By on August 29, 2012
Sales Forecasts August 2012
Forecast TrueCar Forecast Kelley
Units YoY Share Units YoY Share
Chrysler 142,593 9.60% 11.4% 142,600 9.60% 11.2%
Ford 191,456 9.50% 15.3% 191,600 9.60% 15.1%
GM 227,087 3.90% 18.1% 225,950 3.40% 17.7%
Honda 133,458 62.10% 10.6% 129,450 57.30% 10.2%
Hyundai/Kia 117,212 17.60% 9.3% 119,662 20.00% 9.4%
Nissan 97,022 6.00% 7.7% 105,000 14.70% 8.2%
Toyota 182,896 41.30% 14.6% 176,950 36.70% 13.9%
Volkswagen 47,069 32.80% 3.7% 53,500 50.50% 4.2%
Industry 1,255,392 17.20% 100.0% 1,273,000 18.70% 100.0%

When U.S. August sales numbers will be announced next week, TrueCar expects them to be up strongly. The Santa Monica forecaster predicts August new light vehicle sales to be in the neighborhood of  1,255,392 units, up 17.2 percent from August 2011. TrueCar’s forecast would translate into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 14.2 million new car sales, up from 12.1 million in August 2011.

Echoing the sentiments of Kelley Blue Book, which rendered its August forecast a week ago, TrueCar thinks that the month will be less glorious for the domestics.  Said Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for TrueCar.com:

“Domestics continue to lose market share as the strength of the Japanese recovery continues. Volkswagen is quietly becoming a serious player whose growth can’t be ignored.”

TrueCar’s forecasts are pretty much in-line with those of Kelley.

 

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18 Comments on “TrueCar Predictions: Detroit Loses Market Share In Strong August...”


  • avatar
    tresmonos

    But what you didn’t mention is that ‘Detroit’ marker share is up from July.
    Chrysler – 11.4 aug vs 10.9 jul
    Ford – 15.3 aug vs 15.0 jul
    GM – 18.1 aug vs 17.5 jul

    Incentive spending is down (except VW’s incentives are still high for it’s sales figures), overall sales are up. Good news for the industry.

    • 0 avatar

      It’s amazing how Chrysler is still on top after all this time. It’s because Chrysler has the superior product among the BIG 3.

      Excellent advertising doesn’t hurt either.

      • 0 avatar
        bd2

        How is Chrysler “on top” among the Big 3?

        They have the lowest marketshare and the highest incentive spending.

      • 0 avatar
        sunridge place

        It is always fun to try and ‘guess the thought process’ with the amount of incorrect information in the comments section of TTAC.

        I’m going to guess that ole bigtruck literally meant Chrysler is at the top location on the chart and didn’t realize that the OEMs were listed in alphabetical order, not in order of sales. But, your guess is as good as mine.

  • avatar
    CJinSD

    The UAW automakers still have about 45% of the US market. Good grief.

  • avatar
    el scotto

    Stacking them deep and selling them cheap. What can they do to put you in a car today? The Big 3’s quality has improved, most people don’t care who/where there car was made as long as the price is right. All the car makers have union labor ranging from radical, South Korea; somewhat radical, Europe; complacent UAW/CAW; to the shams of a Japanese company union.

    • 0 avatar
      highdesertcat

      I’ve been told by guys actually still making a living selling new cars, that today’s customers are much more prudent about what they choose buy than the customers prior to 2009.

      Back before 2009 it was wham, bam, thank you ma’am, the bigger the discount the better. Nowadays, I’ve been told, it’s, “How long is the warranty?” and, “How much can I get for it in trade?”

      In spite of all the people currently unemployed in the US, we still have a figure of over 90% of the people who are employed and many of those feel secure enough about their job and future to buy a home and/or a new car. Especially the military folks.

      So it comes as a surprise to me that actual buyers continue to flock to the non-domestic brands in spite of the bad rap Toyota got a couple of years back, and in spite of the diminished quality of Honda products.

      Nissan and Hyundai/Kia clearly seem to be making the gains, and since Chrysler is now a foreign-owned company, I include Fiatsler in the ‘gains’ column.

      • 0 avatar
        gslippy

        It doesn’t surprise me.

        Hyundai’s longstanding advantage is their 10/100 warranty and value proposition, which they continue to provide while being very profitable doing so. And now they’re leading in terms of design sculpture and product freshness.

        Toyota’s ‘bad rap’ was candy for the media, but the public didn’t bite because people suspected there was an element of human error in the situation. This suspicion was proven true in many individual cases.

        “Honda quality” is just a myth that dies hard. Their product design is very dated-looking to me.

      • 0 avatar
        highdesertcat

        gslippy, I think you may have nailed it. I know first hand the content and value Hyundai provides in the Elantra (bought one for my grand daughter last year) and their warranty is the best in the business as well. In our case, reliability as well has been outstanding!

        We all know that the F-series is the best-selling vehicle in America and that the Camry leads all other sedans in sales year after year. But considering the effort put into today’s bread-and-butter cars from Ford and GM, I would have thought the sales numbers would have been better for Ford and GM.

        Of course, the end-of-year sales numbers are what is going to tell the whole truth and nothing but the truth. Those are the ones that really matter. And it would not surprise me to see Ford and GM “continue to lose market share as the strength of the Japanese recovery continues”.

        Seems to me that the people who actually shell out the money for new cars are voting with their wallet. And those who voted with their feet in the past are not crawling back either.

  • avatar
    PenguinBoy

    I don’t think it is safe to infer “Detroit Loses Market Share” based on a comparison with August of last year.

    Many of the Japanese brands were way down last year due to their production capacity getting whacked by the Japanese Tsunami, Thai floods, and their inability to properly manage risk in their supply chains. Their rapid growth year over year is more a sign of their impressive recovery from last year’s disaster than customer preferences.

    A better indication of shifting market preference would be a comparison of market share from August 2010 to August 2012, or perhaps a comparison of market share over the past 60 months or so that would allow us to spot trends. That information might support the “Detroit Loses Market Share” observation, or it might not.

    • 0 avatar
      highdesertcat

      This is just a snapshot in time but if the trend continues, the annual sales numbers, usually published in January, will see the market share of the domestics (Ford and GM) reduced while the market share of VW and Hyundai/Kia will see marked improvement.

      The market share of the Japanese manufacturers should rebound to where it was pre-disasters, and should not change much by year’s end from what it was in 2008/2009.

      I don’t know about the rest of you guys, but I’m anxiously awaiting the annual sales data for 2012. From that we can extrapolate where the US auto industry and new-vehicle sales in America are heading, post-recession.

      Things are not going to get any worse for America. We can only get better from here. The recession is over, sales are picking up, confidence is growing, and the economy is stable and growing slowly. We still have well over 90% of the workforce employed and, although cautious, they are willing to spend.

      It really is a big deal, especially if you’re GM and have all your hopes pinned on your best-selling vehicle (the 2014 redesigned/upgraded Silverado) and the slew of other vehicles destined to compete against the fresh introductions from Nissan, et al.

      Time will tell how well GM’s strategy is going to work for them, but Ford really only has one best-seller and it is the F-series truck.

      Everything else Ford has put on the market or will put on the market won’t even come close to displacing the F-series or the Camry in sales.

      And if Hyundai and VW cultivate this value-thing further, watch out! VW may surprise a lot of us. Hyundai already has. Who knew? Hyundai?

  • avatar
    SherbornSean

    Honda rocks.

  • avatar
    Rday

    I think that there are some slow times ahead for the auto industry. Gas prices are starting to creep up again and depending on where they land, truck sales could start to suffer. And trucks make up most of Detroit’s profits. So alot of things could still happen. There are just alot of problems in the world economy and the future is up for grabs.

  • avatar
    billfrombuckhead

    Lot’s of cool competitive Detroit cars on the way or just entering the marketplace. Talked to some people today with a 2013 Escape and they were raving about the styling, performance and luxury. Dodge Darts, new Chevys and new Cadillacs on the way. 2013 Ram trucks will best the whole Japanese industry in truck technology and gas mileage instantly making the entire Toyota and Nissan truck lineups into antiques.

    • 0 avatar
      mkirk

      Unless of course I don’t want a truck that requires enlarging my driveway to be able to park it at my house.

    • 0 avatar
      GarbageMotorsCo.

      “2013 Ram trucks will best the whole Japanese industry in truck technology and gas mileage instantly making the entire Toyota and Nissan truck lineups into antiques.”

      Literally, since the Current Tundra has been around since 2007, Tacoma, 2005, Titan, 2006 and Frontier, 1998!

  • avatar
    GarbageMotorsCo.

    Now that Chrysler is onwed by the Italians, the import marketshare will forever be un-catchable by the remaining D-2.

    They can keep pumping up their fleet sales, but no amount of Rentibus, Impalas or Taurus’s will make up the difference. Detroit will never be the center of the Automotive Universe again. Say goodbye to the 60’s once and for all.

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