Grade The Analysts: Jessica Caldwell Wins In Photo Finish

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

We already thought Bloomberg might have abandoned its monthly analyst poll. We could not find one for March, and finally found one for April – after a lot of looking. It would have been a shame if the table would have gone AWOL. This month, the race was extremely tight, and most analysts – at least the ones who had the guts to make forecasts for the D3 and not just for the SAAR – came very close to the actuals.

Top Ranked Analysts, April 2013 Analyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverallJessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)11.0%16.0%11.0%15.21.88%2.37%4.24%John Sousanis (Ward’s)9.0%17.0%11.0%15.11.21%3.37%4.57%Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)10.0%17.0%12.0%15.21.88%3.36%5.23%Joseph Spak (RBC)9.5%16.0%12.0%15.00.54%4.86%5.39%Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)10.0%17.0%9.3%15.21.88%4.07%5.94%Brian Johnson (Barclays)9.9%17.0%9.6%15.32.55%3.87%6.41%Christopher Ceraso (Credit Suisse)11.0%15.0%10.0%15.32.55%4.37%6.91%Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)12.0%15.0%12.0%15.32.55%4.62%7.17%Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)12.0%22.0%9.4%15.21.88%6.24%8.12%Patrick Archambault(Goldman)8.2%20.0%7.1%15.21.88%9.08%10.96%Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)7.4%12.0%8.6%14.90.13%12.37%12.50%Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA15.11.21%300.00%301.21%Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NANANA15.11.21%300.00%301.21%Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan)NANANA15.21.88%300.00%301.88%George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NANANA15.21.88%300.00%301.88%Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA15.21.88%300.00%301.88%Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA15.32.55%300.00%302.55%Average10.0%17.0%10.0%15.2Actual11.4%18.0%11.0%14.9

The winner was last year’s overall champion, Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds.com. She leads only a third of a percent in front of John Sousanis of Ward’s, who is separated by a hair from third placed Jesse Toprak.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Marcelo de Vasconcellos Marcelo de Vasconcellos on May 02, 2013

    Oh, she always wins in photos. I think JC will stand for her in future and not that British dude.

  • 08Suzuki 08Suzuki on May 02, 2013

    Caldwell is the only woman in that group. Statistics suggest that women far outperform men in Wall Street financial planning (yet are typically paid up to 20% less).

  • Kwik_Shift_Pro4X I would only buy with manual. Even if the auto is repaired, it will most likely fail again. Just a bad design.
  • Fed65767768 This is a good buy despite the mods, as unlike most Focii this old there's little rust.
  • Ashley My father had a '69 Malibu that I took cross-country with a lot of detour on the way back. It was OK, but nothing spectacular, and after I got back he had nothing but trouble with it until it finally died in 1974. I had a Malibu rental in 2003 and at one point parked it next to a restored '69 in a shopping center parking lot in Redding, CA. I imagine the two of them had lots to discuss while we were eating at the restaurant inside.
  • 2ACL My girlfriend currently drives a 2018 SE hatch. Automatic, but I've been handling the fluid services (looking to do another along with the filter soon) and it's been a solid runner for her. My only issue with its dynamics is the transmission's gingerly kick down out of corners (the SEL is the lowest trim that offers manual control functionality IIRC). Otherwise, none of the quirks that've blighted the Powershift's reputation have manifested.A stick would drastically extend its life expectancy. I know she isn't as committed to stick life though, which influenced my approval.
  • MaintenanceCosts GM hasn't put any effort into any Cadillacs except the Blackwings and the electrics. They're getting out what they put in. Pretty simple, really.The XT4/5/6 are all just slightly up-styled versions of Chevy products, but priced as if they were on dedicated luxury platforms like the BMW and Benz competitors to the larger two. The XT6 is especially embarrassing.Even the Escalade is just a Tahoe/Suburban with a few trick design touches and a halfhearted materials upgrade. The good news for Cadillac is that the Tahoe/Suburban are seen as upscale enough that a half-a$s upgrade to them can be a legitimate luxury car.Where's the "gotta have it" factor? Where are the dazzling interior designs? Where's the swagger? Until those show up the brand is just a set of memories.
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