A Record July?
Hot summer. Hot deals. Time to clear out the lot for the 2011 models. Bloomberg figures that July sales broke all records since last August’s short-lived cash-4-clunkers frenzy. Eight analysts, polled by Bloomberg’s, predict a July SAAR of 11.9 million.
Real numbers will be released tomorrow, and TTAC will be there for the blow-by-blow.
In the meantime, all indicators are in the top band.
Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com thinks it’s not the steak, it’s the sizzle: “The deals have been pretty flat since April, but it’s the advertising and that people know summer is a good time to buy because of the closeout sales.”
Joseph Barker of IHS Automotive warns we shouldn’t read too much into the numbers: “Demand for autos is recovering, but it’s at a lethargic pace. Consumers are still not confident in their finances and therefore are still holding back on big-ticket purchases.”
Even Ford’s sales analyst George Pipas is cautious: “We’re all happy to see it perk up a little bit, but one month doesn’t make a trend. It would be a fool’s errand to try to call it a turning point.”
What follows are the estimates of the Bloomberg analysts of July 2010 light vehicle sales as compared to July 2009 for the Detroit 3, along with their guess of the July SAAR (in millions).
GMFordChryslerSAARRod Lache (Deutsche Bank)5%8%-3%11.8Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)23%8%1%11.8Joseph Barker (IHS Automotive)NANANA11.8Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)6%9%0%11.8Jeff Schuster (J.D. Power)NANANA12.0Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan)NANANA11.7B. Johnson (Barclays)2%8%3%12.1C. Ceraso (Credit Suisse)13%18%10%12.1Average:10%10%2.20%11.9
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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Unless there was exceptional turnover with the rental fleets, I would put the number closer to 11.5 million. The good news... as far as sales volume... is that GM will be far more successful this time next year due to the Americredit acquisition. Close to 40% of today's car market is sub-prime and GM will finally have a partner that can take on the heft of these financial risks. Mark my words. Come 2011 folks who don't know any better will consider the increased sales numbers as a sign of recovery. When in fact it will likely have to do with GM's access to credit. One other thing. Car sales will increase, when cars get to be cheaper to buy and own. I fully expect that to happen within the next five years.
If the true numbers fall short, and look as if they might embarass His O-ness, then GM will simply adjust the numbers. It's Government Motors, is it not? Why should GM sales numbers be any less plastic than any other government statistic? Artificially fudged to convey the right message to the masses? I am forecasting that the released number will show an SAAR of 12.1 million....what the real number is? We'll never know. After all, these sales numbers will be brought to you by the same people who tell us they've created/saved 8 million new jobs, that health care legislation will REDUCE the deficit, that unemployment is an economic stimulus, that unemployment is "only" 9.8%, etc., etc., blah, blah, blah. Lies, damned lies and government statistics. I could go on, but if you see the truth you'll agree with me. If you can't, you'll NEVER in your lifetime admit I am right. Nero fiddles, Rome burns....