Grade The Analysts: Edmund's Caldwell Does It Again

by Bertel Schmitt

Updated: January 5th, 2012 Published: December 2nd, 2011

grade the analysts edmund s caldwell does it again

November was a rough month on our analysts. The surprisingly strong showing of Chrysler threw everybody’s aim off. Real-time powered Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds takes the top spot again – but with a degree of precision that would have landed her back in the field in the preceding months. She won because the others did worse.

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)9.9%12.0%43.0%13.60.22%52.90%53.12%2Patrick Archambault (Goldman Sachs)5.1%11.0%43.0%13.41.69%52.90%54.59%3Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)7.9%9.6%43.0%13.41.69%53.30%54.99%4Seth Weber (RBC)7.6%13.0%40.0%13.32.42%52.60%55.02%5Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)6.3%10.0%38.0%13.32.42%57.70%60.12%6Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)6.3%9.2%38.0%13.41.69%58.50%60.19%7Rod Lache (DeutscheBank)6.5%6.1%31.0%13.41.69%68.40%70.09%8Brian Johnson (Barclays)9.2%10.0%17.0%13.50.95%80.20%81.15%9Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA13.60.22%300.00%300.22%10Itay Michaeli (Citigroup)NANANA13.50.95%300.00%300.95%11Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley)NANANA13.50.95%300.00%300.95%12Himanshu Patel (JPMorgan)NANANA13.41.69%300.00%301.69%13Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA13.41.69%300.00%301.69%14George Magliano (IHS Automotive)NANANA13.32.42%300.00%302.42%Average7.4%10.0%37.0%13.4Actual7.0%13.0%92.0%13.6

The November SAAR was guessed with high precision. The average of our analysts said 13.4 million, and the final result was 13.6. As for the Detroit automakers, those who had the guts to guess them (the only way to win this game) were in the ballpark on GM, were too pessimistic on Ford, and were off by a few universes on Chrysler: The best projection for Chrysler was less than half of the real result.

Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds wins with a dead-on prediction of the SAAR and the best of the bad guesses for the Detroit 3. She shares the podium with two financial analysts, Patrick Archambault of Goldman Sachs, and Peter Nesvold of Jefferies. Real-time data are no insurance against embarrassment: Jesse Toprak of TrueCar lands on place 5.

#BertelSchmitt #Caldwell #GradeTheAnalysts #November2011

Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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2 of 21 comments

Don1967 on Dec 02, 2011

I'm sorry, but what is the point of ranking stock analysts on a monthly chart again? I thought this sort of analysis went out with Nasdaq 5000.

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Thornmark on Dec 05, 2011
GM Channel Stuffing Surges To All Time Record http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gm-channel-stuffing-surges-all-time-record So much for "sales".

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