By on April 21, 2020

summit motorsports park ohio

Commenters, rev up your typing fingers. This post is sure to stir debate.

Summit Motorsport in Ohio is planning to re-open soon, despite Ohio’s shelter-in-place orders.

The track’s season opener already didn’t take place due to shelter-in-place. Now, owner Bill Bader Jr. is taking to Facebook Live to talk about his defiance on video.

“I understand the importance of safety,” he said in the video. “I understand the importance of following a procedure and a protocol. But I will tell you this. If you look at the [infection] numbers, as a result of COVID-19, they are a fraction of projections. If you look at three weeks ago, a month ago, the media, Dr. [Anthony] Fauci [director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases], whomever drove this machine led us to believe that this was going to be a catastrophic loss of life, and it’s proving now that that is not going to be the case.”

Apparently, Bader wants to reopen even if the restrictions are still in place because, like just about every other business owner, he’s taking it on the chin financially.

This is as good a time as any to remind you, dear reader, that this virus has taken more than 30,000 American lives in about a month’s time, and over 400 of those have been in the Buckeye State.

“What we have now is a situation where social distancing, best practices, we have empowered and enabled all these people, and if they had their way, they would save every human life,” he said. “And the question I would have for them is, at what expense? If in Huron County, if we are able to save every life and limit and ultimately mitigate any outbreaks of COVID-19, but in the process of that we all starve to death, then what did we accomplish?

“Many of us feel we are approaching a state where it is safe to reengage, it is safe to go back outside, and I think the American people want to go back to work. I think that is evident, and you’re seeing all of these peaceful protests, that in the days and weeks to come will become less peaceful.

“And so, the message I have to share is that we are opening. Summit Motorsports Park is not going to wait for permission. We will open this year.”

Bader appears to be falling for the false choice between saving lives and saving the economy. He doesn’t seem to realize that opening up too soon will work against efforts to squelch the virus’ spread, and if that’s the case, customers will likely be avoiding public spaces, such as racetracks, anyway.

Not to mention that lifting the shelter-in-place orders too soon will likely make the outbreak last longer.

Bader added that he hasn’t seen government relief, and has reduced his full-time staff headcount to just three. He plans to announce this year’s schedule next week.

I’d suggest that instead of blaming the public health experts for doing what they think is best to mitigate the outbreak and minimize the loss of life, perhaps Bader’s anger should be directed at the virus itself. Or, since blaming a microorganism for doing what it’s designed to do – replicate and spread – may be seen as a waste of time, perhaps he could express his anger at government relief efforts that have been, to put it charitably, a mess to this point.

Just a thought.

[Image: Summit Motorsports Park]

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146 Comments on “Ohio Racetrack Plans to Defy Shelter-in-Place Orders...”


  • avatar
    lstanley

    He’s welcome to open his racetrack to the public and the public is welcome to make a decision not to attend if they don’t feel safe.

    Sounds about the right way to do things in my opinion.

    • 0 avatar
      Mike-NB2

      And then after a race some patrons stop by the grocery store and infect some innocent people… Sounds right to me.

      I’m no coronavirus expert, but it doesn’t appear that the virus has peaked in the US yet. There are still areas that aren’t hard hit and they could still be. Compare the US to it’s north and south neighbours where the lock-downs have been more thorough and people have been cooperative – and the curve is flattening. In both Canada and Mexico the per capita numbers are much lower. Canada is an easy comparison for someone like me who can’t do math – the population is 1/10th of that in the US. Canada has 37,000 cases and 1750 deaths. Scale that up and the US should have 370,000 cases and 17,500 deaths. But the real numbers are close to 800,000 cases and 42,000 deaths. Remember, there is still no heard immunity. Moves like this could cause some serious grief.

      Gentlemen, start your engines!

      • 0 avatar
        EBFlex

        So much ignorance.

        First off, we have heard immunity in California. The corona cold was in CA far earlier than originally thought.

        Second, do you have any idea how you get heard immunity? Certainly not by shutting everything down.

        Third, nobody knows the true infection rate so any references to total number of cases is just pure speculation and not a basis for any form of legitimate thought.

        • 0 avatar
          JimZ

          you’ve heard immunity what?

        • 0 avatar
          Vulpine

          Good luck, EBF. First off, the coronavirus is NOT a cold. Secondly, there’s no such thing–yet–as a ‘herd immunity’ to the virus. As such, if California opens up, the virus infections will skyrocket much as they did in NYC and according to my calculations based on total infections, recoveries and fatalities, it works out to currently only 10% of known US infections have recovered and more than 5% have died. The rest are still suffering the disease.

          California is no more immune than any other state.

          • 0 avatar
            EBFlex

            “Good luck, EBF. First off, the coronavirus is NOT a cold. Secondly, there’s no such thing–yet–as a ‘herd immunity’ to the virus. As such, if California opens up, the virus infections will skyrocket much as they did in NYC and according to my calculations based on total infections, recoveries and fatalities, it works out to currently only 10% of known US infections have recovered and more than 5% have died. The rest are still suffering the disease.

            California is no more immune than any other state.”

            It is a cold. most people have zero to cold symptoms.

            There most certainly is herd immunity. There’s a reason that California…whits its massive population has seen so few deaths. The only explanation is herd immunity.

            Another story dropped today reaffirming that infections are 50-85 times higher than thought.

            This hysteria and lock down is unwarranted and ridiculous. Hospitals are empty, death numbers are revised lower all the time, etc. Once all this is over and we get rapid tests it will show a death rate of .1 percent or so.

          • 0 avatar
            Art Vandelay

            Curious, when can the folks that have had it and beaten it go back to work?

          • 0 avatar
            Art Vandelay

            You are correct @Vulpine, it is not. The last cold I had was much worse. Heck so was the last hangover.

            People get it differently, but given how the curve has progressed, I have to think a pretty sizable majority are sharing an experience closer to mine. And yes, I guess I am technically “still suffering the disease” if fixing my deck is “suffering”

            And I only bring it up because people throw around numbers like yours and everyone assumes the worst. I know multiple individuals that have shared my experience. Again, I have to think that is what the majority should expect and for most people…again, MOST PEOPLE (before the “But Whatabout…” crowd gets in), It isn’t that eventful.

            Again, I know, people have different experiences, but I really have to question the validity of that 10 percent figure. That really seems to be more about testing than actual statistics.

          • 0 avatar
            JimZ

            “Again, I know, people have different experiences, but I really have to question the validity of that 10 percent figure.”

            question because you have credible evidence it’s wrong, or question because you simply hope/wish it’s wrong?

          • 0 avatar
            Vulpine

            @Art Vandalay: The numbers I have come from Johns Hopkins reports, not ‘major media.’ The exact numbers as of when I’m writing this are:
            • Confirmed: 788,920 total infections;
            • Recovered: 73,533;
            • Deaths: 42,458;
            • Current: 672,929.

            Do your own calculations.

            Note: these numbers do change significantly every day.

          • 0 avatar
            ajla

            Not every state has tracked recoveries (even though they have occurred) so just taking the JH totals for your calculations skews things. You would need to only use the states actually reporting recoveries to get a more accurate amount.

            fox35orlando.com/news/covid-19-recovery-numbers-arent-available-for-florida-yet

            clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/04/08/interactive-map-shows-coronavirus-recovery-numbers-worldwide/

          • 0 avatar
            Art Vandelay

            I am questioning the validity of the number because it doesn’t jive with personal experience. I am not declaring it to be wrong, I am simply saying I’d want to look at the data behind it and the methodology of obtaining that data because, again, based on my own snapshot, it doesn’t jive. There is a difference between questioning something with an open mind…call it intellectual curiosity vs decrying everything as a conspiracy. I am simply pointing out that given the state of testing, especially early on in this and the fact that many tend to get well and on with their lives, I am not sure how much stock I’d put in that one right now. Thats all.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            Wow, EBflex is not only an expert on Ford but an expert on heath care and diseases.

            Colds don’t usually kill people.

            Herd immunity is dependent upon how easy a virus is transmitted. There isn’t a clear consensus on SARS-CoV-2. Some say at least 65% of the populace would need immunity to provide protection to the remaining 35%. Others are saying that due to incidences of reinfection i.e. people retesting positive and higher rates of transmission, that number would have to be around 90%.
            If 65% is accurate, 213 million Americans would need to test positive.
            “Another story dropped today reaffirming that infections are 50-85 times higher than thought.”
            There are currently 810,276 confirmed cases. That would mean 40.5 to 68.8 million total cases. That is still well short of the numbers needed for herd immunity to take effect.

            You then need to factor in the number of deaths that will occur based on that 65% herd immunity number. If it is the same as the flu, then 213,000 people will die to hit that 65%. The USA’s case fatality rate has approached 5%. That would push the death rate to 10.6 million.

            Logic isn’t your strong point!

            To quote you, “So much ignorance.”

          • 0 avatar
            JimZ

            “I am questioning the validity of the number because it doesn’t jive with personal experience.”

            no offense, but chances are your personal experience is so limited that you can’t apply it to the country (or world) at large. And that goes for almost all of us. We all like to think our “personal experiences” are representative of everyone else’s, but they’re not.

          • 0 avatar
            Art Vandelay

            Again @JimZ, if you read the whole thing, I said questioning. Not calling it out as wrong or some conspiracy or extrapolating my experience to the world. I think it is healthy to question things that don’t jive with what you see. That is kind of how Science works. There is plenty of cause to be suspicious of that number based on the crapshow that has been testing to this point alone. I am not saying it is nefarious, just that they don’t know what they don’t know. There is also a chance it is spot on. Either way it is not wild and out there to acknowledge that it likely does not paint the complete picture.

          • 0 avatar
            Vulpine

            @Art Vandalay: “I am not saying it is nefarious, just that they don’t know what they don’t know.”
            — I think they do know what they don’t know. Problem is, they’re not getting the help from the current Administration that they need in order to determine the full facts of the matter. The Administration says there are plenty of tests and materials available and yet that same administration claims that materials in the national stockpile are for the sole use of the politicians (supporting an erroneous statement by the President’s son-in-Law) and telling state Governors to fend for themselves.

            Well, one state Governor did exactly that and received a direct shipment of 500,000 Covid-19 test kits from South Korea that are known to be at least reasonably accurate–the plane landing last night at BWI airport and the Governor himself on hand to receive the shipment. While certainly not enough to test every resident of Maryland, it is enough to get a far more accurate count of active vs suspected Covid-19 infections.

            Depending on how these are used, Maryland, at least, should be able to confirm or refute the arguments postulated by EBFlex and others. Yes?

          • 0 avatar
            Art Vandelay

            Potentially @Vulpine. But I don’t think the tests are in short supply everywhere. I was given one and didn’t even have a fever at that time and the Doctor acted as if it was no big deal to do so.

            Will the tests show immunity for those that had it and have recovered? If so, then yes…it may not be perfect but it would likely be the best data we have to date and go a long way to increasing our understanding of exactly where we are at with this thing.

          • 0 avatar
            golden2husky

            …It is a cold. most people have zero to cold symptoms…

            So, a cold took my father’s life. Thanks for having such great insight into this pesky cold. Maybe you should be in charge.

      • 0 avatar
        Garrett

        https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

        https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/ohio

        US looks like it has peaked. Ditto for Ohio.

        The goal was flattening the curve – and that has happened. If you move the goalposts, then good luck on getting compliance in the future.

        • 0 avatar
          JimZ

          act in haste and you may not have the chance to repent at leisure.

          https://i.imgur.com/WvOQCbZ.png

        • 0 avatar
          Vulpine

          @Garrett: “Flattening the Curve” doesn’t mean, “Stopping the virus.” All it means is that the RATE of infections has stabilized and a near-stable number, after it is possible that the RATE of infections will begin to decrease. Again, it doesn’t mean that the virus is stopped, only that fewer people will be infected ‘this’ week as compared to ‘last’ week.

          The virus won’t be stopped until there are literally no new infections, which will take weeks, if not months or even years to achieve.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            “Flattening the curve” just means slowing the rate of new infections to a level where the health system can cope with the numbers. The same number of people will get infected but over a much longer period of time. The hope is also that it will allow for treatments and vaccines to be developed.

    • 0 avatar
      RHD

      Total deaths in Ohio (known) are now well over 600.
      There are over 14,000 confirmed cases in the state. I wonder how many of those (or their infectious asymptomatic household members) will be at the track?

      Ohio has, as of 4/22/2020, 1,213 known cases per million population.
      If ten thousand Ohioans are there, you could reasonably expect about a dozen contagious positives circulating at unsafe distances from the other 9988 people. If 25,000 show up, then 30 of them would be out spreading good old COVID-19.
      A handful of dead race fans, give or take a few, is not too big a cost, considering that there’s money to be make, and ‘FREEDOM’ to be had!

  • avatar
    jack4x

    This guy would like nothing more than to be forcibly shut down and made into a martyr for his “cause”.

    Rather than give him that satisfaction, the state should allow him to open, but announce that he is liable for the medical expenses of anyone who can credibly prove they were infected at one of his events. I expect that would have the desired effect without the mess of a public shutdown fight.

    • 0 avatar
      ajla

      I’m no Ohio expert, but I don’t know if the state can just “announce” a binding medical liability rule like that.

      The state legislature could pass a liability law, but that would still be open for appeal.

      I think they are better off just enforcing the current order.

      • 0 avatar
        zamoti

        I am an Ohio expert and I grew up about a mile from this place, could hear it at night from the house.

        The majority of people who go to events at this place are rural folks who find it easy to claim that they won’t get sick. A lot of these people work on farms, construction, or do something (having lived out there for 10 years, I was never entirely clear on what most people did for a living). Thusly, they already have minimal contact and are at lower risk than people who live in a city or work in an office. They presume that since they’re fine, everyone will be fine, this is all a big joke.
        On the legal side, I’m guessing someone would have to prove negligence, but that doesn’t seem too hard; the hard part would be getting solid evidence to state that person A got sick from person B at the raceway.

        • 0 avatar
          Vulpine

          @zamoti: Have you been reading where several rural preachers/ministers have already died by holding public services in their churches or officiating at funerals? Just because they’re rural doesn’t eliminate the probability that at least one pre-symptomatic sufferer came in contact with them and from that point on, any crowd is a risk. Just because the numbers are low now doesn’t mean they will stay that way.

        • 0 avatar
          Proud2BUnion

          My son frequents this racetrack . He works as an engineer. His friends ( Who are also employed as white-collar professionals) drive down from the Cleveland area quite often.
          You can’t assume all attendees are loner, country folk!

      • 0 avatar
        ccto

        My guess is his liability insurer will have a nice chat with him and that’ll be the end of his opening plans. Something similar happened with one of the big churches that was going to continue operating.

        Which is, in fact, to my limited understanding, exactly how it’s supposed to work in small-government market-driven libertarianism. So yay, the system works! Only businesses that can afford to kill people actually get to do so.

        • 0 avatar
          JimZ

          if not, gonna be a lot of John McDaniels out there.

          https://abc14news.com/2020/04/21/man-dies-from-coronavirus-after-calling-it-a-political-ploy/

        • 0 avatar
          Lou_BC

          @ccto – I agree. Would this fellow be able to get liability insurance with a state issued “stay at home” order?

        • 0 avatar
          ttacgreg

          What you write implies to me that if a company can afford to kill people, that is okay?

          • 0 avatar
            jack4x

            @ttacgreg,

            Suppose I’m staying on the 8th floor of a Holiday Inn. Due to neglected maintenance, the balcony outside the room collapses and I fall to my death. My wife sues for millions and wins, but we know that would not bankrupt Holiday Inn. Can we then say they can “afford” to kill me?

            The people attending a theoretical event at this racetrack do so of their own free will, and the person who puts on the event takes some responsibility for their safety and well being, just as Holiday Inn does when I stay there. My proposal would simply clarify that businesses operating outside state recommendations (based in science) take on added risk on behalf of their customers during this unprecedented time.

        • 0 avatar
          RHD

          Maybe the nice folks at Altria could suggest a good insurance carrier.

  • avatar
    cprescott

    If this guy can put together a first rate temperature check system with stands giving proper spacing and requiring face shields and masks (odd how the eyes in masks are completely exposed to the air that carries the infection), then he should do so and let the courts handle this. Most of the actions done by Governors and Mayors are arbitrary and capricious actions without a hint of consistent science behind the decisions. Let’s get the courts to establish real boundaries and to remove the games that some mayors are playing right now.

    • 0 avatar
      JimZ

      I’d no more ask a judge for medical/scientific advice than I would ask a doctor for legal advice.

      what you’re really saying is “let’s go find a judge who will render the decision I want.”

      • 0 avatar
        JMII

        Agreed – last time I checked a race track owner is not a medical expert. Several actual experts (with Dr in their name) have put out what needs to happen to let people go back to normal. The answer is testing. Until everyone can get a test its just a guessing game. I’m not making medical decisions based on a coin flip. I am in the high risk group.

        • 0 avatar
          JimZ

          yeah, but this is ‘Murica! We don’t need any of those so-called experts. Joe Average has his gut feeling telling him what’s real.

        • 0 avatar
          Art Vandelay

          Medical experts provide counsul to the people we pay to make the decision. They don’t make them. Our elected officials then have to balance that with the realities of living in a free state. When there is a conflict such as this where either the track owner is outside of the law or the Government has overstepped their bounds, a judge decides, again, based on the testimony of experts on all sides of the matter. This would be a logical outcome and one that is exactly how our system is supposed to work.

      • 0 avatar
        Art Vandelay

        We ask them all of the time to intervene in that sort of thing. That is why you have witnesses on both sides. Nobody expects the judge to know everything about every subject they are asked to decide.

  • avatar
    Imagefont

    Well now that the police are aware…. how about a stiff fine, for him and everyone who shows up to attend? I can hear his defense now: “but judge, not enough people were dying so what’s the big deal?”

    • 0 avatar
      EBFlex

      Do we shut down race tracks or fine people for the flu?

      • 0 avatar
        Imagefont

        EBFlex
        I don’t like the lock down either, and this is not about the flu. It’s about orders to social distance, period, based on sound medical knowledge. He can fight it in court if he wishes. I’m sure the owner and his family are taking appropriate precautions. You can decide for yourself how many lives are equivalent to the health of the economy, I don’t know the actual number. Had this pandemic been worse, worse than 43,000 people in the US plus an additional 1000-1500 each day, everyday, for who knows how long, then perhaps he’d be more understanding. Or if someone in his own family died.

        • 0 avatar
          Garrett

          As a society, we have decided that a certain amount of death and disease is perfectly acceptable in the name of the economy.

          Smoking is still legal. Driving faster than walking speed is still legal. Foods high in saturated fat are still legal. We allow 18 wheelers to share the roads with minivans.

          The current situation does require us to arrive at a determination of how many deaths we’re willing to advance for the sake of people keeping food on the table. Keep in mind, that economic devastation also results in violence, death, and disease.

          The big difference is that we can ignore the other choices we make where dollars cost lives, so it seems alien to most people that we would sacrifice the lives of others in the interest of the economy.

          There’s not one right answer, but the problem arises when someone who is economically secure demands that someone else remain unemployed and broke because of a probability.

          • 0 avatar
            JimZ

            “Smoking is still legal. Driving faster than walking speed is still legal. Foods high in saturated fat are still legal. We allow 18 wheelers to share the roads with minivans.”

            You choose to smoke. You choose to drive fast. You choose to eat a crappy diet. You choose to drive.

            You don’t choose to let a basically invisible pathogen decide to take up residence in your respiratory system.

          • 0 avatar
            thelaine

            Garrett,

            You speak common sense. It is nice to find rational people at a time of mass hysteria.

        • 0 avatar
          EBFlex

          It’s not sound medical knowledge. It’s based on models that have shown to be wildly wrong.

          “Social distancing” is nothing more than common sense. wash your hands and cover your cough. That’s all it is. We don’t need a lock down to wash our hands.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            “We don’t need a lock down to wash our hands.”

            You’d be amazed at what the compliance rates are among health care professionals let alone the general public.

            “common sense”
            Common being the operative word. “Common” is highly dependent upon one’s socioeconomic sphere as well as one’s level of education.

            A dude piling 2×4’s for a living is going to have a different “sense” of what is the right thing to do. Those who are confined by partisan ideology also will have a different “sense” of what to do.
            My “sense” in relation to this is tempered by 30 plus years in health care and a preference for “critical thinking” not “common sense”.
            Someone like Dr. Anthony Fauci functions at a critical thinking level. Anyone who does accounts for their own personal bias’s but decides upon a course of action that takes into consideration the various possible outcomes.

          • 0 avatar
            Lie2me

            EB, there’s a lot of well informed guys here giving some good advice based on reliable information that you refuse to accept

            Tell me, if you saw their faces on FOX News every night would you believe them then?

          • 0 avatar
            thelaine

            EBFlex,

            Hang in there, it is not easy to speak truth to panicked mobs, but others are listening and agree with you.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            “panicked mobs”

            The only panicking mobs I’ve seen on TV are those “shelter in place” rallies.

            I often wonder why we spend so my time and effort battling Darwin!

  • avatar
    ajla

    “perhaps he could express his anger at government relief efforts that have been, to put it charitably, a mess to this point.”

    He does state that the government relief programs have not helped his business, but how would this also not be a waste of time? I’ll let the TTAC partisans argue about who is more to “blame”, but the government at nearly every level has shown that they either can’t or won’t prop things up. If you don’t help people out *a lot* and there isn’t Black Plague levels of danger then this type of pushback is the result.

    It isn’t only the US either. I don’t think Spain is reopening factories and France is planning to lift some restrictions on May 11 because the virus is gone.

  • avatar
    pwrwrench

    If they do have race events I hope it works out well for all.
    I’m concerned that the “re-open” ideas may lead to another round of people getting sick with the C-19 virus.
    The county where I live has changed their suggestions of stay home to opening county parks and beaches. The are asking for groups of no more than five to congregate and keep the six foot distance.
    Also the county okayed auto dealers to sell vehicles with customers coming to the store.
    Again, I hope this works out, but I worry a bit.

  • avatar
    Louis XVI

    ““I understand the importance of safety,” he said in the video. “I understand the importance of following a procedure and a protocol. ”

    No he doesn’t.

    “If you look at the [infection] numbers, as a result of COVID-19, they are a fraction of projections. If you look at three weeks ago, a month ago, the media, Dr. [Anthony] Fauci [director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases], whomever drove this machine led us to believe that this was going to be a catastrophic loss of life, and it’s proving now that that is not going to be the case.”

    This ding dong doesn’t realize that the reason the (already very high) death toll is lower than the projections is *because* of the measures taken to slow the spread of the virus.

    It’s like if he was afraid of getting cold in the winter, so he installed a bunch of insulation in his house. Then, when he’s warm in the winter, he says, “this insulation was a waste! I’m getting rid of it!”

    I hope people are smart enough to stay away from his race track, or he’s going to get a lot of people killed.

    • 0 avatar
      JimZ

      Well, I’m glad we have medical/epidemiology experts like a guy who owns a dragstrip to tell us what’s *really* going on.

      What an a**hole.

      “This ding dong doesn’t realize that the reason the (already very high) death toll is lower than the projections is *because* of the measures taken to slow the spread of the virus.”

      They don’t get that. They literally can’t understand anything that complex. So much that’s effed up in this world is because of people like Bill Bader Jr, i.e. stupid people who think they’re really smart.

    • 0 avatar
      EBFlex

      “This ding dong doesn’t realize that the reason the (already very high) death toll is lower than the projections is *because* of the measures taken to slow the spread of the virus.”

      Lol you must love CNN.

      “already high death toll” is just slightly higher than the number of people that die from Nephritis every year in this country.

      The global death numbers are still FAR below the seasonal flu (~300,000-~600,000 globally…CDC numbers).

      Lastly the infection rate is FAR higher than originally thought (up to 85 times higher in some areas). So thousands upon thousands of more people have than originally thought yet the death numbers keep getting adjusted down.

      Clearly this is not the as big an issue as we are being told.

      • 0 avatar
        mcs

        According to CDC, 61k flu deaths in 12 months in the US in 2017-18 with no shelter-in-place. In less than 4 months and shelter-in-place etc. with COVID-19, 42k deaths in the US.

        One problem that needs to be avoided is overloading hospitals. Without the precautions that are being taken, there would not be enough facilities and personnel to take care of them.

      • 0 avatar
        SCE to AUX

        When’s the last time you heard that the populations of nursing homes were wiped out by a ‘cold’?

        I don’t have even second-hand knowledge of someone dying of the seasonal flu. Now, I have second-hand knowledge of two people who have died of CV, and probably more before this is over.

        Your logic is completely flawed, since you’re suggesting that nearly everyone actually has the CV. That’s a useful way to claim the death rate is low when it isn’t, but it doesn’t explain the difference in transmission, namely airborne means, nor the virulence that is killing ‘healthy’ people.

        • 0 avatar
          EBFlex

          Elderly succumb to cold and flu all the time. Are you serious right now?

          • 0 avatar
            Imagefont

            We have a very effective vaccine for the flu. The elderly and other people at risk are prudent to get a flu shot promptly every year. It’s doesn’t guarantee you won’t get the flu but it’s more than 99% effective. Covid-19 is much, much worse than the flu and there’s no treatment whatsoever.
            EBFlex you’re defending a bankrupt argument but I share your frustration, it’s affecting me too.

          • 0 avatar
            Vulpine

            @EBFlex: How many people between the ages of 30-60 succumb to the cold and flu diseases? Do you realize that the vast majority of hospital cases are NOT elderly but are supposedly in the prime years of their lives?

            We read all the time of people who believe as you do and are now suffering and in some cases have already died from this virus. You may not believe the “mass media” reports on TV but just a little bit of research will show you that these people are not dying of a common cold or an unvaccinated flu. These people are dying of a disease that takes nearly a week to realize they even have it, one week of ‘relatively’ mild symptoms, one week of severe symptoms, with a breakover point that either sees improvement or degradation to final death over that last week. One full month of suffering as compared to a week to ten days of cold/flu.

            Do some research. Quit believing something just because you want to believe it. I will grant that we don’t know how many people truly have/had this disease up to now but of those we do know, the numbers truly are “catastrophic.”

          • 0 avatar
            Art Vandelay

            @Imagefront…The Flu Vaccine is not even in the same universe as 99 percent effective. From the CDC Website:

            “CDC conducts studies each year to determine how well the influenza (flu) vaccine protects against flu illness. While vaccine effectiveness (VE) can vary, recent studies show that flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine.”

            Note, that is for the years they have a good vaccine so best case. Many years it isn’t even that good.

          • 0 avatar
            EBFlex

            “@EBFlex: How many people between the ages of 30-60 succumb to the cold and flu diseases? Do you realize that the vast majority of hospital cases are NOT elderly but are supposedly in the prime years of their lives?”

            Man the hysteria has infected you too.

            The VAST majority of people have no symptoms or only cold symptoms. Very few people in their “prime” are dying. Stop with the unmitigated hysterics.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            Elderly succumb to cold and flu all the time.

            Evidence please.

            I’ve never seen someone end up admitted to a hospital for a cold. I’ve seen admissions due to influenza. I don’t recall seeing someone in ICU with influenza. The only caveat being the fact that Canadian influenza rates and death rates per capita are better than those of the USA.

          • 0 avatar
            mcs

            I’m looking at the latest New York data as of 6PM last night. The biggest risk fact is having one of the underlying conditions rather than age.

            Looking at the “no underlying conditions” column, I’m only seeing 54 total deaths out of 9562 total. The biggest group, 40, was the 45 to 64 age group. Still, that’s not a lot compared to the UC group. The 65 and over deaths (for no underlying conditions) are only 5.

            Here’s the list of underlying conditions:

            “Underlying illnesses include Diabetes, Lung Disease, Cancer, Immunodeficiency, Heart Disease, Hypertension, Asthma, Kidney
            Disease, GI/Liver Disease, and Obesity”

            Here’s the data if anyone wants to take a look:
            https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths-04212020-1.pdf

            When the latest data comes out at 6PM edt, the filename on the PDF will change.

          • 0 avatar
            RHD

            Recently, President Bolsonaro of Brazil took the same tack- to minimize COVID-19 as a “little cold”. He saw no need to shelter at home or social distance.

            Brazil’s confirmed infection rate is increasing at about 10% every day. They are now 11th worldwide, after 10th place Russia (which is also increasing about 10% daily).

            No cold or flu attacks the brain, lungs, kidneys and liver the way C-19 does. Whoever engineered this thing (either God or secret Chinese military scientists) created a once-in-a-century quick-spreading killer virus.

    • 0 avatar
      ttacgreg

      I have a Fox News true believing friend who emailed me an article from a Denver newspaper reporitng that there are surplus hospital beds in the Denver area. This is his proof that the whole thing was overblown. I replied with “Great news, it looks like the lockdown has flattened the curve”.
      He goes along with Hannity and Trump talking about chloroquine being an effective treatment, and he also thinks we should just let the disease run its course, the fatalities will not be significant vs all the other killers out there, and then there will be herd immunity. I am getting so done with even trying to discuss things in this super polarized hyperpartisan state of affairs.

      • 0 avatar
        JimZ

        “He goes along with Hannity and Trump talking about chloroquine being an effective treatment,”

        if they’re still talking it up then it’s nothing more than malice, since it’s now been all but proven to be ineffective for treating this and harmful to the patients receiving it.

        “I have a Fox News true believing friend who emailed me an article from a Denver newspaper reporitng that there are surplus hospital beds in the Denver area. ”

        we have dummies here doing the same thing, pointing to articles about Beaumont laying people off. they read the headline and shut their brains off. they’re laying off the people who aren’t there to treat either COVID-19 patients or immediate critical/ER cases, because those are the only things they’re focusing on right now.

  • avatar
    thegamper

    You will get more and more of this as people/businesses face economic collapse. I get it, maybe it is ill advised, but I get it.

    Everyone keeps saying “We are all in this together”, and when it comes to preventing the spread, that is very true. But everyone making the orders and enforcing them in government, all the talking heads reporting the outbreak and lambasting people like this guy still have jobs and are able to support their family.

    Would be an interesting case study to shut down the government completely and stop paying them. See how long they would like to keep everything closed. Just saying, we aren’t really all in this together. Its a harsh reality.

    • 0 avatar
      JimZ

      and the people “protesting” (i.e. the tools being used by astroturf organizations) don’t actually want to go back to work. they want *other people* to go back to work so they can get a hairdo or go see a movie.

    • 0 avatar
      JimZ

      and it’s not like we don’t have history to go on:

      https://i.imgur.com/WvOQCbZ.png

      (graph of 1918 flu cases. guess what happened after interventions were relaxed?)

      • 0 avatar
        thegamper

        Just saying Jim, for people like you and I who are still working from home, getting paid, etc…..we have a much different perspective than those who dont have that option.

        Yeah, it stupid to take chances right now simply because you are bored, miss little luxuries or outings, etc. But a lot of people are looking at losing everything so I try to understand that perspective.

        • 0 avatar
          JimZ

          yes, well, that stimulus bill was supposed to head off a lot of that stuff, but a ton of it went into the pockets of people who didn’t need it. But that’s politics as usual.

          • 0 avatar
            thegamper

            Based on my 2019 returns, I was eligible for 0.0 dollars. I got $500 for my kids. That wouldnt keep me going for a week if I had lost my job. Even people in lower incomes, assuming you got the max $2400 for married couple, $1500 for max of 3 kids. That wont last long for a family of 5, at any income. Its all better than a stick in the eye, but the economic stimulus for the average person is a band-aid for a bullet wound if you lost your job and have no real prospect of going back to work anytime soon. I dont know how to fix it. Like Art said, a failure on many levels, a moving slow motion train wreck that has no end in sight. Realistically, the people who were still employed shouldn’t have received anything and the money should have been redistributed to those who needed it over several months.

          • 0 avatar
            Scoutdude

            @the Gamper, Yes this stimulus package is a big mess. It should have been based on actual need.

            People who have not lost income should not be receiving money, but many will.

            I also think it should be based on the cost of living in a given person’s area because that does vary greatly across the US.

      • 0 avatar
        Art Vandelay

        I said at the beginning that the government’s real responsibility here was to prevent people from being forced to make the impossible choice of financial ruin or someone else’s health.

        This is what failure at all levels of government to do that looks like.

      • 0 avatar
        EBFlex

        Yes because 1918 = 2020.

        Man you sheep need to come up with better arguments.

  • avatar
    EBFlex

    This is honestly fantastic to see. I genuinely hope we see more of this as these stay at home orders are ridiculous.

    This corona cold is so incredibly benign. The actual death numbers have been significantly lowered and studies are now showing that infection rates to be 85 TIMES HIGHER in some places than originally thought. All that means is that the death rate is significantly lower and all this hysteria and shut down is grossly negligent.

    • 0 avatar
      SCE to AUX

      So, you’re essentially saying that everybody already has it.

      Clever, but you’ve set a trap for yourself, because it means the virus is far more easily transmitted than even the worst projections.

      I hope you’re modeling your patriotism by being around the most uncovered people in public places as possible.

      • 0 avatar
        EBFlex

        Yes and the more positive infections means the death rate plummets.

        Come on you’re smarter than this

      • 0 avatar
        RHD

        About 160,000 people die in the world every day.
        COVID-19 has killed 184,000 as of 4/22/20, and the number
        of deaths per day worldwide is rising. (In fact, it has killed many more than that – not all C-19 deaths are documented and reported.)
        So it’s responsible for somewhere around 2% of all mortality worldwide at
        the present. That number is increasing (except in Australia and a few other places), so it will become a greater cause of death as time goes on, and at an increasing rate.
        Chances are about 95% for any single individual who gets infected to survive. I like to think that it wouldn’t kill me if I get stricken… but is 1 in 20 good enough odds to do something stupid like go watch drag races?

    • 0 avatar
      stuart

      Uh, no.

      The study that claimed CV infection was 50-85X higher than originally thought has been widely (and savagely) criticized. Two high points: the test they used has a high “false positive” rate, and the people they tested were self-selected (e.g. suburban females who think they’ve been exposed), not random. The study authors claimed they adjusted for the false positive issue, but the critics say that issue alone invalidates the results.

      The Southern California study has similar conclusions, and similar problems, plus it’s apparently too small.

      https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/20/feud-over-stanford-coronavirus-study-the-authors-owe-us-all-an-apology/

      https://www.wired.com/story/new-covid-19-antibody-study-results-are-in-are-they-right/

      Quoting from the Wired article:

      “Skeptics have noted that the conclusions seem at odds with some basic math. In New York City, where more than 10,000 people, or about 0.1 percent of the population, have already died from Covid-19, this estimated fatality rate would mean nearly everyone in the city has already been infected. That’s unlikely, since the number of new cases, and deaths, is still mounting, fast.”

      • 0 avatar
        Lou_BC

        Just like chloroquine and hydrochloroquine are a cure. The studies are flawed. But hey, if it fits one’s world view, who cares how accurate/correct it is. I saw it on FAUXED. Hannity and COVID-45 said so. Must be true!

        • 0 avatar
          Art Vandelay

          They aren’t mutually exclusive you know…they can both in fact be flawed studies.

          • 0 avatar
            -Nate

            “but is 1 in 20 good enough odds to do something stupid like go watch drag races?”

            The sad true answer is : it depends on your ability to have rational and linear critical thinking .

            If you look forward and plan for the big picture then no, the drag races or the big house party two blocks up RIGHT NOW are not going to make your calendar .

            If, however, you either cannot think about the future you’d like to have with your children , spouse or even wading through the marshes with your favorite hunting dog, then yes, going to the races RIGHT NOW makes perfect sense as does drinking your self 2/3 blind and then driving home afterwards…

            Sadly, too many Americans don’t care about next week much less years ahead when your progeny might just make you proud by being better educated, having a more fulfilling life, moving far, far away from wherever you live to a better, nicer place (this kills me but it’s so, I’ll miss my son when he moves to another state) .

            Much better to throw it all away because you don’t care about cause and effect, you just want to do whatever you want to do, RIGHT GODDAMN NOW .

            BTW : I see nothing wrong with drag races although I’ll never $pend a cent to watch them, they’re not “stupid” IMO .

            -Nate

  • avatar
    vwoska

    Tim, your entire profession is predicated on promoting and supporting personal automotive transportation. Automotive deaths total over 1 million per year worldwide. How do you sleep at night, knowing that you earn money supporting and promoting such a dangerous and unnecessary industry?

    Should we ban all personal use of automobiles? Maybe we should just ban outlets that support such a dangerous and unnecessary industry? It might wreck the economy, but it will “save lives”.

    Are you making a “false choice between saving lives and saving the economy” by keeping your chosen profession?

    Just a thought.

    • 0 avatar
      thegamper

      I hear what you are saying VWOSKA, but auto deaths don’t overwhelm the health care system to the point we have to build special hospitals to handle the overflow. Its not really apples to apples, but you are absolutely right in that we, as a society, pick winners and losers all the time. We are happy to tell people in automobile deaths that it is simply the price we pay for commerce and transportation. We are happy to tell kids getting gunned down that they are the price we pay for the 2nd amendment. The best parallel I can think of are cigarettes. We still happily sell them more than 50 years after it became widely known scientific fact that they will kill you. But life has come to a halt in this instance to prevent deaths. I think it is healthy to question why that is, why some people are more deserving of saving than others. Even in the case of COVID19, we are choosing to save our elderly, immune compromised and comorbid populations when there are bound to be families that will go hungry, families that will never recover, kids that will fall into poverty. Questions worth asking.

    • 0 avatar
      SCE to AUX

      @vwoska:

      You’re establishing a false choice. Driving requires personal responsibility, and so does one’s conduct in public during a pandemic.

      Nobody says accidents are acceptable, which is why drivers are held liable when they’ve been the cause of one.

  • avatar
    Vulpine

    I see the potential for dozens, if not hundreds, of Wrongful Death lawsuits and possible Manslaughter charges with this one.

  • avatar
    ToolGuy

    Draw a Venn diagram (I will too):
    • Automotive enthusiasts
    • Racing enthusiasts
    • Individuals with attachment issues

    Does yours have any overlap? (Mine does.)

    Now let’s add:
    • Individuals with authority issues

    Yeah, this should be interesting.

  • avatar
    Lie2me

    Lol, all the stable geniuses are up and about today. Nothing like a bunch of old retired guys who are safe at home telling the rest of the world how it should be done

    Nurse! They’re on the computer again

  • avatar
    SCE to AUX

    Tim – good summary.

  • avatar
    Imagefont

    If you voted for Trump, but also want a government handout and government assistance for businesses, shouldn’t your head explode?

    • 0 avatar
      Garrett

      I know you are not asking a serious question, but let’s rephrase it.

      “If the government demands you close your business, does the government have the responsibility to provide compensation for taking your livelihood away?”

      If the answer is no, we can gut the Fifth Amendment. Instead of using eminent domain, have the government demand a business be shuttered, or a house uninhabitable, and then use the economic ruin to provide the opportunity to seize the property.

      • 0 avatar
        Art Vandelay

        Weren’t the 2 of you saying it was in bad taste to diss someone’s personal experience in some other thread?between the “Not my President” and the “No Socialism” crowd I would anticipate very few of these will get cashed.

    • 0 avatar
      Lie2me

      “shouldn’t your head explode?”

      Yes, but would they know the difference?

  • avatar
    bullnuke

    While this is another click-bait and pot-stirring article, none of the commenters nor I have enough solid correct information to make a rational and correct judgment on this. All that is know about COVID-19 for sure is that it is a virus pandemic that originated in China and that the virus is more virulent than most flu viruses and affects mainly the older population and those with compromised health – as most flu viral outbreaks also do. We are told that this particular virus has caused deaths but the numbers being bandied about are skewed due to under reporting from some areas (deliberate or otherwise) and over reported (deliberate or otherwise)from other areas for cultural or political reasons. As with many things and similar to a trial with a judge, jury, and opposing councils we are listening to experts that give testimony (or opinions in the current case) to support the prejudices of whichever side of the question brings these folks in – this is patently obvious to most anyone who surfs the various networks that support either side of the view of the pandemic and the medical (and otherwise) experts invited to comment on the various shows/reports. Now concerning the methods to “prevent the spread” of this virus which would cause concern for Bill Bader Jr. deciding to open his track. As a federation of states, the different states have taken differing methods to prevent spreading this current virus to others in their populations. These differing methods in different settings (tightly packed highly populated metropolitan areas, large but less packed population in cities, small and medium population areas, rural areas, etc.)have resulted in a rather “shotgun” approach to mitigating the spread of the virus similar to the stealership mechanic Easter-egging repairs on a vehicle (relay here, sensor there, new hose under there, etc.) which results in never actually knowing what exactly works to obtain the desired outcome. Having seen governments operating in crisis of the past, some efforts may be more of a visible expression of “doing something” for the voters than a truly effective measure. So, as I see above from the various commenters, no one really knows the answer to this guy opening his track, whether it is right or wrong, and everyone is appearing to Easter-egg some sort of solution depending upon, as in the “trial” example above, the point of view of each persons preferred “experts”. I am a survivor of a pandemic that killed 80,000 people in this country in 1957, the Asian Flu. I was a very, very ill child of 6 years old and remember the nose bleeds, the fevers, the dizziness that I experienced for a couple weeks. The Asian Flu (from China and wild ducks) of ’57 into ’58 killed several in my Ohio community of 70,000 including several children, 80,000 nationwide, and 1.5 to 2 million worldwide. To date, this same community has had no deaths and less confirmed cases of CONVID-19. Because of my experience I keep a bit more of an open mind on this and hopefully without confirmation bias because I know that I don’t know and I see that the experts of both sides don’t definitively know all that’s needed with CONVID-19. If he wants to open his track, let him.

    • 0 avatar
      EBFlex

      “the virus is more virulent than most flu viruses and affects mainly the older population and those with compromised health – as most flu viral outbreaks also do.”

      Finally a ray of common sense from a comment section filled with hysterical sheep that believe the “panic porn” media.

  • avatar

    “Not to mention that lifting the shelter-in-place orders too soon will likely make the outbreak last longer.”

    Ironically that’s is exactly what shelter in place accomplishes. One question I would like answered is: Why is Sweden, which did nothing drastic like SIP, seeing normal seasonal flu like numbers and now has a rate that is lower than places that implemented SIP?

    Spoke with an epidemiologist who said COVID19 is faster spreading, but not nearly as fatal as SARS or MERS from years back. Our states current published numbers show a .3% morbidity rate – same as seasonal flu. 3 leading facilities – Stanford being among them – released serology studies that indicate the SIP measures we are taking are ineffective. The CDC said in a paper back in early March that closing schools would be ineffective in slowing the spread of COVID19. Not making any of this up – just wondering why, in light of these facts, we are taking a course of action that appears to not be warranted. I know I’ll get blow back from this, but I suspect it will be from folks who have not looked into this issue and considered all sources/statistics.

    • 0 avatar
      Vulpine

      Let’s put it this way, THX… We currently see the rate of infections starting to slow down, right? Is this because the disease is truly not the problem some are saying or because the ‘shelter in place’ rules are working?

      The easiest way to answer this would be to start allowing larger gatherings again and see if the infection rate starts to jump again. If so, then there will be clear Cause and Effect–otherwise known as Logic–to show that Shelter in Place works or doesn’t work. True?

      Now, are you willing to take that risk?

      I’m not.
      Why? Because if I catch it, I could end up as one of the fatal victims, since I have been asthmatic all my life and this disease directly affects the lungs.

      • 0 avatar

        I’ve already had the virus back in January (high risk as I’m 65). No, I have not been tested as the current “we don’t have enough tests” mantra is ongoing. I’m taking the usual common sense precautions that everyone should take. No, I’m not saying that it isn’t a serious disease. No, I’m not saying more folks will not die.

        Do you realize that the Imperial College, whose initial model created the panic, admitted they used seasonal flu numbers along with COVID19 in their model which produced the enormous amount of fatalities (one mil in England alone if I remember right) that have yet to materialize?

        When the entities that we are supposed to trust admit SIP will be ineffective in slowing the spread, why are we ignoring them? The CDC published numbers on seasonal flu that shows we have already had 43,000 fatalities since January. How many of those cases were COVID19? How many of the fatalities were people who already had at least 1 underlying respiratory illness? I’ve seen numbers of at least 47% from different sources that I have not had time to verify.

        The thing that is frustrating is few are willing to have a discussion about this. It seems no one wants to listen to “facts” that are contrary to their own echo chamber beliefs.

        Should we be careful? Yes! Should we be so paranoid that we react to respiratory illnesses in the future the same way we’ve reacted to this one? My thought is, no. Look at Sweden’s response. Their head of their national health organization directed their response. They seem to be doing well without any lock down/SIP. I’m just venting and apologize if I’m being provocative. It’s not my intent.

        • 0 avatar
          Vulpine

          @THX1138:

          “I’ve already had the virus back in January (high risk as I’m 65).”
          — How do you know, if you haven’t been tested?
          I, too, thought I’d already had it because I had an unusual–very unusual–‘cold’ back in early December that lasted all of One Day with extreme sinus drainage and typical run-down feeling and was pretty much back to normal the next day. I won’t tell you where I was at the time but if it WAS Covid… then hundreds of thousands of people were already infected before I caught it and that many more afterwards. On farther research, not even the asymptomatic symptoms come close to matching what I had. Oh, and I, too, am over 65 and equally at risk, not even considering my chronic illness.

          • “Do you realize that the Imperial College,…”
          — I wasn’t even aware of it, nor of any connection to the reports of the Chinese outbreak, the Italian outbreak or the US outbreak. As such, I can only state that this information is news to me and has no relevance to what I have been watching and reading over the last 14 weeks. Since I didn’t go by any models and have relied only on reports of confirmed infections (whether accurate or not) and fatalities, any claimed models don’t factor into my views of how this disease is progressing.
          This isn’t to say that the models are valid or invalid in their own right; only that they play no factor in what I have seen and followed.

          • “When the entities that we are supposed to trust admit SIP will be ineffective in slowing the spread, why are we ignoring them?”
          — What entities are these? Official numbers, admittedly not necessarily the most accurate but the only verifiable numbers currently available, claim that fatalities are only ‘just’ short of 44,000 in the US alone, which is supposedly higher than any other country in the world as of now.
          (Please note that I do qualify these statements as they can and will change if verifiable data can refute them.)

          • “How many of the fatalities were people who already had at least 1 underlying respiratory illness?”
          — From what I’ve been reading, the highest percentage has to do with obesity rather than, “underlying respiratory illness.” People who are excessively obese seem to be the most likely to die–of those hospitalized–than those in better overall condition. Retired people, especially older retired people, tend to eat more due to boredom but if you recall, obesity itself is a chronic condition pretty much across the board in this country, compared to others. Of course, the sicker you are from the outset–taking all ‘common’ chronic illnesses into account, means you are more susceptible to the final stages of the disease when it reaches that ‘live or die’ breakover point.

          • “The thing that is frustrating is few are willing to have a discussion about this. It seems no one wants to listen to “facts” that are contrary to their own echo chamber beliefs.”
          — Very true, on both sides of the fence. It seems the grass is not always greener, is it?

          As for your statement about Sweden, it appears part of that argument has already been refuted as the three OTHER Nordic countries show fewer infections and fatalities while they all have one thing in common: very small villages very widely set apart on average. Much of the isolation is already societal, except in their major cities. The US is a much different country both geographically and geologically. And that doesn’t even consider sociologically.

          • 0 avatar

            @Vulpine;
            1)I’m basing my approx. 14 day bout with fever, cough, body aches that came and went sometimes within the course of a day – going from bad to worse to better – on first hand reports of two individuals that did have the disease. You are right in pointing out that I do not know with certainty.

            2) The Imperial College, which I’ve been lead to believe by a former Brit is a prestigious college in England, were one of the first that predicted the massive death tolls that would result from the COVID19 outbreak. Their model was the primary one used to develop how the “world” would react to the outbreak. They admitted, sometime in March I believe, that their model was inaccurate due to their including data that was outside of the COVID19 data.

            3)What I’ve been seeing is data that shows 47% and above fatalities are occurring in “health” facilities (nursing homes, hospitals, etc.) with as many as 70%+ being folks with preexisting respiratory illness.

            4) Mostly CDC data and published memos/papers discussing guidelines for dealing with the disease. Italy’s official health info noted that 99% of all fatalities related to COVID19 had pre-existings with 70% (if I’m remembering correctly – this was back in Mar.) having 2 or more pre-existings. At that time Italy stated that their data as originally released was inaccurate. I will add this personal caveat – I’ve read so many figures that I may be attributing certain numbers incorrectly i.e. the 99% for Italy. It may be that figure was related to age of victims. It was included in a discussion of pre-existings and I may have jumbled that up.

            If you have some sources on the 3 sources concerning the Sweden thing, could you share those as I would be interested in learning more. Thanks for your thoughtful response.

          • 0 avatar
            Vulpine

            @THX1138:
            1• Very good reasoning. I would strongly recommend getting tested to see if you have had it and if so maybe your blood donation could help others to fight the disease. You could actually help people if what you had was Covid-19.

            2• As I said, I was unaware of any models, so they never played any part in my own analysis of the situation. I was paying more attention to how our political Administration was attempting to handle it based on already-existing numbers over time. The fact that the disease grew so rapidly in China and then seemed to stop in its tracks after the government’s literal lockdown in Wuhan told me far more than a model based on assumptions is likely to develop. I know everybody makes assumptions but I try not to let them color my quest for truth. I admit when I’m wrong.

            3• The truth is a mix of the two. Yes, elderly in nursing homes are a major factor, most obviously because they nearly all do have chronic illnesses already and are physically weak and unable to fight such a virulent disease. That is, after all, WHY they are in care facilities. On the other hand, those going into hospitals as walk-ins or ambulatory tend to be younger, with recently a 30-year-old victim dying of the disease. I’ve also read of an infant, less than two weeks old, if I recall correctly, dying of the disease. So the assumption so many people are making that this disease affects only the elderly are fooling themselves. I personally consider all these people protesting and arguing to re-open businesses without some sort of distancing measures as taking their lives in their own hands and very probably being the next wave of victims, similar to the one Ohio resident who called this disease, “a political ploy” and has since died OF that ‘political ploy.’

            4• The region of Italy that had the highest fatality rate is one where the vast majority of residents are somewhat elderly; people who have lived in their quiet villages all their lives. I will admit I don’t know what their state of health was but they were independent people caring for themselves as far as I am aware, suggesting a reasonably healthy lifestyle. There is much I do not know about the victims there but their strength of will was inspiring as they distanced themselves physically but made every effort to remain a cohesive community by singing out their windows every evening–separated by significantly more than a mere six feet. Italy did gain SOME control of the disease, even before it exploded so dramatically in the US.

            • As for the Sweden thing, my immediate reference is what someone said above. However, I also get emails from the Jane’s publishers of military and certain transportation industries. They have include a map of weekly outbreaks of Covid-19 now for about 4-6 weeks that would give at least relative numbers for analysis. Regretfully, I didn’t study this week’s map so can’t give or offer a more objective source at this time. — However, this map from the WHO is probably the best source available: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

            The WHO map shows Swedish deaths more than 10x higher than any of its nearest neighbors.

        • 0 avatar
          thelaine

          THX,

          Thank you for your comments. I agree wholeheartedly and appreciate you taking the time to present the facts in a time of panic.

    • 0 avatar
      JimZ

      “Spoke with an epidemiologist”

      who, and where?

      • 0 avatar

        Dustin Krutsinger, Masters in Epidemiology in Omaha.

        • 0 avatar
          JimZ

          “Dustin Krutsinger, Masters in Epidemiology in Omaha.”

          thank you.

          “just wondering why, in light of these facts, we are taking a course of action that appears to not be warranted.”

          IIRC it’s precisely because of how quickly and easily it spreads. SARS never really got a foothold here (if Wikipedia is to be believed, the US had 27 total cases.) We had, what, 2 cases of MERS?

    • 0 avatar
      Lou_BC

      @THX1136 – the Swedish “experience” is still playing out.

      They are experiencing markedly higher death rates than adjacent Scandinavian countries. “Sweden had 1,203 deaths,143 for Norway, 309 for Denmark and 72 for Finland.

      Interestingly, the government advised that people not travel over Easter and 90% stayed home. It isn’t as if Sweden’s government did nothing.

      • 0 avatar

        @Lou: the source, whom I trust as he does a deep dive on anything he’s willing to repeat, spoke only of Sweden not doing lock down/SIP measures. Appreciate your input on the subject.

        • 0 avatar
          Lou_BC

          @THX1136 – thanks.
          In my province we haven’t ordered “SIP” but have pushed social distancing and “stay at home”. Non-essential business has been closed and non-essential travel restricted.
          The rate of spread has decreased to where our health system can easily cope. “We” modeled to build in capacity for a “Wuhan Province” surge which has not materialized due to distancing and curtailed activity.
          I do agree that initial modeling was overly pessimistic. My province ran modeling based on several Asian experiences (good and bad) as well as Italy. It was felt that our system could cope even with an “Italian hit”.
          “We” will look at “opening up” in mid-May. Projections indicate that “60% of normal” would cause a slight increase in cases. Anything over that would cause another spike in cases.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            British Columbia, we have had 1,699 confirmed cases, 104 hospitalizations, 49 ICU admits, 86 deaths, and 1,039 recoveries. We’ve had 23 new cases today.
            We initially confined testing to health care staff, any high risk case or admissions. We are now going to testing anyone with symptoms and contact tracing since the goal moving forward is to open up the economy.

          • 0 avatar
            Lie2me

            Testing is the key that seems to be overlooked. If everyone could get tested they would have some real numbers to judge whether things could start to open up again. Without the tests everyone is shooting in the dark and I’ll be damned if they’re going to shoot at me

      • 0 avatar
        thelaine

        Virtually no one has advocating doing “nothing.”

    • 0 avatar

      A note on the serology studies: they also indicated that there have been far more positive case infections of COVID19 than what is currently being shown in official reports. (I may be saying that clumsily, but hopefully that makes sense.) Bottom line on that issue is the predicted mortality rates of 3%+ are inaccurate with the actual being dramatically lower – in the tenths of a percent region.

  • avatar
    -Nate

    Mondo click bait here .

    -Nate

  • avatar
    Raevoxx

    Came to check on mediocre articles, and see if the place still has rampant ignorant, hyper-conservative, MAGA-Pushing, science-defying, armchair-jockeying, out-of-touch commentariat.

    Didn’t leave disappointed.

    Half of you should be committed to a mental institution, and another quarter of you need to be under straight-up house arrest for endangering others by being basically a willing virus infection vector to help destroy even more businesses and lives.

    “It’s just a cold”. JFC, people like EBFlex I already knew were pretty touched in the head, but this is an all-new level of ignorance. This has to be some straight-up trolling, no questions asked, because you all can’t possibly be this brokenly stupid. People like them are the most dangerous people in this country. Even moreso than Michigan friggen’ militia.

    Just wow. I hope none of you end up dead or mourning a loved one from COVID19.

  • avatar
    -Nate

    5.2.20

    Been thinking about this as I worked on my jalopies in the back yard and missed my 21.5 year old dog who died, I’m getting restless too but don’t want to be one more stupid v*rus vector like the pin heads who jammed the Orange County beaches shoulder to shoulder screaming “freedom !” yesterday .

    The guy who put on the ‘Fools Errand’ drive and I were E-Mailing and he said something about a Social Distancing road trip to New Mexico and back, where would we sleep ? .

    This might be *just* the thing, I won’t have any problem keeping 6′ + away from anyone else but I’m not 20 anymore so sleeping in my car isn’t much fun .

    -Nate

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