The Average Road-going Vehicle is Now Older Than Ever
The life expectancy of the average automobile was only 6.75 years in 1930. It is almost double that now and shows no signs of stopping.
As cars and trucks have continued to become longer lived, the number of operational vehicles in the United States hit a record high this year. Despite the automotive genocide that was Cash for Clunkers, the average vehicle on U.S. roads has grown in age since the financial crisis. Either through necessity or personal preference, Americans are currently holding onto their cars longer than ever before.
According to IHS Markit, the average age of light trucks and cars reached 11.6 years in 2016. The information analysis firm, which collected and analyzed registration data, estimates that the increase in age also accounts for the record 264 million light vehicles currently on U.S. roads.
Even though the rate of increase has slowed against higher-than-average new car sales, IHS Markit Director Mark Seng expects road-going cars to continue getting older. Why? Manufacturers continue improving the build-quality of new vehicles, and consumers seem more willing to maintain them.
“Quality of new vehicles continues to be a key driver of the rising average vehicle age over time,” he explains.
The new-car market also seems to have peaked this year. Reduced interest in new vehicle sales should create an acceleration beyond its traditional rate, just as it did in the early days of the recession. Seng anticipates vehicles aged 16 years or older to grow 30 percent to 81 million units by 2021. He also expects over 20 million registered to vehicles to be a quarter-century old in roughly five years.
That’s 20 million cars and trucks eligible for historic plates by 2021.
With more cars on the road getting older by the minute, there is money to be made for anyone in the parts replacement, repair, or automotive service industries. AutoZone has seen shares of its stock nearly double in the last three years and servicing centers are frequently the most profitable portion of an automotive dealership.
“Increasing numbers of vehicles on the road builds a new business pipeline for the aftermarket,” Seng said. “A larger fleet means more vehicles that will need repair work and service in the future.”
A staunch consumer advocate tracking industry trends and regulation. Before joining TTAC, Matt spent a decade working for marketing and research firms based in NYC. Clients included several of the world’s largest automakers, global tire brands, and aftermarket part suppliers. Dissatisfied with the corporate world and resentful of having to wear suits everyday, he pivoted to writing about cars. Since then, that man has become an ardent supporter of the right-to-repair movement, been interviewed on the auto industry by national radio broadcasts, driven more rental cars than anyone ever should, participated in amateur rallying events, and received the requisite minimum training as sanctioned by the SCCA. Handy with a wrench, Matt grew up surrounded by Detroit auto workers and managed to get a pizza delivery job before he was legally eligible. He later found himself driving box trucks through Manhattan, guaranteeing future sympathy for actual truckers. He continues to conduct research pertaining to the automotive sector as an independent contractor and has since moved back to his native Michigan, closer to where the cars are born. A contrarian, Matt claims to prefer understeer — stating that front and all-wheel drive vehicles cater best to his driving style.
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Me and my wife own 5 vehicles, averaging 20 years old. Take out the two oldest which are over 30 and only used as weekend cruisers and our average is then 11 years old, right on the stats. Our newest is my 2006 truck, bought used in 2010. We then have my 2005 DD car (bought new) and my wife's 2004 van, bought used in 2011. They are all paid for years ago. Though the temptation is sometimes high to get a newer one, comparing our low yearly maintenance cost to new car payments is a no-brainer. I guess we will only upgrade when one of ours quits or is crashed.
For comparison, on the other side of the Atlantic, the average age of cars on the road in the UK is 7.7 years (the most recent figures I can find are from 2014). https://www.smmt.co.uk/2014/03/decades-fastest-growth-sees-almost-32-million-cars-road/ Rust is still a factor, but many older cars end up in the junkyard because they have failed our strict annual safety inspection, and the cost of fixing them exceeds their market value.