#CammyCorrigan

A few days ago, I wrote about car sales all over Europe falling faster than a…..erm……really fast thing. I also wrote how this didn’t bode well for the UK car market. Well, the figures are in and, unfortunately, I wasn’t wrong – this time. It’s pretty bad. New car registrations fell 22.2 percent in October. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) also said that further declines are likely for the rest for the year. Oh goody(!) Looks like I’m going to have to find more words for “dropped”.

Shall we take a look at the carnage? It’s not for the faint of heart.

The Freep says GM has appointed a Vice President of diversity. And they’ll need one. GM’s post-IPO ownership roster shapes up to be quite, well, diverse. China’s SAIC appears to be gung-ho for the IPO. And it’s not just the Chinese government that likes the idea of owning a little bit of America.

Toyota’s legal problems are piling up. It is now being alleged that they killed a lawyer. The New York Daily News reports that 79-year-old lawyer Ernest Codelia Jr died of carbon monoxide poisoning and his partner, Mary Rivera was brain damaged. And their Lexus is being blamed. How come?

Australia is pretty much a stronghold for Toyota. Looking at the figures, it seems that Aussies like well-made, cheap reliable cars. And to be honest, who doesn’t like those kinds of cars? But what happens when someone else comes to your market, and does well what you do well? Well, you get worried.

History is written by the victors, or so the saying goes. You lose, not only do you get beaten up in real life, but also in the history books. Few losers come much bigger than Rick Wagoner. The man who oversaw the last slide into Chapter 11. Yep, there wasn’t much love out there for “Red Ink” Rick. Until a few days ago.

When GM was in its final throes (about 2000 onwards) it was quite easy to see that GM would go under. Even though they were posting records profits, anyone but the shills knew that these profits came from the SUV boom and not from any long term sustainable plan. That’s fair to say, right? So now let’s move to Toyota. The cry I hear, these days, is “Toyota is the new GM! Toyota is the new GM!” (Why people have to say things twice, I’ve no idea. I’m not deaf, just stupid.) And there is certainly some evidence to suggest that. Piling on the incentives, suspect quality, etc. But then something comes along which, seemingly, blows that theory out of the water.

BMW is on a roll at the moment. They’ve booted Mercedes-Benz (their most hated rival) off the number one slot in India, they’re making big steps in China and their profit is rising fast. That last point is the fulcrum of this article. You see, profit is where BMW is forecast to have problems. Not lack of profits, but the size of them.

Toyota is probably feeling a little unloved right now. The US government has been trying to burn them at the stake, Chinese buyers are shunning them and even the Canadians are even saying “No, eh?” (My experience of Canadians is pretty much limited to “South Park” and “Due South”). But love and good news can come from the most unlikely of places.

Toyota drops in China, Canada, The United States, Japan and (almost certainly) Europe, too. You’d think good news would be scarce. And you’re right, it is! But wait, there’s one!

The Vancouver Sun reports that pretty much, across the board and across the border, Canadian sales rose. GM’s sale rose 11 percent year on year, Ford’s sales rose 8 percent and is now within a whisker of taking the number one slot from General Motors. Honda’s sales grew 14 percent. As did Nissan’s at 4.5 percent. And Hyundai-Kia who reports rises of 8.6 percent and 17 percent, respectively. Even the smaller players had reasons to celebrate. VW went up 21.5 percent. Mitsubishi has a stonkingly good month with sales rising, YOY, by 27.2 percent. Even Volvo’s sales grew 13.9 percent. Yep. Life is good, north of the border. Except for one.

In the car world, the BRIC countries have already got their institutional market leaders. That’s how quick these markets are moving. General Motors and Volkswagen have an iron grip on the Chinese market, Suzuki and Hyundai have India in their palms. Fiat is king in Brazil. But Russia is still anybody’s game. Well, Renault and Nissan want to change that.

As U.S. car sales are forecast to be growing once again, spare a thought for those less fortunate than you. Namely, those poor people in Europe. While you’re the U.S. market is expanding, sales in the Old Country are a big NSFW mess.

The Sixth Sense. The “Saw” movies. The Vanishing (Original Dutch version). The Fight Club. What do all these films have in common? They are like the “Porsche-Volkswagen” saga. Always an unexpected twist. Let’s start at the beginning. When Porsche tried to takeover Volkswagen, it really was a case of the mouse biting the lion. The reality set in, the credit markets collapsed, and Volkswagen went from being the takeovee to the takeover…er (how I managed to pass English is a complete mystery to me). [ED. Takeoveror?] But like any good saga, there’s got to be a final bite and there’s a 30 percent chance this one will happen.

German media calls it the “second economic miracle.” The German industry is hitting on all cylinders, a lot driven by exports. Europe’s biggest economy is officially forecast to expand by 3.4 percent this year, equal to the rate of 2006 and the highest since German reunification in 1990. When the recession/credit crunch hit a couple of years ago, the mantra from management to the unions was quite clear. “We need concessions to keep the company competitive and prevent going under.” Unions gave the concessions and life went on. But now, the climate is different. Volkswagen announced massive profits and Ford are also rolling in it. Well, if things are that good… ?

As Herr Schmitt reported yesterday, it looked like it was going to be a bumper month for the Indian car market. In his article he mentioned that market leader, Maruti Suzuki posted a 39 percent gain, which is impressive considering production constraints is preventing them from selling any more. But let’s have a look at the other players in the Indian motor market.