Pandemic's Impact on U.S. Car Sales Won't Be Small: Morgan Stanley

This won’t be the last prediction you read that erases millions from the United States’ 2020 new vehicle sales tally.

Morgan Stanley now says the rapidly growing COVID-19 pandemic (the World Health Organization declared it one midday Wednesday) will send auto sales tumbling at a far steeper rate than initially forecasted. At the beginning of the year, of course, no one had heard of this illness.

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The Day After: Market, Analysts React to L.A.-area Explosion (of Disbelief)

Given what Tesla revealed last night, it seemed appropriate to reference a movie from the early ’80s — an era from which the automaker’s “futuristic” Cybertruck appears to have emerged. Looking like a stainless steel pup tent with a delicatessen counter serving as a dash, the Cybertruck’s Thursday night reveal generated a critical mass of hot takes, resulting in an megaton-level explosion of ridicule heard to the farthest reaches of space.

Perhaps even on Mars.

While the term “half baked” appeared to be one of the more popular descriptors for the vehicle (and may be a contributing factor to the vehicle’s design), market analysts are a sober-minded crowd. Friday morning, they let loose.

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Analysts: Recent Automotive Job Cuts Are Just the Beginning

Over the last six months, automakers have announced roughly 38,000 job cuts as part of global restructuring efforts. While such things are typically part of the normal ebb and flow of the industry, the ebb could be a prolonged one as manufacturers seek ways to mitigate the high cost of tech and figure out what their businesses should look like in the 21st century.

A litany of other issues are impacting jobs. China’s economy turned out to be less stable than presumed, trade tensions have escalated in practically every major market that builds cars, and most of the developed world appears to be nearly tapped out in terms of sales growth.

As a result, analysts are growing concerned that the layoffs we’ve seen thus far are just the beginning. But they’re not the only ones. Industry insiders are also willing to admit that times are changing — and rather drastically.

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Bark's Bites: Used Car Pricing Isn't Going Anywhere

As we reported just the other day, analysts are somewhat confused by the continued rise of used car prices to near-record highs, despite a flood of lease returns hitting the market.

This just goes to show you the stupidity of most people who call themselves “analysts.” There’s absolutely no reason to think that used car pricing will go anywhere but up in the near future. If these analysts had ever spent a single day in a used car department at a franchise dealership, they’d understand why. Unfortunately, they haven’t.

But guess what? Your friend Bark has! And I’m here to tell you why this used car bubble isn’t going to pop any time soon.

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Detroit Three Gain Market Share At Home In 2013

Detroit’s triumvirate of General Motors, Chrysler and Ford are on pace to gain market share at home against their European and Asian competitors when the final numbers for 2013 are released later today, thanks to American consumers finding the Detroit Three’s offerings more attractive than what the competition has to offer.

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TTAC Grades The Analysts: Edmunds Receives First A+

With full sales numbers reported for July, TTAC is proud to announce its first-ever auto analyst grades [analyst estimates via Bloomberg]. For now we’re simply grading SAAR projections, but we’ve included OEM projections where applicable, for your own comparison. For July, the top-rated analyst was Edmunds.com’s Jessica Caldwell, whose SAAR prediction was an uncanny .5% off the actual number. Congratulations to Jessica and the Edmunds team, as well as our other A-rated analysts, Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank and Peter Nesvold of Jefferies (who squeaked in with an A-). Hit the jump to see how we calculated our grades.

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  • JK I grew up with Dodge trucks in the US, and now live in Turin, Italy, the home of Fiat. I don't think Italians view this as an Italian company either. There are constant news articles and protests about how stalantis is moving operations out of Italy. Jeep is strangely popular here though. I think last time I looked at stelantis's numbers, Jeep was the only thing saving them from big big problems.
  • Bd2 Oh yeah, funny how Trumpers (much less the Orange Con, himself) are perfectly willing to throw away the Constitution...
  • Bd2 Geeze, Anal sure likes to spread his drivelA huge problem was Fisher and his wife - who overspent when they were flush with cash and repeatedly did things ad hoc and didn't listen to their employees (who had more experience when it came to auto manufacturing, engineering, etc).
  • Tassos My Colleague Mike B bought one of these (the 300 SEL, same champagne color) new around June 1990. I thought he paid $50k originally but recently he told me it was $62k. At that time my Accord 1990 Coupe LX cost new, all included, $15k. So today the same car means $150k for the S class and $35k-40k for the Accord. So those %0 or 62k , these were NOT worthless, Idiot Joe Biden devalued dollars, so he paid AN ARM AND A LEG. And he babied the car, he really loved it, despite its very weak I6 engine with a mere 177 HP and 188 LBFT, and kept it forever. By the time he asked me to drive it (to take him to the dealer because his worthless POS Buick Rainier "SUV" needed expensive repairs (yes, it was a cheap Buick but he had to shell out thousands), the car needed a lot of suspension work, it drove like an awful clunker. He ended up donating it after 30 years or so. THIS POS is no different, and much older. Its CHEAPSKATE owner should ALSO donate it to charity instead of trying to make a few measly bucks off its CARCASS. Pathetic!
  • RHD The re-paint looks like it was done with a four-inch paintbrush. As far as VWs go, it's a rebadged Seat... which is still kind of a VW, made in Mexico from a Complete Knock-Down kit. 28 years in Mexico being driven like a flogged mule while wearing that ridiculous rear spoiler is a tough life, but it has actually survived... It's unique (to us), weird, funky (very funky), and certainly not worth over five grand plus the headaches of trying to get it across the border and registered at the local DMV.