Deutsche Bank: GM Truck Sales to Tumble by 100k

Robert Farago
by Robert Farago
deutsche bank gm truck sales to tumble by 100k

And that's just the second half of '07. On Wednesday, Deutsche Bank automotive analyst Rod Lache informed his clients (and Forbes) that sales of The General's latest trucks and SUVs have peaked. "We are currently forecasting an 8 percent decline in GMT900 production in the second half based on a relatively flat absolute inventory levels," Rod wrote in his Dear John note to investors. "An assumption which increasingly looks optimistic based on the decline in segment volumes." In other words, GM's losing share in a declining segment. Although the estimate is not unexpected– given GM's recently announced big rig production cuts– as the housing slump gets worse, it looks like GM's cash cow is in the chute, heading straight to the packing house. So… what now?

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  • Jthorner Jthorner on Aug 24, 2007

    In 1975 trucks were around 25% of the US new vehicle market. In 2005 they were over 50%. I'm pretty sure that the industry is headed back towards that 25% number. The only question is which bag the car based UTEs get counted. Car based UTEs are essentially the station wagons of today and should be counted as cars IMO. People who really need F150 and larger class vehicles will keep buying them. Those who did so for fashion are probably over it. Good lightly used trucks are going to be plentiful in the used market for quite a few years as people who can do so move back to cars. Next year is going to be a great time to buy a 2-5 year old truck which has never towed nor carried a full load in it's life.

  • Jamesfletcher2 Jamesfletcher2 on Aug 25, 2007

    I am amazed how little mention of the real problem with the new GM GMT900 is in the main stream automotive press. I own both a pick-up and a number of cars because I have many different automotive needs and likes. An these new GM pick-ups have such an UGLY exterior that they are getting killed in the market place. IN the last three months or so, I have talked to many truck buyers that like GM trucks who were trying to find a new 'classic' GM truck (previous generation) that had the options they wanted so they did not have to buy the new ones. One great example is how high the rear wheel opening is but how small the wheels and tires are. In four-wheel drive models it makes the truck look like it has the wheels and tires from a small car. The only way to have the wheel opening look even OK is to have 20" performance wheels and tires. If you need a truck to haul and do work on your land. etc the last thing you want is performance tires off-road. I guess that is what you get when you have people designing trucks that do not know how they are really used by a wide group of purchasers. Also, GM has jacked-up the price of the Duramax diesel and Allison transmission. It is obvious that GM is having real trouble with the new diesel engine emission rules. They appear to have much more complex approach then Cummins does in the Dodge pick-ups and the new 2008 Cummins diesel option with the new six-speed HD transmission is far less money. And, buy the way, the Cummins diesel already needs the tougher 2010 emission rules now. Bottom line, GM really has messed-up their new pick-up design, which is even more of a mystery since they did such a good job on their new GMT900 based 2007 SUVs. Given how well Toyota did their homework with the new Tundra and the new Tundra sales; that Dodge has a totally new truck coming as an early MY 2009; and that Ford has a new (although also uglier truck) -- things do not look good for GM.

  • Tundra Tundra on Aug 25, 2007

    Ford's 2009 is far from all-new. It's just a heavy facelift, without a new engine. So Ford will continue to struggle. The Next Ram will be 400HP+, and the Tundra will match it in 2010. The GM is quiet and easy, but has obvious flaws against Tundra. That 6.2 better multiply, pronto. It is MUCH smaller inside, in every cab. And the new face is the worst of the class. No wonder it's sales are as flat as Lindsay Lohan!

  • Johnson Johnson on Aug 25, 2007

    That is correct. The 2009 F150 is not a full redesign. It gets a new interior and exterior but rides on the same platform. The new GM twins and the new Tundra were full redesigns. And at launch for 2009, the F150 doesn't even get all the hyped about TwinForce engines or the diesel. All of that comes in 2010 or 2011. It's going to be a long 3 years for Ford before those engines arrive.