Feds Predict The Future Of The Auto Industry, Foresee Chrysler Freefall, GM Stagnation

by Edward Niedermeyer

Updated: February 11th, 2021 Published: December 22nd, 2011

Automaker2008 model year2025 model year% ChangeAston Martin1,3701,182-13%BMW353,120550,66556%Chrysler-Fiat1,659,950768,241-54%Daimler287,330441,78654%Ferrari1,4507,658428%Ford1,770,8932,224,58626%Greely/Volvo98,397143,69646%General Motors3,095,1883,197,9433%Honda1,511,7791,898,01826%Hyundai391,027845,386116%Kia281,452460,43664%Lotus25231625%Mazda302,546368,17222%Mitsubishi100,729109,6929%Nissan1,023,4151,441,22941%Porsche37,70651,91538%Spyker/Saab25,95626,6053%Subaru198,581331,69267%Suzuki114,658124,5289%Tata/Jaguar-Land Rover65,180122,22388%Tesla80031,9743897%Toyota2,211,5003,318,06950%Volkswagen318,482784,447146%TOTAL13,851,76117,250,45925%

Reasonable minds can disagree about the wisdom of the auto bailout, but according to analysis by the EPA and Department of Transportation (based on data from the Department of Energy and auto forecasters CSM), the Government’s rescue of GM and Chrysler may not have been the best idea (at least from a market perspective). According to data buried in the EPA/DOT proposed rule for 2017-2025 fuel economy standards [ PDF here], Fiat-Chrysler is predicted to be the sick man of the auto industry by 2025, losing over half of its 2008 sales volume, while GM is expected to improve by only 3%, the second-worst projected performance (after Aston-Martin). In terms of percentages, even lowly Suzuki and Mitsubishi are projected to grow faster than The Mighty General. Ouch.

On the other hand, the proposed rule notes that data will be finalized before the final rule comes out. Besides, the agencies appropriately admit (in as many words) that projecting auto sales so far into the future is one hell of a crapshoot. Still, with the obvious exception of “Saab-Spyker” and with some skepticism about the projection’s optimism about overall market growth aside, these are not the craziest guesses I could imagine. Who knows what the future holds, but it certainly is a bit troubling that the government’s own data suggests the two automakers it bailed out may well have some of the weaker performances of the next 14 years. At least the Treasury could have sold off their remaining GM stock before this report was released…

#Bailout #CAFE #Chrysler #DOE #DOT #EPA #GM #Government #Projections #Sales

Edward Niedermeyer

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SCE to AUX on Dec 23, 2011

Such long-range predictions will match the quality of global warming predictions, or Popular Science future car stories from the 70s.

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- Loser on Dec 23, 2011
  
  Or the global cooling predictions of the 70's.
  
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Volt 230 on Dec 23, 2011

"Tesla almost 4,000% HA HA HA funny crap this is" , says Yoda

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