Elon Musk: 500-mile EVs By 2025
Speaking at the Barron’s Investment Conference last week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk predicted EVs would be good for 500 miles per charge by 2025.
According to Green Car Reports, Musk believed such vehicles would be possible in 10 years, but tempered those expectations by cautioning that more assembly and battery production facilities would be needed to realize that future.
At present, smaller lithium-ion cells have fallen in production costs at an average of 7 percent each year since the early 1990s.
Larger cells may be on par, as well: General Motors’ Mark Reuss says the automaker will pay $145/kWh for the cells used in the 2017 Chevrolet Bolt, set to hit showrooms by the end of 2016 at the earliest. That figure is lower than the considerable $200/kWh some have speculated that Tesla is spending for their batteries. (It’s probably lower than that)
With more volume from Musk’s Gigafactory and other battery manufacturers, and at the current average rate of cost-reduction, a 500-mile pack in 2025 would cost as much to produce as a 250-mile pack is today, if not less, according to the report.
I toyed around with the idea of applying for a Service Manager position with Tesla, but then reconsidered where they are as a company. I realized that if Tesla isn't careful, they could very easily become the next Tandy or Gateway. Tesla builds cars in a market already flooded with automobile manufacturers. Tesla cannot compete on volume. So when the mainstream automakers start getting serious about EV's, Tesla will no longer be the only practical EV option. Tesla won't be able to spread out production costs out across multiple platforms, powerplant options and throughout the world market.
God's speed Mr. Musk. I don't know if we are worth saving to reach the 22nd Century, but at least someone is trying. I had hoped that mankind would go to space and disseminate among the stars. It seems now that is not a likely future. Most people don't have any clue what to do, and therefore deny and ignore the current pickle/predicament. God bless you.
Excellent customer service is what Gateway had until they were outpaced. The requirement of the Tesla Service manager position I looked into did stress that a high CSI must be achieved. But there are a lot of reasons for low CSI, one of which is that more people than ever expect (budget?) to never pay for maintenance and repairs. So they take out their frustration on the service department's survey.
I think a 500 mile EV has a bad cost/benefit ratio for most people. If you shoot for 250 mile range, you can get by with LESS than half the battery size and have much better acceleration and lower cost, because you'll be saving a lot of weight. An optional, augmented frunk-battery or something for those who want to make that tradeoff might be beneficial though.