Feds Predict The Future Of The Auto Industry, Foresee Chrysler Freefall, GM Stagnation

Edward Niedermeyer
by Edward Niedermeyer
Automaker2008 model year2025 model year% ChangeAston Martin1,3701,182-13%BMW353,120550,66556%Chrysler-Fiat1,659,950768,241-54%Daimler287,330441,78654%Ferrari1,4507,658428%Ford1,770,8932,224,58626%Greely/Volvo98,397143,69646%General Motors3,095,1883,197,9433%Honda1,511,7791,898,01826%Hyundai391,027845,386116%Kia281,452460,43664%Lotus25231625%Mazda302,546368,17222%Mitsubishi100,729109,6929%Nissan1,023,4151,441,22941%Porsche37,70651,91538%Spyker/Saab25,95626,6053%Subaru198,581331,69267%Suzuki114,658124,5289%Tata/Jaguar-Land Rover65,180122,22388%Tesla80031,9743897%Toyota2,211,5003,318,06950%Volkswagen318,482784,447146%TOTAL13,851,76117,250,45925%

Reasonable minds can disagree about the wisdom of the auto bailout, but according to analysis by the EPA and Department of Transportation (based on data from the Department of Energy and auto forecasters CSM), the Government’s rescue of GM and Chrysler may not have been the best idea (at least from a market perspective). According to data buried in the EPA/DOT proposed rule for 2017-2025 fuel economy standards [ PDF here], Fiat-Chrysler is predicted to be the sick man of the auto industry by 2025, losing over half of its 2008 sales volume, while GM is expected to improve by only 3%, the second-worst projected performance (after Aston-Martin). In terms of percentages, even lowly Suzuki and Mitsubishi are projected to grow faster than The Mighty General. Ouch.

On the other hand, the proposed rule notes that data will be finalized before the final rule comes out. Besides, the agencies appropriately admit (in as many words) that projecting auto sales so far into the future is one hell of a crapshoot. Still, with the obvious exception of “Saab-Spyker” and with some skepticism about the projection’s optimism about overall market growth aside, these are not the craziest guesses I could imagine. Who knows what the future holds, but it certainly is a bit troubling that the government’s own data suggests the two automakers it bailed out may well have some of the weaker performances of the next 14 years. At least the Treasury could have sold off their remaining GM stock before this report was released…

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  • SCE to AUX SCE to AUX on Dec 23, 2011

    Such long-range predictions will match the quality of global warming predictions, or Popular Science future car stories from the 70s.

    • Loser Loser on Dec 23, 2011

      Or the global cooling predictions of the 70's.

  • Volt 230 Volt 230 on Dec 23, 2011

    "Tesla almost 4,000% HA HA HA funny crap this is" , says Yoda

  • Akear I just realized 80% of these EV vehicles producers are going to be liquidated within the next five years. It is not possible to survive by selling only 3000 vehicles a year. This reminds me of the dot.com bust of the late 90s and early 2000s. Those who don't learn from history repeat it.
  • 3SpeedAutomatic I drove a rental Renegade a few years back. Felt the engine (TIgerShark) was ready was ready to pop out from under the hood. Very crude!! Sole purpose was CAFE offsets. Also drove a V6 Cherokee which was very nice and currently out of production. Should be able to scoop up one at a fair deal.🚗🚗🚗
  • Inside Looking Out This is actually the answer to the question I asked not that long ago.
  • Inside Looking Out Regarding "narrow windows" - the trend is that windows will eventually be replaced by big OLED screens displaying some exotic place or may even other planet.
  • Robert I have had 4th gen 1996 model for many years and enjoy driving as much now as when I first purchased it - has 190 hp variant with just the right amount of power for most all driving situations!