#JointVentures

Volvo, with parent company Geely, is developing a lineup of premium A-segment vehicles aimed at the BMW 1 Series and Mercedes A-Class.

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in line with President Xi Jinping’s desire for opening the domestic economy to private and foreign investors, plans to relax restrictions on foreign ownership of joint ventures with local automakers in the face of those warning such a move would be the beginning of the end of the Chinese local auto industry.

PSA Peugeot Citroen, Dongfeng and the French government have reached an outline deal to raise $5.5 billion in capital through a planned share sale in a last-ditch effort by PSA to remain alive after General Motors walked out of a similar deal over the Iranian market last year.

The automotive industry lobby group China Association of Automobile Manufacturers is at loggerheads with Beijing over a rule change proposal that would ease restrictions on foreign ownership of auto manufacturing ventures. The fear, according to CAAM Secretary General Dong Yang, is that should the restraining bolt be removed, the local industry would lose control of the joint ventures they currently hold, if not the Chinese auto industry itself.

My fleeting 15:21 minutes of dubious fame.

The Global Automotive Forum is an annual confab of Chinese politicos, functionaries, industry leaders and wonks of the world. This year, it is in Chengdu, and the motto is “From volume leader to innovation leader.” The subhead could very well be: “What now?”

Speaker after speaker bemoans the fact that China is winning by sheer numbers, but is falling behind in the innovation race. The fractionalized Chinese car industry simply does not have the wherewithal to keep up with the big multinationals.

Conventional wisdom says that the Chinese will suck all the know-how out of their foreign joint venture partners, and once they are through with them, they’ll discard them like Dracula a bloodless virgin. As a thank you, the Chinese will flood foreign countries with cheap Chinese cars. The trouble with conventional wisdom is that it is rarely true, or wise. Actually, the Chinese are now worried that the foreigners amass too much power. “Foreign car producers have begun to take more control of their joint ventures in China, sidelining their Chinese counterparts from business partners to factory providers,” China Daily writes today. China Daily is owned by the Chinese government.

The Financial Times has revealed an insidious plot: “Foreign carmakers wishing to build new plants or add capacity in China’s burgeoning car market are being told by the government that if they wish to expand, they must develop a low-cost local car brand.”

It must be a REALLY slow news day (it is).

I came to China first in 2004 on a job for Volkswagen. Back when, and years thereafter, the foreigners at the joint ventures agreed (latest after the third beer at Paulaner) that eventually, their days will be numbered. “Once the Chinese have learned enough, they’ll kick us out,” was the lament. That was six years ago, and no sign of an expulsion from the Chinese paradise yet. On the contrary: The Chinese might invite the foreigners in for good. They are thinking about dropping the 50:50 joint venture requirement that forces foreign automakers to team up with local manufacturers.

End of last year, we reported that the Chinese government was publicly thinking about new regulations to shift a large chunk of cars bought by the government to home-grown brands. We are talking about a serious amount of money here. The government is the biggest customer of cars in China, with an annual budget of around $15b. Government purchases influence the whole market. To buy Chinese.

When I came to China for the first time in 2004, after-work congregations of foreign executives who worked for Chinese auto joint ventures usually went like this: Someone muttered into his Tsingtao beer, or something stronger: “The Chinese will want us out within eight years.” Upon hearing this, all others around him nodded gravely, and another round was ordered. Over the years, more and more expats were sent home to Detroit, Wolfsburg, and Aichi. The silly “twin” system (a foreigner and a Chinese on the same job) stopped. Of course, the open secret was never officially discussed, but the outcome appeared to be inevitable: The days of the foreigners are numbered.

It will be 2010 within a few weeks, and the foreign (U.S., European; Japanese) joint ventures are still seemingly safely ensconced in China. As reported umpteen times at TTAC, China has become a strategically important market for most auto manufacturers. Nobody thinks anymore that come 2012, China will kick all joint venture partners out.

Yet, here is the first step in that general direction: