China's Sales Growth Slows. TTAC Sales Oracle Right Again

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

Approximately 1 million passenger cars (including MPVs, SUVs, and Minivans) changed hands in China in May, up 23.2 percent from a year earlier, the lowest rate during the past 13 months. That according to the China Passenger Car Association, as reported in China Daily. This is not yet the total vehicle count, which should be reported by the CAAM a few days later. The passenger car number usually is within a few points of the CAAM number. Is that good or bad?

china s sales growth slows ttac sales oracle right again

As the picture on the left shows, the red-hot sales growth in China is slowing down. As we said before, it has to. We are comparing with near pornographic sales growth in the previous year. Anything more would be blowing up circuit breakers. Also, we note that again, TTAC’s patent-pending China sales forecast model has been vindicated. Despite GM’s attempts to throw us a curve ball. We calculated GM’s growth at 25 percent, and TTAC’s Growth-O-Meter (“GM minus a few”) is once more right on the money: It had said “China in the low 20s.”

Rao Da, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association, predicts that June will most likely be a repeat of May. He was quick to blame “the week-long production stoppage in Honda’s parts plant that ate into sales figures.” Come on …

Hu Maoyuan, chairman of China’s biggest automaker SAIC Group, cut his prediction for whole-year sales to 15.5 million units, with sales growth of 12.6 percent. Other analysts still stick with 20 to 25 percent growth this year, which would translate into 16 to 17m units for the year.

China’s automakers will boost their production capacity by 5 million units in total this year, bringing domestic auto production for the whole year close to 20 million units. That would be a 75 to 85 percent capacity utilization, quite healthy for China. Can’t say that for the folks in the video.

Join the conversation
2 of 15 comments
  • Whynotaztec Whynotaztec on Jun 08, 2010

    it's not just the cars; the person on the bike at 2:00 is a complete idiot

  • Michal Michal on Jun 09, 2010

    The licensing laws in China are very lax, where driver testing can be 'hurried along' by providing 'appropriate funds' to the tester. People who drive just a few days can get a full license. Chinese licenses are not recognised in some countries as being equivalent quality to their own for very good reasons. I have seen fully licensed Chinese drivers be confused by intersection give way rules. They would drive out into the intersection (and into the path of oncoming cars) and then decide where they wanted to go. Scary.

  • TheEndlessEnigma GM, Ford and Stellantis have significant oversupply of product sitting on dealer lots and banked up in holding yards across the country. Big 3 management is taking advantage of UAW's action to bring their inventories inline to what they deem reasonable. When you have models pushing 6 months of supply having your productions lines shut down by a strike is not something that's going to worry you. UAW does not have any advantages here, but they are directly impacting the financial well being of their membership. Who will be the first to blink? Those UAW members waving the signs around and receiving "strike pay" that is, what, 20% of their wages? UAW is screwing up this time around.
  • CEastwood Seven mil nitrile gloves from Harbor Freight for oil changes and such and the thicker heavy duty gripper gloves from Wally World for most everything else . Hell we used to use no gloves for any of that and when we did it was usually the white cloth gloves bought by the dozen or the gray striped cuff ones for heavy duty use . Old man rant over , but I laugh when I see these types of gloves in a bargain bin at Home Cheapo for 15 bucks a pair !
  • Not Previous Used Car of the Day entries that spent decades in the weeds would still be a better purchase than this car. The sucker who takes on this depreciated machine will learn the hard way that a cheap German car is actually a very expensive way to drive around.
  • Bullnuke Well, production cuts may be due to transport-to-market issues. The MV Fremantle Highway is in a Rotterdam shipyard undergoing repairs from the last shipment of VW products (along with BMW and others) and to adequately fireproof it. The word in the shipping community is that insurance necessary for ships moving EVs is under serious review.
  • Frank Wait until the gov't subsidies end, you aint seen nothing yet. Ive been "on the floor" when they pulled them for fuel efficient vehicles back during/after the recession and the sales of those cars stopped dead in their tracks