While America Slept. Monday, December 29, 2008

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt
A short overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. For the next two weeks, WAS will be filed from Tokyo.

GMAC to announce real soon now. GMAC “expects to soon announce the results of a debt exchange offer that is key to North America’s largest auto finance company’s capital levels,” says Reuters, citing a GMAC spokesperson. The successful swap is crucial for GMAC to become a bank, and to get under the TARP. The debt swap deadline expired Friday as planned, spokeswoman Gina Proia said, adding that the company expects to put out the results in “the near term.” Sounds like Farago’s Option A.

Charge! Carmakers worldwide are turning into Energizer bunnies, and enact plan B as in batteries. Nissan and NEC will invest 100 billion yen or more to manufacture enough large-capacity lithium ion batteries to equip a total of around 200,000 electric and hybrid vehicles a year in 2011 or later, The Nikkei (sub) writes. Honda and GS Yuasa Corp. plan to construct a factory in Kyoto for lithium ion batteries. Toyota and Panasonic are working on a joint-venture mass production of lithium ion batteries at a Shizuoka factory in 2009. Mitsubishi will start manufacturing lithium ion batteries in partnership with GS Yuasa. Volkswagen plans to develop automobile lithium ion batteries with Sanyo.

Getting real about EV: Taking the contrarian view, Bosch chief Bernd Bohr borrowed a line from Greenspan and cautioned against “irrational exuberance” when it comes to electric vehicles. “We should not tell the consumer that there will be an electrical vehicle in 2010 which is affordable and meets market demands” he said according to Automobilwoche (sub.) He expects small production runs before 2015, “but all will be heavily subsidized, either by the government or by companies that sell below cost.” Bohr figures, 80m units will be built worldwide in 2015. Of those, only 2.5m to 3m will be hybrids, and only 800K pure plug-ins.

Japanese oil burners: Europe is still big on diesel, and Nissan wants a part of it. Nissan Diesel Motor Co. will set up marketing offices in Europe next month to consider forays into such markets as Eastern Europe, North Africa and Turkey, the Nikkei (sub) writes. As the engines are targeted at trucks, one site will be inside the headquarters of Swedish truck maker AB Volvo and another on the premises of Renault Trucks SAS, a Volvo group firm in France.

Bu hao: Almost all Kia and Ford dealers in Beijing are witnessing losses “amid vanishing market confidence,” Gasgoo writes. No dealer of Chang’an Ford Mazda and Dongfeng Yueda Kia Auto can make any profits before the end of this year, the newspaper said. A salesperson at a Dongfeng Yueda Kia dealership told reporters that it loses some 2,000 yuan to 4,000 yuan on every car sold. Dongfeng Citroen and Dongfeng Honda are also losing money with almost each car that leaves the show room floors. Nationwide statistics show that 80% of China’s auto dealerships have become loss-making businesses.

Yet Another Car Maker: Undeterred by vanishing market confidence, Dongfeng Passenger Vehicle Company, a subsidiary of Dongfeng, has finished construction of its Wuhan plant as planned and is to start trial production, Gasgoo reports. The subsidiary had postponed its 2008 new car mass-production, but it is supposed to start production in earlier 2009, with results of their work to be seen at the 2009 Shanghai International Auto Show.

Room to grow: Shanghai GM and SAIC-GM-Wuling, the two Chinese joint ventures of GM, boast a joint capacity if 1.66m units, reports China’s official news agency Xinhua. However, they are using only 60 percent of it: The sales of GM China are expected to be slightly over 1m this year.

Plug it in: China’s Zotye Holding Group, a small car and medium sized SUV manufacturer in China, plans to launch a pure electric SUV model soon, Gasgoo says. The ESUV will be equipped with the lithium iron phosphate battery provided by Wanxiang Electrical Vehicle Co. A launch date for the vehicle is not available. Zotye produces the Fiat Multipla and Lancia Lybra under their own brand.

BYD builds more: Wang Chuanfu, president of BYD said he expects his company to release two more electric car models in 2009, in addition to the recent Chinese release of the What is keeping the cars from hitting U.S. shores are American government regulations, complains Chuanfu. He thinks that BYD will have their cars in compliance with US and European regs by 2011. “The new releases in China mean that the company will have three electric vehicles on the road in 2009, while no other major automaker has managed to produce even one,” sneers Gasgoo. According to BYD, the sixty-mile range battery that powers their F3DM can be charged to half capacity in just ten minutes at a specialized charging station. The hybrid can run purely as an electric vehicle (which it does for the first sixty miles), and then shift to a gasoline engine for greater range.

SAIC/ Ssangyong update: China’s SAIC said it and South Korea’s Ssangyong Motor are seeking support for Ssangyong from the Korean government and banks, Reuters reports. SAIC, which owns 51 percent of Ssangyong, said the two companies were also discussing with union representatives how to cut labor costs. Chinese analysts say a deal would eventually be worked out between SAIC and the Korean side to help the troubled automaker. “SAIC certainly does not want Ssangyong to go under as it is China’s first cross-border auto acquisition,” said Chen Qiaoning, an analyst with ABN AMRO TEDA Fund Management.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Enderw88 Enderw88 on Dec 29, 2008

    I've written (poorly) about the gorilla in the room with respect to EVs: the power plants.

  • Pf21 Pf21 on Dec 29, 2008

    The Chinese auto makers will get their share in the second stimulus package. Auto industry is one of the industries that the Chinese government deemed essential for China's future.

  • Bd2 Lexus is just a higher trim package Toyota. ^^
  • Tassos ONLY consider CIvics or Corollas, in their segment. NO DAMNED Hyundais, Kias, Nissans or esp Mitsus. Not even a Pretend-BMW Mazda. They may look cute but they SUCK.I always recommend Corollas to friends of mine who are not auto enthusiasts, even tho I never owed one, and owned a Civic Hatch 5 speed 1992 for 25 years. MANY follow my advice and are VERY happy. ALmost all are women.friends who believe they are auto enthusiasts would not listen to me anyway, and would never buy a Toyota. They are damned fools, on both counts.
  • Tassos since Oct 2016 I drive a 2007 E320 Bluetec and since April 2017 also a 2008 E320 Bluetec.Now I am in my summer palace deep in the Eurozone until end October and drive the 2008.Changing the considerable oils (10 quarts synthetic) twice cost me 80 and 70 euros. Same changes in the US on the 2007 cost me $219 at the dealers and $120 at Firestone.Changing the air filter cost 30 Euros, with labor, and there are two such filters (engine and cabin), and changing the fuel filter only 50 euros, while in the US they asked for... $400. You can safely bet I declined and told them what to do with their gold-plated filter. And when I changed it in Europe, I looked at the old one and it was clean as a whistle.A set of Continentals tires, installed etc, 300 EurosI can't remember anything else for the 2008. For the 2007, a brand new set of manual rec'd tires at Discount Tire with free rotations for life used up the $500 allowance the dealer gave me when I bought it (tires only had 5000 miles left on them then)So, as you can see, I spent less than even if I owned a Lexus instead, and probably less than all these poor devils here that brag about their alleged low cost Datsun-Mitsus and Hyundai-Kias.And that's THETRUTHABOUTCARS. My Cars,
  • NJRide These are the Q1 Luxury division salesAudi 44,226Acura 30,373BMW 84,475Genesis 14,777Mercedes 66,000Lexus 78,471Infiniti 13,904Volvo 30,000*Tesla (maybe not luxury but relevant): 125,000?Lincoln 24,894Cadillac 35,451So Cadillac is now stuck as a second-tier player with names like Volvo. Even German 3rd wheel Audi is outselling them. Where to gain sales?Surprisingly a decline of Tesla could boost Cadillac EVs. Tesla sort of is now in the old Buick-Mercury upper middle of the market. If lets say the market stays the same, but another 15-20% leave Tesla I could see some going for a Caddy EV or hybrid, but is the division ready to meet them?In terms of the mainstream luxury brands, Lexus is probably a better benchmark than BMW. Lexus is basically doing a modern interpretation of what Cadillac/upscale Olds/Buick used to completely dominate. But Lexus' only downfall is the lack of emotion, something Cadillac at least used to be good at. The Escalade still has far more styling and brand ID than most of Lexus. So match Lexus' quality but out-do them on comfort and styling. Yes a lot of Lexus buyers may be Toyota or import loyal but there are a lot who are former GM buyers who would "come home" for a better product.In fact, that by and large is the Big 3's problem. In the 80s and 90s they would try to win back "import intenders" and this at least slowed the market share erosion. I feel like around 2000 they gave this up and resorted to a ton of gimmicks before the bankruptcies. So they have dropped from 66% to 37% of the market in a quarter century. Sure they have scaled down their presence and for the last 14 years preserved profit. But in the largest, most prosperous market in the world they are not leading. I mean who would think the Koreans could take almost 10% of the market? But they did because they built and structured products people wanted. (I also think the excess reliance on overseas assembly by the Big 3 hurts them vs more import brands building in US). But the domestics should really be at 60% of their home market and the fact that they are not speaks volumes. Cadillac should not be losing 2-1 to Lexus and BMW.
  • Tassos Not my favorite Eldorados. Too much cowbell (fins), the gauges look poor for such an expensive car, the interior has too many shiny bits but does not scream "flagship luxury", and the white on red leather or whatever is rather loud for this car, while it might work in a Corvette. But do not despair, a couple more years and the exterior designs (at least) will sober up, the cowbells will be more discreet and the long, low and wide 60s designs are not far away. If only the interiors would be fit for the price point, and especially a few acres of real wood that also looked real.
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