By the Numbers: Mayday! Mayday! We're Going Down!
May was a disaster for American new car sales. Practically every player in the U.S. market ended-up the month trailing last May's totals, many by a significant margin. Perhaps the most damning indicator of the industry's general direction: the F-150's sudden and precipitous drop from the top sales spot. Ford's full-size pickup wasn't just edged out; it was defenestrated by four different cars. The Civic, Camry, Accord and Corolla all mounted the Mother of All Palace Coups. With gas prices singing "the only way is up," clearly, May is only the start of a long, hot, bloody summer.
Trucks
Overall light truck sales fell 24.5 percent from last May. The Chevrolet Silverado* led the drop in pickup truck sales, down 42 percent in May, down 25.9 percent year-to-date (YTD). The Dodge Ram slid by 37 percent for the month, 26.8 percent drop on the year. Ford's F-Series' tumble from the top of the U.S. sales chart was appropriately dramatic: down 30.6 percent in May and 18.7 percent from the first five months of last year. The Toyota Tundra turned-in its first negative month last month. May saw no respite (obviously); ToMoCo's full-sizer finished the month down 31.5 percent. Strong sales earlier in the year have kept it above the red line year to date; sales are still 8.5 percent ahead of last year.
Truck-Based SUVs
Traditional SUVs are dying, with one notable exception. Chevy's Tahoe* continues its fall from grace, dropping 39.7 percent in May, 29.9 percent YTD. The Dodge Durango has just about disappeared from view, "boasting" a 68.8 percent drop in May, down 44.2 percent for the year. The once all-conquering Ford Explorer is barely selling. Sales are down 41.2 percent in May, negative 28.7 percent for the year. Interestingly, the Toyota Sequoia is up 81.7 percent compared to last May, up 29.4 percent TYD. It's already outselling the Durango. If these trends continue, by the end of summer, Sequoia sales could easily eclipse the Explorer and Tahoe.
Crossovers
Here's news: buyers abandoning pickups and SUVs seem to be skipping CUVs and going directly to cars. The GMC Acadia lost the big Mo; sales fell for the second straight month vs. last year. Sales cratered 27.6 percent in May; excellent sales for the first three months have kept it 20.5 percent ahead for the year, though. For the first time, The Ford Edge dropped below the previous year's sales, down 2.6 percent in May. Like the Acadia, robust sales earlier this year have kept the annual sales up; the Edge finished May 26.8 percent ahead of the first five months last year. The Toyota Highlander* and Honda Pilot both finished May below May '07, down 9.6 percent and 16.5 percent respectively. The Highlander is still 1.9 percent up on last year, but so far, the Pilot is 14.4 percent below 2007.
Family Cars
The year of the car is finally here. Almost every mainstream passenger car showed increases in May. Chevy's Malibu* fell slightly from last month, but still ended up 39.1 percent ahead of May '07, up 25.7 percent YTD. The Chrysler 300 was the exception that proved the rule, finishing May down 52.9 percent, 30.7 percent YTD. (Chrysler attributed the drop to decreased fleet and rental sales.) Ford Fusion sales were up 26.7 percent in May, up 10.5 percent YTD. May was the Toyota Camry's best month in 2007. May 2008 saw a 2.3 percent increase on that high water mark; annual sales rose 2.3 percent. The Honda Accord continued its trajectory, rising 37 percent in May, 8.3 percent YTD.
Compacts
Chrysler's bright spot: the Dodge Caliber. Sales were up 6.7 percent in May, 9.2 percent YTD. The redesigned Focus was Ford's biggest grower, jumping 53.2 percent in May, running 35.7 percent ahead of last year. Chevy's Cobalt continued its sales climb, rising 19.2 percent in May, 17.8 percent YTD. The best selling vehicle in May was… the Honda Civic*. Civic sales were up 33.3 percent in May, 20.2 percent YTD. The Nissan Sentra finishes its third straight month of sales increases with a 9.6 percent jump May, 6.9 percent YTD. Toyota's Corolla also had a good showing in May: up 16.8 percent. A slow start on the year means the Corolla's still trailing last year by 8.1 percent YTD.
Subcompacts
Chevy's Aveo sales dipped drastically in February and March but they've increased steadily ever since. It's up 44.3 percent from last May, up 2.3 percent YTD. The Honda Fit made a huge jump, up 53 percent for May and 64 percent YTD. Nissan's Versa rose 14.8 percent from May 07, up 21.5 percent YTD. Toyota Yaris' sales rose 31.5 percent in May and 50.4 percent for the year to date.
Prius
The Toyota Prius turned in a shocking performance in May. In spite of soaring gas prices and consumers' increasingly "green" mindset, sales dropped 37.5 percent in May. Toyota [credibly] blames a shortage of cars on the ground. Regardless, sales are still up 3.8 percent YTD.
By Manufacturer
GM finished May 27.5 percent below last May, down 15.9 percent YTD. Chrysler was down 25.4 percent on the month, 19.3 percent on the year. Ford fared better, with "only" a 15.9 percent drop for the month, 11.2 percent drop for the year. For the fourth month this year, Toyota turned in a sales performance below the same month last year . This time, ToMoCo was off 4.3 percent for the month. They remain 3.5 percent below 2007 YTD. Honda was the only one of the "top five" automakers to finish both the month and year in the black. HoMoCo was up 15.6 percent on the month and, up 4.8 percent on the year.
Total Sales
GM, Ford, Chrysler and Toyota are closing truck plants and scrambling to convert truck lines to build cars– now that they've finally realized that truck sales aren't going to improve any time soon. As the model year starts winding down, you can count on even bigger incentives on trucks and SUVS as manufacturers try to clear out their inventories and make room for the cars everyone wants. Will they all make it to the end of the summer? Good question.
*Sales numbers include hybrid models
More by Frank Williams
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Ronin, my comparison of AMC and Honda was only relevant in the sense that AMC were consistently strong (but not exclusively oriented) towards smaller cars (sporty handling was not something any American cars had back then, in any way shape or form so it's a comparison only based upon relative size compared to the rest of the market). Likewise, AMC sales started upward on a nice trajectory in 1956, peaking in numbers in 1960, and in market placement in 1961, after which the market changed and AMC tried to change to suit, but missed the target (as Geeber mentions so eloquently with good details of what transpired). Geeber, had AMC gone ahead with the Tarpon in 1964 instead of the Marlin in 1965, the "Barracuda competitor" Tarpon fastback (based on the smaller Rambler American). The problem that the engineers had with that plan was that the then-current AMC V8 (287 & 327) weighed in at 650 pounds and was considered unsuitable for the American. (The 1967 290 & 343 V8's were okay for smaller cars, weighing substantially less). Instead, the engineers should have thought outside the box, shifted the engine back in the car a few inches and used the same Bendix front disc brakes that Studebaker used in the Avanti, on V8 Tarpons. Can you imagine the look on the faces of the prospective Mustang buyers in 1964, when faced with a Rambler Tarpon with 270 horsepower and a twin-stick five speed manual?! Heh heh. Mustang didn't get 271 horsepower as an option until 1965. Sorry, got sidetracked. Anyway, the comparison of Honda and AMC is majorly flawed in many ways, but the point is, that markets change and can be capitalized on by companies - but said companies must also be flexible and not trap themselves into marketing corners as Rambler did ("sensible shoes - we gotcher sensible shoes here.")
And that post is supposed to make it less ridiculous? Look I agree that a company which is inflexible will trap themselves and eventually lead to their downfall, but Honda isn't even close to that. At all. Your example was well thought out, just had the wrong application here...and I can't think of a modern brand that it would fit for.