New car registrations dropped a painful 16.3 percent in Europe in an acceleration of a long, and initially slow a downward trend. The European carmaker association ACEA calls the decline ”the steepest recorded in a month of December since 2008.” For the year the EU market was down 8.2 percent to 12,053,904 units, which is the “lowest level recorded since 1995,” says the ACEA.
Most of the Europe’s volume markets recorded a double-digit downturn ranging from -14.6 percent in France to -16.4 percent in Germany, -22.5 percent in Italy and -23.0 percent in Spain. The UK was the only volume market to post growth (+3.7 percent).
Industry contacts in Europe explain the acceleration not with a decreasing reluctance to buy cars. “A lot of people stopped buying cars long ago,” said a contact at a large European OEM, “but the dealers continued to buy. This is coming to an end.” He was alluding to the phenomenon of “one day registrations” where dealers buy the car to make their quota and to collect the incentive money, only to put the car up for sale “used” the next day at prices of sometimes 30 percent below list. When sold, these new cars then show up in the used car registration numbers.
In the meantime, supply and production have been adjusted, the bulge has worked itself through the anaconda and has been digested. We can expect sales data that more reflect real buying behavior.
| EU New passenger car registrations 2012 | |||||
| January – December | |||||
| %Share | Units | Units | % Chg | ||
| ’12 | ’11 | ’12 | ’11 | 12/11 | |
| ALL BRANDS** | 12,053,904 | 13,130,466 | -8.2 | ||
| VW Group | 24.7 | 23.0 | 2,977,416 | 3,026,192 | -1.6 |
| VOLKSWAGEN | 12.8 | 12.3 | 1,541,643 | 1,616,483 | -4.6 |
| AUDI | 5.6 | 5.0 | 673,647 | 653,427 | +3.1 |
| SEAT | 2.1 | 2.3 | 251,528 | 296,145 | -15.1 |
| SKODA | 3.9 | 3.5 | 465,341 | 458,209 | +1.6 |
| Others (1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | 45,257 | 1,928 | +2247.4 |
| PSA Group | 11.9 | 12.5 | 1,431,063 | 1,643,457 | -12.9 |
| PEUGEOT | 6.4 | 6.8 | 774,435 | 889,264 | -12.9 |
| CITROEN | 5.4 | 5.7 | 656,628 | 754,193 | -12.9 |
| RENAULT Group | 8.5 | 9.7 | 1,030,321 | 1,273,178 | -19.1 |
| RENAULT | 6.6 | 7.8 | 795,972 | 1,026,736 | -22.5 |
| DACIA | 1.9 | 1.9 | 234,349 | 246,442 | -4.9 |
| GM Group | 8.2 | 8.7 | 984,177 | 1,142,117 | -13.8 |
| OPEL/VAUXHALL | 6.8 | 7.4 | 815,961 | 968,550 | -15.8 |
| CHEVROLET | 1.4 | 1.3 | 167,917 | 173,083 | -3.0 |
| GM (US) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 299 | 484 | -38.2 |
| FORD | 7.6 | 8.0 | 910,318 | 1,048,814 | -13.2 |
| FIAT Group | 6.5 | 7.1 | 779,606 | 929,551 | -16.1 |
| FIAT | 4.7 | 5.1 | 570,980 | 673,401 | -15.2 |
| LANCIA/CHRYSLER | 0.8 | 0.8 | 92,446 | 102,122 | -9.5 |
| ALFA ROMEO | 0.7 | 1.0 | 86,858 | 125,924 | -31.0 |
| JEEP | 0.2 | 0.2 | 25,673 | 22,211 | +15.6 |
| Others (2) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3,649 | 5,893 | -38.1 |
| BMW Group | 6.4 | 5.9 | 767,541 | 781,248 | -1.8 |
| BMW | 5.1 | 4.7 | 614,779 | 618,029 | -0.5 |
| MINI | 1.3 | 1.2 | 152,762 | 163,219 | -6.4 |
| DAIMLER | 5.3 | 5.0 | 633,142 | 652,790 | -3.0 |
| MERCEDES | 4.7 | 4.4 | 565,161 | 575,243 | -1.8 |
| SMART | 0.6 | 0.6 | 67,981 | 77,547 | -12.3 |
| TOYOTA Group | 4.2 | 4.0 | 507,731 | 523,909 | -3.1 |
| TOYOTA | 4.0 | 3.8 | 483,131 | 498,384 | -3.1 |
| LEXUS | 0.2 | 0.2 | 24,600 | 25,525 | -3.6 |
| NISSAN | 3.5 | 3.4 | 417,636 | 445,826 | -6.3 |
| HYUNDAI | 3.4 | 2.9 | 414,827 | 379,144 | +9.4 |
| KIA | 2.7 | 2.2 | 327,995 | 287,388 | +14.1 |
| VOLVO CAR CORP. | 1.8 | 1.8 | 212,578 | 235,841 | -9.9 |
| SUZUKI | 1.2 | 1.3 | 144,292 | 167,071 | -13.6 |
| HONDA | 1.1 | 1.1 | 133,462 | 142,436 | -6.3 |
| JAGUAR LAND ROVER Group | 1.0 | 0.7 | 120,033 | 95,420 | +25.8 |
| LAND ROVER | 0.8 | 0.6 | 96,847 | 72,793 | +33.0 |
| JAGUAR | 0.2 | 0.2 | 23,186 | 22,627 | +2.5 |
| MAZDA | 0.9 | 1.0 | 114,208 | 128,721 | -11.3 |
| MITSUBISHI | 0.6 | 0.8 | 67,888 | 101,337 | -33.0 |
| OTHER** | 0.7 | 1.0 | 79,669 | 126,026 | -36.8 |
| Source: ACEA | |||||
For the year, the Volkswagen Group weathered the downturn with only a 1.6 percent loss, and a 1.7 percent gain in Market share. GM, Ford and Fiat had to digest double digit losses, so did PSA and Renault.
| EU New passenger car registrations December 2012 | |||||
| December | |||||
| %Share | Units | Units | % Chg | ||
| ’12 | ’11 | ’12 | ’11 | 12/11 | |
| ALL BRANDS** | 799,407 | 955,537 | -16.3 | ||
| VW Group | 23.3 | 23.3 | 186,347 | 222,492 | -16.2 |
| VOLKSWAGEN | 11.7 | 12.6 | 93,309 | 120,021 | -22.3 |
| AUDI | 4.7 | 4.8 | 37,247 | 45,964 | -19.0 |
| SEAT | 2.3 | 2.3 | 18,637 | 21,994 | -15.3 |
| SKODA | 4.2 | 3.6 | 33,811 | 34,388 | -1.7 |
| Others (1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | 3,343 | 125 | +2574.4 |
| PSA Group | 11.2 | 11.5 | 89,710 | 109,666 | -18.2 |
| PEUGEOT | 6.2 | 6.1 | 49,694 | 58,276 | -14.7 |
| CITROEN | 5.0 | 5.4 | 40,016 | 51,390 | -22.1 |
| RENAULT Group | 9.3 | 9.7 | 74,652 | 92,237 | -19.1 |
| RENAULT | 6.9 | 7.7 | 55,300 | 73,659 | -24.9 |
| DACIA | 2.4 | 1.9 | 19,352 | 18,578 | +4.2 |
| GM Group | 7.8 | 9.0 | 62,640 | 86,044 | -27.2 |
| OPEL/VAUXHALL | 6.5 | 7.4 | 52,130 | 70,657 | -26.2 |
| CHEVROLET | 1.3 | 1.6 | 10,500 | 15,331 | -31.5 |
| GM (US) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10 | 56 | -82.1 |
| FORD | 6.6 | 7.5 | 52,475 | 71,884 | -27.0 |
| FIAT Group | 6.2 | 6.3 | 49,311 | 60,010 | -17.8 |
| FIAT | 4.6 | 4.5 | 36,424 | 42,798 | -14.9 |
| LANCIA/CHRYSLER | 0.7 | 0.8 | 5,529 | 7,227 | -23.5 |
| ALFA ROMEO | 0.6 | 0.8 | 4,984 | 7,713 | -35.4 |
| JEEP | 0.3 | 0.2 | 2,204 | 1,988 | +10.9 |
| Others (2) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 170 | 284 | -40.1 |
| BMW Group | 7.9 | 6.6 | 63,171 | 62,993 | +0.3 |
| BMW | 6.4 | 5.1 | 50,810 | 49,033 | +3.6 |
| MINI | 1.5 | 1.5 | 12,361 | 13,960 | -11.5 |
| DAIMLER | 5.8 | 5.3 | 46,519 | 50,965 | -8.7 |
| MERCEDES | 5.4 | 4.8 | 42,893 | 45,915 | -6.6 |
| SMART | 0.5 | 0.5 | 3,626 | 5,050 | -28.2 |
| TOYOTA Group | 4.5 | 4.8 | 36,051 | 45,965 | -21.6 |
| TOYOTA | 4.4 | 4.6 | 34,985 | 43,704 | -20.0 |
| LEXUS | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1,066 | 2,261 | -52.9 |
| NISSAN | 3.4 | 3.3 | 26,999 | 31,104 | -13.2 |
| HYUNDAI | 4.2 | 3.2 | 33,337 | 30,177 | +10.5 |
| KIA | 3.0 | 2.3 | 23,702 | 22,195 | +6.8 |
| VOLVO CAR CORP. | 2.2 | 1.8 | 17,565 | 17,109 | +2.7 |
| SUZUKI | 1.1 | 1.3 | 8,543 | 12,325 | -30.7 |
| HONDA | 1.1 | 1.0 | 9,029 | 9,630 | -6.2 |
| JAGUAR LAND ROVER Group | 1.1 | 0.9 | 8,912 | 8,327 | +7.0 |
| LAND ROVER | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7,023 | 6,637 | +5.8 |
| JAGUAR | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1,889 | 1,690 | +11.8 |
| MAZDA | 1.0 | 0.8 | 7,695 | 7,253 | +6.1 |
| MITSUBISHI | 0.6 | 0.6 | 4,643 | 6,191 | -25.0 |
| OTHER | -0.2 | 0.9 | -1,894 | 8,970 | -121.1 |
| Source: ACEA | |||||
In December, Volkswagen registered similar losses as those of its major competitors. However, a lot of this goes on account of the Golf 7 launch. It had started in November and still hasn’t reached all of Europe. Audi and Seat however also did hurt.
Data are available as Excel file here and as PDF here. A historical series of yearly data, going back until 1990 can be downloaded here.
Interesting how Jeep is the only good news for the FIAT group, and Lancia/Chrysler brand is the “least bad” of the bad news. Growth in market share for Hyundai/Kia is also impressive.
A few observations:
Interestingly PSA did better than Renault, Opel, Ford and Fiat.
Hyundai and Kia are incredible, taken together they sell almost as many cars as Renault which had traditionally been the second biggest Euro brand.
Premium brands do not feel the pain, the well to do are much less affected by the crises.
Environmentalism is all about eliminating the middle class. Wealthy leftists are fully cognizant of the harm their policies do to the working class. It never stops them from pushing forward, just shapes their marketing efforts.
Geeze, do you have a deluded sense of the world.
It’s the financiers/corporate CEOs who have gutted the middle class by sucking $$ out of the middle class thru “financial engineering” (the dotcom bubble and crash followed by the RE bubble and crash, not to mention all the speculation in futures trading) and shipping jobs overseas to China.
Over the past 2 decades, we have seen the greatest transfer of wealth in the world – from the US middle class to:
1. Wall St./hedge funds/corporate/banking CEOs
2. China
3. Oil rich states
4. military industrial complex
Like I said, it just shapes their marketing campaign. The business elite and the leftist politicians that enact the policies that drive outsourcing to China are not two distinct groups. There’s a revolving door between the two business cards. Fortunately for them, most people respond as you do to brainwashing.
Based on the December figures, Hyundai/Kia are getting close to catching up to the combined sales of Toyota and Nissan.
Sure, sales are a little soft right now, but the long-term future is bright. Europeans are having kids like crazy and there’s no end in sight to the population boom. Regulatory hurdles are being swept away. Yes, manufacturers won’t be able to keep up with demand!
Wonderful sarcasm sir!
This crisis has shown at least financial industry and banking need much more regulatory hurdles. Yesterday’s EU regulation of the rating agencies (otherwise known as the writers of fiction dictated by the rest of the financial industry) may be a step in a right direction. Perhaps next can be the US hedge funds who until the last summer continued to place enormous bets against Euro working at the top of their ability to bring downfall to Eurozone and poverty to so many of its citizens.