity of the Saab Auto Group, which will have negative financial implications for Swan and its stakeholders and may result in the bankruptcy of the Saab Group.

If Swan is not able to complete a sale of the Spyker business, Swan may continue the Spyker business, provided that the necessary funding for that business can be obtained.

If Swan were to sell the Saab Group but continues the activities of the Spyker business, as it did before it acquired the Saab Auto Group at the beginning of 2010, it will focus exclusively on the Spyker business.

If both businesses are sold, Swan will consider all of its options (including a voluntary liquidation of Swan).

With Saab Auto Group almost certain to be forced into bankruptcy, the real question has to do with what happens to Spyker. North Street CApital has allegedly agreed to buy the sportscar brand for some $32m, or about the amount it loses most years… and North Street itself has some credibility issues. In a best-case scenario, in which the Chinese are able to buy Saab and North Street pays full price for Spyker, SWAN’s debt will still exceed the proceeds of those sales by some four million euros. With no revenue from the sales of Saab or Spyker, SWAN has a €136m in debt will come crashing down around it. Since Saab’s bankruptcy is a foregone conclusion and Spyker’s sale won’t generate close to enough to ward off SWAN’s creditors (and it’s not a money-making asset anyway), there’s very little chance that Victor Muller’s company will just go back to its Spyker business.

In short, this train is headed towards liquidation… the only question now is whether Spyker survives. It’s unlikely that North Street can really operate the business, and I’m doubtful that a deal will even be done (especially at the quoted price). My guess is that Saab’s bankruptcy and SWAN’s crushing debt will spell the end of Spyker. How’s that for pathos: you start with one car company, try to add another, and end up losing both. Perhaps if Muller had cut his losses earlier, Spyker might have been saved… but having dragged out this process and leveraged evreything to keep the Saab dream alive, Muller is out of options. And judgement day comes on Tuesday…

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5 Comments on “Our Daily Saab: SWAN Examines The Endgame Options...”

  • avatar

    I think Saab would have fit into BMW’s empire pretty nicely as a maker of front-drive compact sedans/wagons/convertibles/coupes priced in the mid-$20,000s in between Mini and the 1-Series. Call it the 900 for nostalgic reasons and aim for full capacity at their only plant in Trollhattan. Reorganize the Saab distribution channel so that the new Saab 900 line is sold next to BMW and Mini. Too late now.

  • avatar

    @getacargetacheck: and how exactly would BMW make money that way…?

    • 0 avatar

      @Robbie: in part by sharing a common 4-cylinder family for the Mini, Saab and lower end BMWs, AND by protecting BMW’s brand by letting Saab represent the company on the lower end. Lots of under the skin parts sharing. Keep the price at around $23 to $25K for the sedan and a little higher for a wagon/CUV. Gotta shoot for high volume (200K units worldwide) to keep the factory humming. Probably not possible in the current economy — probably yes a few years ago.

  • avatar

    On The Site Of The One True Saab this evening,as well as blaming Lofalk for forcing the 100% deal on Muller,they are suggesting that when the PangDa/Youngman deal expires on the 15th there is an American white knight waiting in the wings to ride to Saabs rescue. I’m guessing they think this will be Mr Six Pack and NSC. If thats who they are pining their hopes on they really are deluded. And as far as that list of debtors is concerned don’t forget who the boss of Tenaci Capital BV is. Why, it’s Mr Victor Muller!

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