#April2010

The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association ACEA released sales numbers for April. As predicted on Friday, the numbers are bad. For the first time this year, and for the first time in 10 months, numbers are negative. New passenger car registrations in Europe fell by 7.4 percent in April compared to the same month last year. They will get worse.

Never has there been so much confusion over the closely watched Chinese car sales than this month. A relatively unknown China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATRC), anointed by a report in Xinhua, had 40 percent growth for April. Then, all kinds of numbers came out. Chinese numerology was in an April disarray. Even TTAC’s in-house sales oracle, GM China became confused. First, GM reported a gain of 50 percent. A week later, the number was revised to 41.1 percent. (Which would indicate a Chinese market growth in the mid 30s.) We recommended caution. The last word on Chinese auto sales has the China Association of Auto Manufactures (CAAM). And the CAAM has spoken.

Together with record breaking sales, April brings another surprise to Brazil. VW über alles! Bring out the warm beer and fried sausages, let’s party like it’s the 90s and 80s and 70s and 60s again! VeeDub on top! Not so fast. It depends how you look at it …

The Japanese new car market, long believed to be down, out, and a victim of the dreaded demographic bomb, remains on its steep upward trajectory. With a little help from Japan’s benevolent government. Japan’s domestic sales of new cars, trucks and buses increased 33.5 percent from a year earlier in April, the Japan Automobile Dealers Association said today as per The Nikkei [sub]. That’s up nine months in a row. One brand is especially happy. Name starts with a T.

When German car sales exploded in 2009, fueled by government incentives, everybody knew there would be hell to pay in 2010. Sure enough, the market cratered in January and February. In March, new car registrations were down 26.6 percent, but at least, they had caught up with 2008 pre-carmageddon levels. So the thinking went: If the market continues that way, it might get back to its old normal, and the pull-forward theorists will be proven wrong. Then came awful April …

China’s ravenous appetite for new cars shows no signs of restraint. The Chinese news agency Xinhua quotes the China Automotive Technology and Research Center (CATRC), which says that sales of domestically made vehicles hit 1.39 million in April, up 40 percent from the same period last year.

Speaking of April sales, American automakers and industry watchers are expecting a jump of nearly Chinese proportions when April sales will be announced on Monday. Easy: We are comparing with an April of 2009, when everybody assumed we’ll never buy a car again.