By The Numbers: Beware The Ides Of June

The June auto industry’s sales results are in. The numbers have sent shock waves throughout Detroit— a town that’s become increasingly familiar with seismic events. Although sales tend to slip slightly as the model year winds down, these figures are stimulating some serious hand-wringing amongst The Big 2.8. When you factor in/out fleet sales, the future looks bleak.

Passenger Cars

Ford Fusion and Toyota Camry sales slid slightly from last month, but their mid-year report card’s looking good. For the first half of 2007, both Camry and Fusion sales are up 10 percent over the same period last year. Comparing June ’06 to June ‘07, Camry sales rose by 12.5 percent, while sales of Ford’s “hecho en Mexico” midsizer declined some nine percent.

The Chevrolet Impala and Chrysler 300 both showed significant increases over last June. The Impala is up by almost 17 percent, while the 300 ascended by 29 percent. There’s a big mid-year divergence; during the last six months, Impala sales rose by almost 25 percent while 300 sales sank by 14 percent.

Keep in mind that both models are fleet queens. In 2007, 46 percent of the 300’s and 44 percent of the Impala’s total sales sailed with the fleets. This does not bode well for either model’s long term prospects.

Pickup Trucks

As predicted, a weak housing market, high gas prices and the new Toyota Tundra’s debut have sparked an incentives war. The trend looks set to drive sales— and steal profit— all summer long.

The newcomer’s sales increased 4K from May, and jumped 146 percent compared to last June. ToMoCo’s rebates and special financing (average incentive: $5083) are working a treat.

Incentives didn’t help Chevy’s Silverado (average incentives: $3064) . Sales of GM’s turnaround dream dropped 23.5 percent from last June. Year-to-date sales are down almost two percent.

Thanks to huge incentives (averaging $6831), the Dodge Ram is holding its own. Sales were down less than four percent from last June. So far this year sales are up a little over one percent.

Sales of Ford’s F-Series (average incentive: $4272) were down less than one percent from last June. Over the past six months, sales sank over 11 percent compared to the previous year.

Truck-Based SUVs

SUV sales are still taking it on the chin. The Dodge Durango showed a 900-unit increase over May, but slid over 28 percent from last June, and almost 26 percent year to date.

The Ford Explorer lost only about 100 sales from May, but sank 23 percent from last June, and 22 percent year to date.

Chevrolet Tahoe sales slid 14 percent from last June and 16 percent over the last six months. Toyota’s 4Runner is down almost 28 percent against last June and almost 20 percent year to date.

CUVs

Once again, sales of older designs fell well below last year’s levels. The Chevrolet Equinox dropped 1.5K units from May, losing a whopping 53 percent from last June. So far, the Equinox is down 26 percent year to date versus last year.

Chrysler Pacifica's June sales climbed 500 units from May, but sank 41 percent versus June ’06, and lost 24 percent in the six month comparison. (Some 52 percent of this year’s Pacifica total has gone to fleets .)

Ford Escape sales are 33 percent above last June’s, and three percent ahead of the first six months of last year. The Toyota RAV-4 showed an 11 percent growth, with a 16 percent increase over the first half of 2006.

The new-for-‘07 CUVs showed slight dips in June. Most notably, sales of the box-fresh GMC Acadia were almost 2K lower in May. The Ford Edge and Jeep Compass held fast, dropping by fewer than 300 units.

Total Sales and Fleet Sales

Overall, all four manufacturers detailed here ( Ford, GM, Chrysler and Toyota ) lost sales from May. Comparing total sales in June ’06 to total sales in June ’07, all but one crapped out. GM was down 21 percent, Ford dropped 8 percent and Chrysler lost 1.4 percent. Toyota’s sales grew by 10 percent. (Year-to-date cumulative: GM, Ford, Chrysler, Toyota.)

Over the six month period, GM is down seven percent, Ford is down 11 percent, and Chrysler is down 1.4 percent. Toyota is up 8.7 percent.

Chrysler’s relative success may be Phyrric. During the last six months, fleet sales accounted for almost 45 percent of Chrysler's total passenger car sales. The artist formerly known as DCX also designated tens of thousands of leftover '06 models as loaners– for one day– and then moved them into their used car inventory.

This is serious. GM’s June market share slumped to 22.17 percent. That’s the lowest level since the company passed that mark on their way UP to their '60's high water mark (48.3 percent share). If sales don’t pick up, The Big 2.8 will enter September (and the history books) with a combined U.S. market share of less than 50 percent.