Europe In May 2010: Dive! Dive! Dive!
Batten hatches! Europe is on an emergency dive. According to data just released by the ACEA, sales in May dropped by 9.3 percent compared to May 2009. Our Ford canary in the EU coal mine was right again: May numbers were worse than April numbers. In April, the EU market had been down 7.4 percent. But that’s not the worst part.
The really bad part is that May 2010 was the worst May in eight years, as the picture above illustrates in unabashed cruelty.
Growth in Europe is at an all-time low. Since November 2009, it has been going downhill, interrupted only in March due to expiring cash-for-clunker programs. As government support is being withdrawn, Europe has a communal case of cold turkey.
Country Ranking EU27, May 2010
MayMay% ChgRank’10’0910/09 %GERMANY1249,708384,578-35.1FRANCE2186,268210,442-11.5ITALY3163,700189,878-13.8UNITED KINGDOM4153,095134,858+13.5SPAIN5102,87371,160+44.6BELGIUM647,72537,976+25.7NETHERLANDS737,10730,857+20.3AUSTRIA829,05729,732-2.3POLAND***925,63825,326+1.2SWEDEN1024,99418,215+37.2PORTUGAL1119,23213,113+46.7CZECH REPUBLIC1215,88514,277+11.3DENMARK1312,1749,342+30.3GREECE1411,92825,997-54.1FINLAND1510,7017,237+47.9IRELAND168,6775,086+70.6ROMANIA178,65711,475-24.6SLOVENIA185,5514,778+16.2LUXEMBURG195,1584,479+15.2SLOVAKIA204,9308,469-41.8HUNGARY213,3884,512-24.9BULGARIA221,2912,173-40.6ESTONIA23769669+14.9LITHUANIA24658671-1.9LATVIA25344356-3.4EU 271,129,5081,245,656-9.3
In the country ranking, everything is back to what we were used to. Germany leads, with France, Italy, and the UK to follow. All with heavy losses. The only serious dislocation is in Spain with a 44.6 percent plus. Wait for the loud bang when that comes down.
Manufacturer Ranking EU27, May 2010
May%ShareUnitsUnits% ChgRank’10’09’10’0910/09 %ALL BRANDS1,129,5081,245,656-9.3VW Group122.121.8249,100271,467-8.2PSA Group213.913.3157,257166,012-5.3RENAULT Group310.59.0118,631112,058+5.9FORD Group49.49.9106,485122,711-13.2GM Group58.39.493,947116,559-19.4FIAT Group67.99.288,900114,937-22.7BMW Group75.55.161,57763,313-2.7DAIMLER85.24.958,68161,514-4.6TOYOTA Group93.94.643,79056,922-23.1NISSAN102.72.030,03525,478+17.9HYUNDAI112.52.327,70228,865-4.0KIA121.91.621,30320,279+5.0MAZDA131.31.114,30713,444+6.4HONDA141.31.514,19118,807-24.5SUZUKI151.21.714,08220,885-32.6JLR Group160.70.57,8296,080+28.8MITSUBISHI170.50.75,8998,407-29.8CHRYSLER180.30.33,3804,170-18.9OTHER1.11.112,41213,748-9.7
In the ranking of manufacturers, Volkswagen is still the unassailable king of the European hill. Their market share strengthened a bit, from 22.1 percent in April to 22.6 percent in May. Renault gains more than 1 percent in market share and bumps Ford from the podium. Daimler gains impressive 1.2 percent in market share and kicks Toyota off place 8. No major developments in the peanut gallery.
Manufacturer Ranking EU27, Jan-May 2010
January – May%ShareUnitsUnits% ChgRank’10’09’10’0910/09 %ALL BRANDS5,943,0965,833,487+1.9VW Group121.021.41,247,3601,247,365-0.0PSA Group213.912.9825,652751,767+9.8RENAULT Group310.58.6623,881499,589+24.9FORD Group410.310.3612,790603,300+1.6GM Group58.49.3499,182540,081-7.6FIAT Group68.39.2490,648534,552-8.2BMW Group74.94.7292,752271,946+7.7DAIMLER84.44.7264,364272,730-3.1TOYOTA Group94.35.0256,872292,240-12.1NISSAN102.82.1164,995123,686+33.4HYUNDAI112.62.3153,325134,887+13.7KIA121.91.6110,60992,249+19.9MAZDA131.41.883,452104,668-20.3HONDA141.41.881,747106,600-23.3SUZUKI151.31.580,03186,750-7.7JLR Group160.70.641,91334,242+22.4MITSUBISHI170.60.835,08843,865-20.0CHRYSLER180.30.417,10621,337-19.8OTHER1.01.261,32971,634-14.4
Lastly, the situation for the first five months. It will be interesting to watch Renault battle with Ford, GM duke it out with Fiat, and the odd race between Toyota and Daimler.
In the next months, the situation will look worse. The cash-for-clunker Dexedrine needs to work itself out of the veins and markets, and it will be very, very ugly. Keep that klaxon close.
If you haven’t enough of bad news, all data can be downloaded as PDF, and if you want to crunch numbers and grit teeth, as Excel table.
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So what is different in Spain and Portugal? Seat? And what has Renault done right? All new lineup? Major refresh? Massive pricedrops? Does anyone know what the average age of the lineups are for the manus? I'm working on the assumption that the oldest fleets are the ones with the greatest losses.
Weird that Belgium outsells Holland even though its population is only 2/3