By on May 2, 2013

Jessica_Caldwell

We already thought Bloomberg might have abandoned its monthly analyst poll. We could not find one for March, and finally found one for April – after a lot of looking.  It would have been a shame if the table would have gone AWOL. This month, the race was extremely tight, and most analysts – at least the ones who had the guts to make forecasts for the D3 and not just for the SAAR – came very close to the actuals.

Top Ranked Analysts, April 2013

Analyst  GM Ford  Chrysler  SAAR SAAR Diff OEM Diff Overall
Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) 11.0% 16.0% 11.0% 15.2 1.88% 2.37% 4.24%
John Sousanis (Ward’s) 9.0% 17.0% 11.0% 15.1 1.21% 3.37% 4.57%
Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) 10.0% 17.0% 12.0% 15.2 1.88% 3.36% 5.23%
Joseph Spak (RBC) 9.5% 16.0% 12.0% 15.0 0.54% 4.86% 5.39%
Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) 10.0% 17.0% 9.3% 15.2 1.88% 4.07% 5.94%
Brian Johnson (Barclays) 9.9% 17.0% 9.6% 15.3 2.55% 3.87% 6.41%
Christopher Ceraso (Credit Suisse) 11.0% 15.0% 10.0% 15.3 2.55% 4.37% 6.91%
Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) 12.0% 15.0% 12.0% 15.3 2.55% 4.62% 7.17%
Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) 12.0% 22.0% 9.4% 15.2 1.88% 6.24% 8.12%
Patrick Archambault(Goldman) 8.2% 20.0% 7.1% 15.2 1.88% 9.08% 10.96%
Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) 7.4% 12.0% 8.6% 14.9 0.13% 12.37% 12.50%
Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) NA NA NA 15.1 1.21% 300.00% 301.21%
Itay Michaeli (Citigroup) NA NA NA 15.1 1.21% 300.00% 301.21%
Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan) NA NA NA 15.2 1.88% 300.00% 301.88%
George Magliano (IHS Automotive) NA NA NA 15.2 1.88% 300.00% 301.88%
Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) NA NA NA 15.2 1.88% 300.00% 301.88%
Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) NA NA NA 15.3 2.55% 300.00% 302.55%
Average 10.0% 17.0% 10.0% 15.2
Actual 11.4% 18.0% 11.0% 14.9

The winner was last year’s overall champion, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com.  She leads only a third of a percent in front of John Sousanis of Ward’s, who is separated by a hair from third placed Jesse Toprak.

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