Grade The Analysts: Audacious Apprentice Takes Top Spot

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1John Sousanis (Ward’s)12.0%8.0%18.0%14.00.6%6.1%6.7%2Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)8.7%4.4%19.0%13.91.3%10.3%11.6%3Brian Johnson (Barclays)6.4%7.1%18.0%13.82.0%10.9%12.9%4Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book)7.3%1.4%20.0%13.91.3%13.7%15.0%5Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)9.1%2.9%17.0%13.82.0%13.4%15.4%6Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)5.2%4.4%19.0%13.82.0%13.8%15.8%7Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)7.0%1.4%19.0%13.82.0%15.0%17.0%8Patrick Archambault (Goldman)6.2%2.0%17.0%13.82.0%17.2%19.2%9Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)8.2%2.4%14.0%13.72.7%17.8%20.5%10Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)6.0%0.3%16.0%13.63.4%20.1%23.5%11Joseph Spak (RBC)7.7%5.9%NA13.91.3%108.5%109.8%12Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA14.00.6%300.0%300.6%13Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.00.6%300.0%300.6%14Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA13.91.3%300.0%301.3%15Christopher Hopson (IHS)NANANA13.82.0%300.0%302.0%Average7.6%3.7%18.0%13.8Actual15.0%7.1%20.3%14.1

Analysts polled by Bloomberg predicted June light vehicle sales to come in much lower. All analysts except one: John Sousanis of Ward’s predicted that this will be a good month. He nearly nailed the SAAR, and came closest to reality in his OEM forecasts.

A deserved top spot goes to the analyst who had joined the ranks of Bloomberg’s forecasters just two month ago. He immediately dared to give estimates for the Detroit 3, the only way to win this game. (Joseph Spak: Please give a guess on Chrysler. Any guess is better than none.)

Grade The Analysts favorite Jessica Caldwell takes 2nd. Jesse Toprak of TrueCar needs to tune-up his model.

Each month, TTAC grades light vehicle sales forecasts of analysts polled by Bloomberg. We use sales data as compiled by Automotive News and SAAR data as published by Autodata.


Comments
Join the conversation
  • Secret Hi5 Cream of mushroom interior looks good. Impractical for families and denim jeans wearers.
  • Matt Posky Hot.
  • Lou_BC Murilee is basically correct on the trim levels. People tend to refer to Ford's full-sized cars as "Galaxie 500" or "Galaxie's" even though that's just the mid level trim. I was never a fan of the '69 snout or any of the subsequent models. The vacuum controlled headlight covers typically failed. It was a heavy clunky system also found on the Mercury's like the Cougar. The XL's and LTD's could be purchased with factory bucket seats and a center console with a large shifter, similar to the type of throttle on an airplane. The late 60's era Ford cars had coil springs in the rear which rode nice. The shape of the fender wells did not lend themselves to fitting larger tires. The frame layout carried on to become the underpinnings of the Panther platform. I noticed that this car came with disc brakes in the front. There was a time when disc's were an upgrade option from drum brakes. Ford's engines of similar displacement are often assumed as being from the same engine families. In '69 the 429 was the biggest engine which was in the same family as the 460 (385 series). It was a true big block. In 1968 and earlier, the 428, 427, 390's typically found in these cars were FE block engines. The 427 side oiler has always been the most desired option.
  • Drew8MR Minivans are expensive new if you are just buying them for utility. Used minivans are often superfund sites in back compared to the typical barely used backseats in a lot of other vehicles and you aren't going to get a deal just because everything is filthy, broken and covered in spilled food and drink.
  • Arthur Dailey This is still the only 'car' show that our entire family enjoys. This is not Willie Mays with the Mets style of decline. More like Gretzky with the Blues. It may not be their 'best' work but when it works the magic is still there.
Next