GM's Market Share Projected At 15 Percent

Bank Of America-Merrill Lynch have released their annual “Car Wars” report, and it predicts slumping sales for GM and Chrysler. GM’s market share of 22 percent last year is seen shrinking to a mere 15 percent, which is significantly lower than the 18 percent number that GM admits to. The real butt-clencher? Merrill Lynch based its calculations on a 14m unit SAAR, which is much higher than the 10m SAAR that we’ve been seeing through the first half of the year. Which means GM’s losses could be even worse if we don’t see a return to those sales numbers soon. Even at a 14m SAAR though, the three percent discrepancy between GM’s numbers and Merrill’s would amount to GM selling half a million fewer autos than expected. The report places blame on weakness in GM’s new-product pipeline for the projected drops. GM’s Tom Wilkinson fires back at the Freep, arguing “we understand that analysts get paid to try to predict the future… but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are going to be right.” Gosh, can’t anyone just trust GM?

The Car Wars report also savages Chrysler, arguing that (like GM) a weak product pipline will bring Auburn Hills down. Again. Still. Merrill predicts that ChryCo will be half its size within a few years. Chrysler refused comment on the report, except to say “we have no plans to be half our size in the future.”

Meanwhile, the fact that Ford plans on replacing 99 percent of its lineup in the 2010-2013 window makes Merrill bullish on the blue oval. Ford is projected to pick up about 3 percent market share by 2013, joining Honda and Hyundai/Kia as the top-tier in projected market share growth. Toyota and Nissan are seen increasing their shares as well, although at a slightly slower rate. The European manufacturers should stay about level, according to Business Week‘s take on the report.