Prius Celebrates Ten Years In US; B&B: What Will Prius Sales Be In 2020?

by Paul Niedermeyer

October 10th, 2010 2:57 PM

prius celebrates ten years in us b b what will prius sales be in 2020

10-10-10 marks the tenth anniversary of the first Prius sold in the US. A total of 5800 of the pioneering hybrids were sold in that first year. North American sales peaked with 183.8k in 2007, and then drooped, and are pacing to 141k units in 2010.

Note how Japan’s Prius sales have boomed, surpassing NA, as a result of government incentives. What does the future hold for NA Prius sales in the next ten years?

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Don1967 on Oct 11, 2010

Projecting strong future Prius sales at this stage - now that the oil bubble, the global warming mania, and government inducements are all over - is a bit like Disco Stu's prediction of future record sales based on 1976 trends. Past performance is definitely not guaranteed. That is not to say that fuel economy will go out of style... nor should it. But complex hybrid fashion accessories almost certainly will. The near-term future belongs to simplicity, downsizing, and more efficient ICE powertrains.

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Sundowner on Oct 11, 2010

Prius has been riding the wave of popularity becuase of its brand recognition. Will that last? who's to say? Hybrids and the eventual successor electric vehicles are here to stay. They may be overly complex compared to other drivetrains, but that's comparing a new technology to a mature technology, and that's unfair. Anyone who's seen how VW's clean diesel engine systems work would probably agree than a hybrid is probably already simpler in construction and operation. people need to keep persepective; there was a time when fuel injection was impractical. there was a time when turbocharging was impractical. And let's not forget the wildly impractical Me262 jet fighter from WWII. It broke down all the time and wasted fuel. good thing those jet engines never caught on, eh?

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- Don1967 on Oct 11, 2010
  
  You make a good point about fuel injection and turbochargers being examples of new technology which needed time to catch on. One might add GDI engines and CVT transmissions to this list. But where is the new technology in bolting an electric motor to an unremarkable gasoline engine? This is Frankenscience at best. I speculate that the Prius' greatest contribution to the automotive world will be its role as test mule for regenerative braking and battery technologies. But the hybridnesss - the combining of two engines in one car - is a technological dead-end IMO.
  
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- Don1967 on Oct 11, 2010
  
  You make a good point about fuel injection and turbochargers being examples of new technology which needed time to catch on. One might add GDI engines and CVT transmissions to this list. But where is the new technology in bolting an electric motor to an unremarkable gasoline engine? This is Frankenscience at best. I speculate that the Prius' greatest contribution to the automotive world will be its role as test mule for regenerative braking and battery technologies. But the "hybridness" - the combining of two engines in one car - is counterintuitive to the concept of technological progress.
  
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- MikePDX on Oct 11, 2010
  
  Agreed, Sundowner. Don, it's actually quite a remarkable engine - Atkinson cycle, which is more efficient but lacks low end torque. Since electric motors have low end torque in abundance, the two compliment nicely. 'Hybrid Synergy Drive' is an apt term for it. The devil is in the details - Toyota said at introduction the hardest part was the software. Hardly a bolt-together job, it's taken a huge amount of hard engineering, and it works. We'll see various mixes of combustion and battery systems as the transition to full-electric unfolds over the next 25 years. Prius will be a major player. Near-term I see the two-car household with a plug-in hybrid for trips and larger loads and a full electric logging local commute miles. (I wish someone would do a light affordable pure-electric sports car for my commute, say an eMiata. The Leaf is so big and heavy (and weird-looking). I'll have to convert one myself I guess.) It's a fascinating time for car technology, best in a lifetime. PS: I'm no hypermiler, I'm a lifelong car guy and I like to drive fast. The 2010 Prius gets me 46-48 real mileage daily, better on the highway. About 10% better than the smaller and slower 2001 model.
  
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