Chicago Fed: Party Will Continue Into 2017, Over 17 Million Vehicle Sales Forecast
At the 23rd Automotive Outlook Symposium held in Detroit last week, participants representing manufacturing, banking, consulting and academia offered up predictions for 2016 and 2017. The general consensus: we’re in for a good time, possibly for a long time. The sales party will continue beyond 2017.
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which compiled median results from the symposium, the forecast predicts a total of 17.3 million vehicles sold in the United States this year. In 2017, the total number of sales is expected to dip ever so slightly to 17.2 million vehicles.
Other predictions from the symposium forecast minimal increases in the price of oil, from $45.00/barrel in 2016 to $48.92/barrel in 2017, which should further drive the demand for trucks and SUVs. Unemployment is expected to go down by a tenth of a point, while housing starts are forecast to increase.
In 2015, the United States experienced negative industrial production of -1.6 percent. That tide is also expected to turn in 2016 and 2017 toward positive territory.
Overall, the outlook looks fairly peachy, which makes for a rather uninteresting news day.
More by Mark Stevenson
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Any unit/branch of the Federal Reserve has forecasting skills rivaling one of those Magic 8 Balls.
the numbers that puzzle me are those of "real residential investment" and "housing starts". They show a downward trend for the RRI. Wouldn't there be an increase in RRI if housing starts are predicted to climb? Increased housing starts would mean and increase in residential investment. Anyone with an explanation? Thanks.
This is the housing bubble repeated in exactly the same manner except on car loans. It's amazing that the Fed is completely blind to the issue here. At some point the people who can't afford these car loans are going to start to default, and the lenders will stop issuing the insane numbers of sub-prime loans, and sales will fall off of a cliff.
The Fed gave us great data back in 2006 and 2007.