#February2010

European new car sales have fallen back to crisis levels. With many of the incentive programs withdrawn or phasing out, it’s back to reality. Reality is quite rough. Basically, Europe is back where it was in the carmageddon days of early 2009. The few bright spots are caused by on-going life support measures. Without government generosity, the European market place would be a wasteland.

New passenger car registrations in the EU increased by a mere 3 percent in February. Compared to the pre-crisis levels of February 2008, new car registrations decreased by 16 percent, reports the European Automobile Manufacturers Association ACEA.

Chinese bought 46 percent more cars this February than in February 2009. This according to official data by the China Association of Auto Manufactures (CAAM), as reported by China’s state news agency Xinhua.

The avid TTAC reader is not surprised. A week ago, we predicted numbers along these lines, simply by looking at GM China’s February sales report. Amongst observers of the Chinese market, GM sales (all of them, including Wuling) have turned into a reliable leading indicator. A dubious honor: GM China usually is only a few percent ahead of the market, which doesn’t translate into a rapid gain of market share. This month is not much different: GM China’s February sales rose 51 percent from a year earlier, only 5 percent ahead of the market.

Aficionados of the Chinese bubble theory are now on their feet, shouting “I told you so!” Sales in January had shot up by 115.5 percent. In February, the growth was less than half. Obviously, the bubble must be bursting. No so fast.

German car buyers boycotted the showrooms in February. Sales crashed to the tune of 29.8 percent. This according to the German car importers association VDIK via Das Autohaus [sub]. The number is not the official number (yet) but the VDIK is usually reliable. Only 195,000 new cars changed hands, compared to 278,000 in February last year.

Germany is in the vise grips of a huge hangover from the cash-for-clunkers Abwrackprämien-orgy of 2009. In February 2009, the program was launched, and sales started to take off by 21 percent. Sales reached a 40 percent apogee in June. Compared to these numbers, the coming months will look absolutely awful. Small cars and subminiature vehicles, the big gainers of the Abwrackprämie, crashed the most.

Japanese sales of new cars and trucks continue their solid comeback in February. Japan has filed away carmageddon. Japan is utterly unimpressed by the Toyota troubles. Japan has not been spared Toyota recalls. The hearings and public apologies have received wide coverage in Japan. And what is the Japanese reaction? A plus 47.9 percent vote of confidence. With the currently very tight Japanese wallets. There is a long waiting list for the Prius, Toyota’s best selling car. [Editor’s note: Japan is currently in the throes of its own Cash-for-Clunker prgram]

Also interesting: Sales of minivehicles, formerly feted as the future, are barely holding their own, whereas sales of “real” cars continue their double digit climb. Let’s look at the numbers: