Report: Gigafactory Battery Cost As Low As $165/kWh By 2025

Cameron Aubernon
by Cameron Aubernon

One of the main goals of Tesla’s Gigafactory is to bring down battery pack costs to just under $100 per kilowatt-hour within 10 years. That goal may be harder to achieve, however, according to one skeptic.

Charged Electric Vehicles reports Dr. Menahem Anderman of Advanaced Automotive Batteries recently released a report (one that few, especially TTAC, are willing to pay $2,800 to read in full) about Tesla’s battery tech and its role in the grand scheme of electrification.

In particular, Anderman expresses his doubts that Tesla can actually bring down pack costs to below $100/kWh before 2025:

Our assessment shows that pack pricing for the 2025 time scale could be as low as $167/kWh… Pack cost much below $200/kWh is unlikely before 2020.

Further, he doesn’t believe the automaker can also bring a $35,000 EV to market by 2017, proclaiming the upcoming Model 3’s price tag “will be in the range of $50k-80k,” and that the Gigafactory’s use of solar power is “mostly for image and political reasons.”

Cameron Aubernon
Cameron Aubernon

Seattle-based writer, blogger, and photographer for many a publication. Born in Louisville. Raised in Kansas. Where I lay my head is home.

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  • VtecJustKickedInYo VtecJustKickedInYo on Sep 23, 2014

    I am wondering how Tesla will be able to meet the labor requirements for this Facility. I know it is by Reno but I wonder if the surrounding areas will be able to support an influx of x number of new facility employees?

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    • Stuki Stuki on Sep 23, 2014

      I'm only exaggerating a tiny bit by saying I personally know that many engineer/tech people in Santa Clara alone, who are chomping at the bit to make the move. Silicon Valley is becoming the domain of young guys with big ambitions. 4 guys to a $5k/month 2 bedroom apartment in a permanently polluted rush hour where even Top Ramen is expensive; is only acceptable as long as the dream is alive. Once the 9 out of 10 of those guys who did not get bought out or IPOed accept it ain't gonna happen, the only ting keeping them is the dearth of employment opportunities outside the pressure cooker. Reno/Tahoe is an incredibly shrewd move for Tesla recruitment wise. And also in terms of being able to move activity to a lower cost/lower regulated state, should Ecars get mainstream enough that competitive pressures starts becoming more important political correctness considerations.

  • Xeranar Xeranar on Sep 23, 2014

    As one PhD to another, sorry you may be right and Tesla can't do it but sitting there on your pedestal proclaiming yourself a battery authority isn't going to win you my respect. If this was a peer reviewed analysis I would sadly agree with them but his analysis seems to be seriously pessimistic compared to other active participants. Maybe he's ahead of the curve on all this but it sounds like a bit of navel gazing for some face time. The other general sources agree that Tesla's goal of $100/KwH goal is high but not so out of reach as to be insane. His estimate is almost $50-70 higher than every other report I've seen.

    • SCE to AUX SCE to AUX on Sep 23, 2014

      Agreed. Tesla is often spinning positive, but they will surely be much more competitive than he predicts.

  • Corey Lewis Corey Lewis on Sep 23, 2014

    Oh no a giant dropped their iPhone in the desert!

    • See 2 previous
    • Corey Lewis Corey Lewis on Sep 23, 2014

      @Xeranar It's very annoying to me that phone companies (now they've all the same tech) must resort to "different shape" or "larger screen" as their gimmick. The trend seems toward the latter of those options.

  • 3Deuce27 3Deuce27 on Sep 27, 2014

    This plant could become obsolete and maybe not long after it opens. Is the storage density that would allow 500 miles, or even 1,855 miles between charges, just around the corner, at a price point that would also quickly obsolete fueled vehicles. Lets hope so.