By on March 6, 2017

Barrett Jackson Scottsdale, Jan 2017

It’s the dream of us all, isn’t it? Knowing tomorrow’s lottery numbers. Correctly predicting the long-shot Super Bowl winner before putting down a big bet in Vegas. I don’t know about you, but as a gearhead I harbor similar fantasies about the Next Big Thing in collector cars.

The collector car market has waned somewhat from the breathless heights of 10 years ago. Sure, there are still pockets of crazy money — witness Hemi ‘Cudas that can still trade for outrageous sums, not to mention air-cooled Porsches and Pebble Beach with their Holy Grail Ferraris hammering away for many tens of millions of dollars.

The market is certainly seeing a massive rise in sales prices of Fox-body Mustangs. At Barrett-Jackson in Scottsdale this year, a relatively plain-jane 1989 Mustang LX Hatchback with 638 actual miles sold for a whopping $71,500. It’s original selling price 28 years ago was about $25,000 in inflation-adjusted dollars. A 1990 Mustang LX Convertible, originally created for an ill-fated 7-Up promotion, hammered away to its new owner for a jaw-dropping $82,500. While it’s true this particular example still had plastic on the seats and included rare promotional 7-Up material, a near six-figure price for a Fox-body Mustang is nothing short of flabbergasting.

Absent of specific examples, I also think the Integra Type-R and A80 Supra (twin-turbo, natch) will rise sharply in value over the next few years. Why? Well, some folks who lusted after these cars as teenagers are now of the age and financial position to spend some of their discretionary income. Let’s not discount the Playstation/Xbox phenomenon, which gave rise to a generation of gamers who longed achingly for a Nissan Skyline, despite only having seen one in pixelated form.

This gearhead heartily endorses the idea of sinking one’s retirement fund into a collector car. After all, if one buys the right vehicle, it’s entirely possible to sell it for a similar rate of return 10 years down the road. At that time, one will not only enjoy the extra money, but they’ll also have had a collector car in which to cruise for a decade. Plus, it’s awfully difficult to do a smoky burnout with a bank statement. Decisions such as these are why my accountant mercilessly yells at me on a regular basis, so I implore readers not to take any of the financial advice being dispensed here.

It’s tough to predict the future — ask any meteorologist — but we’re smarter than the average bear here at TTAC, right? What do you think will be the next car to skyrocket in value on the collector’s market?

[Image: © 2017 Matthew Guy]

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67 Comments on “QOTD: Place Your Bets?...”


  • avatar
    Chris Tonn

    Fifth-generation Chrysler/Dodge minivans, now that FCA has dumped the legendary Town & Country badge.

  • avatar
    87 Morgan

    As a collector car owner, I too wish I had this magic crystal ball. The imports are a good bet, but honestly finding one that has not been cut up to pieces is really hard. Full disclosure, I don’t look, but the ones that I see at cars and coffee are brutalized.
    I am certain that a clean Integra GS-R or two exists in some garage somewhere, but not very many.

    I am seeing more of the overlooked models in the past starting to crop up, 58′ Chevy Impala as an example. Another neat phenomenon that I really like to see are the budget builds. Less focus on 15k paint jobs and more on patina along with a craftsman style suspension coupled with a modern driveline that brings some 50’s whatever to life.
    The foxy Mustangs can only go so far in my opinion. As a former owner they are not that great and from a customization standpoint the world is your oyster under the hood, but no so much on the interior.

    • 0 avatar
      Arthur Dailey

      Morgan, I certainly agree regarding the paint jobs. Spending massive amounts on paint jobs that to my eye at least are rather ugly seems outlandish. Why not apply what the factory offered. Let people see the car as it was intended to look.

      In 1974 I worked at a garage run by a couple of brothers who were well known for their success at strip racing.

      In the garage was an original Hemi ‘Cuda that had never been street legal. The odometer read double digits.

      They still had it garaged in the early 80’s then I lost track of them.

      Wonder what that would be worth now?

  • avatar
    ajla

    1. Unmodified Terminator Cobra
    2. Vipers
    3. C6 Z06
    4. Unmodified Lancer Evolutions

    • 0 avatar
      raph

      Seems like a good bet, Cobros will be happy, especially as they ease into mid-life and get out of the child rearing phase and have extra income available to purchase unmolested or restored models.

      I’d like a C6 Z myself, I’m not a GM loyalist nor a particular fan of the vette but there is just something about the big engine naturally aspirated Z06 that is really appealing.

    • 0 avatar
      True_Blue

      I’m with you on the Termi, early Vipers, and Evos. These were young men’s fantasy cars and unfulfilled fantasies bring full wallets.

      For some reason, I just can’t get behind the Vettes. They still, at least in C6 guise, have the “old man” stigma – even if they are blindingly fast.

      Big money buys nostalgia and youth, not always outright performance. C4 ZR1s are still $30K cars, for example (and yeah, I know about C5 Z/06s).

    • 0 avatar
      raph

      FD RX7 should probably be on that list as well.

  • avatar
    dividebytube

    A few years ago my (now departed) co-worker bought a minty ’96 Cobra with low miles. He paid more than I was willing – $15k if I remember correctly.

    Some performance cars – especially low number factory specials – will go up, or maintain their value due to rarity.

    Side note: I see, according to Motor Trend, that the ’96 Mustang GT has a 0-60 of 6.8secs. Oh how times have changed.

  • avatar
    omer333

    1. Impreza RS, especially the coupe version

    2. Z32 300zx

    3. Lancer Evo

    4. last-gen Supra Turbo

    • 0 avatar
      True_Blue

      Mk. IV Supras are already in this bracket, $50-$60K for nice ones! My Evo IX is still a $20K+ car and holding.

      I’m unsure why Z32s, especially TTs, aren’t huge money yet. They’re gorgeous, quick, and perennial ’90s cars.

      • 0 avatar
        bumpy ii

        The Z32 was overshadowed by the MkIV Supra and the GT-R.

        • 0 avatar
          True_Blue

          Performance-wise, certainly. But that’s like stating there’s little value to a 383 ‘Cuda because there were Hemi GTXs.

          Perhaps they’ll get there. FD RX-7s have made the jump to collector status, while FC and FBs are $2500 automobiles.

      • 0 avatar
        afedaken

        They were also produced in higher numbers than their contemporaries. There are almost 4 Z32s out there for every A80 Supra.

        Which is not to say that they aren’t awesome vehicles, but they’re simply not as rare.

  • avatar
    PrincipalDan

    All original barn find 1991 Grand Wagoneer.

    1996 Chrysler LeBaron Town & Country Convertible – to be held up as an example of all American Kitsch.

  • avatar
    tylanner

    1999-2008 BMW Iron block 6’s (Z3 M roadster/coupe, Z4M, M3)

    The E30 M3 will never stop going up…a mint example is the car to have 20 years from now.

    2012/2013 BOSS 302 and 302s

    Honda S2000 CR is the most elegant club/tuner car ever produced.

    C6 will hold value as the final classic Corvette with the ZR1 and Z06 Carbon taking a Ford GT-esque trajectory…

    • 0 avatar
      spreadsheet monkey

      Agree an E30 M3 is a safe investment, but they are already very expensive. I don’t know what the prices are like in the US, but in the UK, they sell for £60k-£100k.

      http://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/bmw/e30-m3-86-92/bmw-e30-m3-sport-evolution–56k-miles/6164119

      • 0 avatar
        tylanner

        I’ll concede that the E30s are already high but I just don’t see that trend slowing down. That M3 is very unique.

        In other news, a Dakar Yellow M Roadster @ 13,000mi that I’d been stalking for 3 weeks just got sold yesterday after a $3k price drop…ouch…back to square one.

  • avatar
    JimZ

    “At that time, one will not only enjoy the extra money, but they’ll also have had a collector car in which to cruise for a decade.”

    you think these people actually buy these cars to *drive?* they’re going to be socked away in climate-controlled storage, drained of fluids, and won’t see sunlight until the next time they’re put on the auction block.

    like I said in a previous thread, if I had f***-you money, I’d go to Mecum or Barret-Jackson, buy some hilariously-overvalued car like a Boss 429 Mustang or “one of four” Hemi ‘Cuda convertible, then after checking it over with a few people, watch the horror on people’s faces as I *drive away in it.*

    TROLOLOLOLOLOL

    • 0 avatar
      PrincipalDan

      I’m with you.

      When a car is being designed, engineered, and then assembled there isn’t anybody in the process who is hoping someone will just enjoy it as sculpture.

      Drive it!

      • 0 avatar
        87 Morgan

        THIS!
        I drive mine often, to be fair it is not anything close to original at point so it matters little. I can replace **every** part of the car except for the VIN tag.

        My older brother is a purist and likes his old cars to be 100% stock as they came from the factory. I have begged him to remove the 361 CID and original torque flight and replace them with a 383 and later gen trans for driving use. When the car needs to be sold or whatever put the #’s matching stuff back in. No one can tell the difference between a 361 & 383 unless you tear them apart, so car show judges will never be able to tell. But, he is a wealthy SOB and could care less if he shoots a rod through the original block. He doesn’t plan on selling the car ever, and once he is gone, he doesn’t care what the value is…

    • 0 avatar
      OldManPants

      Y U no like great sculpture?

    • 0 avatar
      DenverMike

      “…watch the horror on people’s faces as I *drive away in it.*”

      Don’t forget, donuts in the parking lot! A smoking burnout, while smoking a damn cheap cigar too!!

      I’ve thought the same thing about Buick GNX’s, zero miles, lovingly kept covered in the garage, by lunatic old dudes. A basic GNX shrine next to the washer/dryer.

      Most aren’t for sale, (until the day after the man’s funeral) but every man has his *price*…

    • 0 avatar
      FreedMike

      I’m of two minds on this approach.

      Pro – It was meant to be driven. Drive it. Absolutely.

      Con – Imagine taking your six-figure baby out for a Sunday drive…and getting rear-ended by some uninsured moron in a Daewoo Leganza who was too busy vaping to figure out you were stopped. If you have the money to buy one of these, you can insure it out the wazoo…but will insurance REALLY pay out what it’s worth?

      I see why people don’t don’t take their classics out, to be frank. I think if I had the bucks to buy something like a numbers-matching Boss 302 Mustang or Hemi ‘Cuda, I’d buy two, keep the original one in storage, and “upgrade” a non-original one to drive around.

      • 0 avatar
        DenverMike

        This is true, but how many times have you been rear ended? I’ve gone a million+ miles and zero. You should be able to afford the loss, or yeah don’t drive it.

        • 0 avatar
          FreedMike

          Well, yeah, I’ve been rear-ended. Big difference, though, being bear rear-ended in my VW and a rare classic car that could fetch six figures, you know?

      • 0 avatar
        afedaken

        This is why you insure with an “Agreed Value” or “Stated Value” policy for a classic, and not the usual “Actual Cash Value” policy that most people have.

  • avatar
    jack4x

    Analog cars and manual transmissions especially. Basically a trickle down effect from Ferrari and air cooled Porsche price deltas between manual and automatic equipped cars. Maybe not in the long long term, since kids growing up now are far less likely to experience/appreciate that type of car, but for many of us, anything that lets us push back against the GTR/Tesla/self-driving onslaught will be both appreciated and much harder to find. Examples:

    Vipers
    Z06, especially C5-C6
    Aston Martins with MT
    E46 M3
    GT350/GT500/Terminators
    Hot hatches like Focus RS, Golf R etc.

    I also think low mile, unabused Raptors will be valuable someday since I don’t see that type of vehicle being built much longer if EPA standards don’t change.

  • avatar
    gkhize

    WS6 Trans Am
    Terminator
    Raptor

    I would speculate that 60s muscle car values have peaked and will continue a steady decline. My 85-year-old dad collects and restores old farm tractors. I’ve attended some sales with him recently, and the prices of fully restored tractors are dropping, primarily because the guys with an emotional attachment to those tractors and who farmed with one are disappearing. The subsequent generations don’t have that attachment and aren’t interested in paying a premium for them. Eventually the same will happen to those 60s muscle cars as the pool of people willing to pay the big $$ slowly shrinks.

    • 0 avatar
      Arthur Dailey

      gkhize: Agree 100% and have been preaching this for a number of years. Nostalgia is dependent on your memories. Generally it focuses on ‘the best times of your life’ which normally equates to your first sexual experiences.

      And most can only invest in these memories when they have large amounts of disposable income, meaning starting in the 50’s.

      Once they get to old to be able to maintain or use these, they are sold. But their generation is no longer collecting, so the prices drop.

      Saw this with the pricing of pre WWII stuff.

      Sure the really top end works of art like Bugattis and Duesenbergs will hold their values but not the run of the mill stuff that people bought because their father or grandfather had one or because it was their first car.

      Instead watch the prices of ‘rice rockets’ and cars featured on Grand Theft and the Too Fast franchise to skyrocket.

      • 0 avatar
        indi500fan

        I remember when I was a youngster in the 50s and early 60s THE big restoration car for the “common man” was the Model A Ford. So the popularity cycle definitely follows a time line.

  • avatar
    spreadsheet monkey

    I would aim to appeal to people currently in their thirties who might have coveted these cars in the last decade, and will have more money in their pockets in 10-20 years time which can be spent on recapturing their youth.

    Suggestions:

    * Acura NSX (still available in the UK for £25-30k, are they still cheap in the US?)
    * BMW M-anything (E90/E92 M3 was the last non-turbo model, again available for £20k on this side of the Atlantic)
    * Audi S6 or R8 with the V10 (Lamborghini connection FTW)
    * Mercedes CLS (early cars still in the ghetto phase at the moment, but this will pass)
    * Porsche 968 (values shooting up here in the UK, was £10k for a good one a few years ago, now closer to £20k)

    • 0 avatar
      OldManPants

      “people currently in their thirties who… will have more money in their pockets in 10-20 years time”

      Ahh… Chinese and Indians; now I get it. I was at first perplexed.

  • avatar
    Drzhivago138

    Subaru XTs and SVXs, though probably only for a niche audience.

  • avatar
    Cactuar

    Iconic 90’s cars:

    ORECA Dodge Viper GTS-R
    R32 Skyline GTR
    Warsteiner E30 BMW M3
    Mitsubishi Evo IV and V
    Martini Lancia Delta Integrale
    E46 BMW M3 GTR street version (very rare)

  • avatar
    DenverMike

    Simple. Those ’97 Lariat F-350 dually 4X4 crew cabs, tu-tone Forest Green over white, tan cloth interior, Roll-A-Long edition, gas 460, garage kept, zero miles.

  • avatar
    2drsedanman

    If Bring a Trailer is any indication, looks like low mileage NA Miatas (1990-1997) are starting to gain in value. I’m not sure the ceiling is going to be crazy high regardless. Although, who would have thought a VW van would bring crazy money?

    Also, second generation Camaro/Firebirds are definitely on the rise as well as pickups, especially older Chevy/GMC.

  • avatar
    DenverMike

    I’ve been eyeing 7-Up LX’s since day one, and watched their value go down to basically nothing. Same with all the LX special editions. Most are driven into the ground.

    They were never official “7-Up Mustangs”, the sweepstakes “giveaway” was cancelled, but the Mustangs were already built as ordered. Just green with white leather interior, white top, LX 5.0 convertibles.

    I’ve been hording, more pedestrian Fox 5.0 LX/GTs, only since they were so much fun. And lightweight. And can be had for about nothing now.

    A resto-mod (or low miles example) with a current 430 HP Coyote, Tremec trans, would be insane. 3.73 gears of course.

    But they built too many for them to be worth a million. But they’re not Corvettes, and not to many horded them, bubble wrapped since new. Some pushing $100,000 is no surprise.

  • avatar
    bumpy ii

    Side bet: clean Cummins 12v Dodge trucks. They’re already hard to find in decent condition, let alone showroom fresh and unmodified.

    • 0 avatar
      indi500fan

      I’m sure that’s true. They were made to work, and work they have.

    • 0 avatar
      DenverMike

      Exact right thinking. While the “smart bet” was the Corvette, those hording “everyday” blue collar Hemi ‘Cudas, late ’60s, had to be thought of as fools.

      Heavy duty pickups, especially duallys, uptil recently, were strictly bought to beat on daily, if not nightly too.

  • avatar
    05lgt

    I agree the A80 Supra (turbo natch), low mileage original (if one exists) will be a bank breaker in 5 – 10 years. Any special edition NSX or S2000. “pace car” or similar marketing whoop of 90’s Mustang, Corvette, F-body. Early 60’s Cadillac. Any of these with a VIN with several 8’s in a row is worth mega more Yuan eventually.

  • avatar
    spreadsheet monkey

    Jack B recently wrote an article on his own website about what makes a collectible:

    http://jackbaruth.com/?p=5663

    “Items that are designed to be collectible from the moment they are made tend to be stored away in perfect condition. And that’s how they remain. People forget about them. They lose emotional value. They aren’t associated with any exciting memories or personal experiences. After a while, they’re just junk. ”

    It’s an important point – a large percentage of Chargers and Cudas made in the 60s and 70s were wrecked or simply used up. They weren’t intended as collectibles when they were new, and they were treated accordingly.

    The “hero cars” of the 1990s probably won’t experience the same attrition rate, which will impact the supply side of the supply/demand balance.

    • 0 avatar
      stingray65

      Lots of people think that the really hot cars of the 1950s to early 1970s were common when they were new, but there were a lot more slant-six and 318 2 barrel Cudas sold than those with the 426 Hemi or 440 Six-Pack. The high output engines with solid lifters and multiple carbs were difficult to keep in tune, guzzled fuel, expensive to buy and insure, and were generally very tired by 30-40,000 miles. The few that were sold were often abused, driven year-round in snow and salt, and sent to the crusher after the 4th high school kid owner wrapped the rusty smoking former supercar around a light pole. In comparison, the high output versions of many more recent cars are relatively popular when new because people are generally wealthier and the cars are less of a pain in the ass to own and drive. The newer enthusiast cars also don’t rust (as much) and can often survive relatively intact into old age, so the survival rate is also much higher. Thus I would be very surprised if any recent “everyday” cars such as Fox Mustangs or Integras or ZO6 Corvettes ever reach the heights achieved by Tri-Five BelAirs, Fuelie/Big Block Vettes, or Big Block Mopars of the 1950s and 60s.

  • avatar
    Compaq Deskpro

    Ford Excursion, Hummer H2, second gen Escalade. The pinnacle of the early 2000’s SUV craze. As with Mustangs and Integras, all original models will be outnumbered by trucks with god awful lift kits, rims, and chrome, contributing to rarity.

    Maybe not valuable, but there will be an enthusiast community for the Nissan and Scion cubes. Prius will become like the VW Beetle, slow, utilitarian, and effortlessly charming.

  • avatar
    V16

    The first generation Olds Aurora.
    Still looks modern 17 years later.

  • avatar
    indi500fan

    I’d think Honda S2000s and Toyota MR2s in original condition might be good bets. Not ginormous appreciation but fun to drive and much less seen than Miatas.

  • avatar
    FreedMike

    Early ’90s ZR1 Corvette
    The final run of early-aughts Firebirds
    Impala SS (the RWD “whale” version)

  • avatar
    jfbar167

    Hemmings seem to have a lot of chatter about the Pontiac Aztec as being a future collectible (NO thanks to a little show on a few years back).

  • avatar
    scott25

    Definitely agree with some of these. 2nd-gen Prius, R32 and R34 Skylines (R33 less so), NA Miata, 2nd-gen Eclipse, first two gens of MR2s, any CRX, most late 80s and early to mid 90s Hondas, any of the last naturally aspirated BMW M cars and AMGs, especially the E39 M5. Also think the 2nd gen Escalade and maybe the H2 are good calls based on nostalgia. TJ Wranglers I can see going up in value as the last sort of faithful Jeep. Supra, NSX and S2000 are locks. First gen xB and early Honda Elements are dark horses.

    For some reason I don’t ever see Vipers or C6 Corvettes being too valuable (other than the ACRs and ZR1).

    • 0 avatar
      Land Ark

      One day we’ll all lament about how we could have bought an R34 GTR for measly $100k and stashed it away for a few years. One with low miles in Bayside Blue and no mods, that’ll be the future fuelie Vette.

      I’m hoping you’re right about the R33, since that’s on my shopping list as soon as it becomes available.

  • avatar
    dal20402

    People in the future will want the same thing they wanted when they were young.

    And what do people want now? Trucks. The same young guys who wanted muscle cars in the early ’70s and JDM sports cars in the ’90s now want Raptors.

    So if I had to pick just one car to bet a bunch of money on and keep in climate-controlled storage, it would be one of the first 6.2L Raptors.

  • avatar
    Land Ark

    The ’94-’96 Impalas, ’04-’06 GTO, and last year F-body Camaro/Firebirds suffered the same fate. People bought them and immediately mothballed them with the plastic still on the seats. That means the market gets flooded with no mile examples and ensures they’ll never be worth anything until the value gets low enough that owners unload them and people start driving them.
    A prime example was the ’82 Collectors Edition Corvette. It’s only now getting into a reasonably collectible territory.

    When I bought my GTO in 2012 it was easier to find a ridiculously low mile example than it was one with even slightly reasonable miles for its age. Even today, you could get a car like mine for only a little more than I paid.
    The same thing might be happening with the SS as we speak.

    I have been wrong thus far about the Starion and Conquest. I was sure they would be the next big thing, but I guess not being featured in Gran Turismo 2 is holding back their value.

    Cars to watch:
    99-00 Civic Si
    05-06 RSX Type S
    99-00 Eclipse GSX
    03-05 STI
    any stock manual 240sx

    Get them today before it’s too late:
    FD RX7
    WS6 anything
    1992 Z28

  • avatar
    Fred

    That LX fastback is missing the center piece on the wheels. There are a couple of $50,000 Lotus Elans that are at the top the market. That’s a real bargain compared to those garage find 356 I’ve seen.

    ps OK I now read the ad copy so I guess the value is it doesn’t have the hub caps.

    • 0 avatar
      DenverMike

      Yep, caps were slapped on by the PDI guy. Except the front “dealer installed” licence-plate “bracket” shouldn’t be on the car either. Bummer since holes get punched into the bumper cover, then it’s riveted on, or simply screwed in place.

  • avatar
    Corey Lewis

    I know!

    Last model Thunderbird (Lincoln LS)
    Plymouth Prowler
    Chevy SSR
    Chevy SS with manual
    Ford Lightning trucks
    3000GT convertibles

  • avatar
    cognoscenti

    I’ve just put my money where my mouth is, and bought an LCI E90 M3 with a 6-speed manual transmission and Competition Package. In Red. They only imported ~35 total vehicles in this spec to the US, from 2009-2011. It’s the last of the naturally-aspirated cars, the last of the BMWs with hydraulic steering, last of the BMWs that don’t pipe fake engine sounds into the cabin. All I have to do is enjoy it and manage not to get hit by anyone!

  • avatar
    George B

    Walk around your local Coffee and Cars and see what section has hot young women. The young guys walking around with them are the future car collectors a generation from now. Where I live they like Ferraris and sport bikes. Next, look at what section has women in their 30s and 40s. That’s the BMW and Mercedes section around here. I’d guess the guys with them will be looking for a nice BMW M3 or AMG Mercedes a decade or two from now. In contrast, I don’t see any future collectors looking at Corvettes.

  • avatar

    1962-1972 Lotus Elan. They only made about 14,000. There were five times as many E Type Jaguars made and average E Types run into six figures these days. Jay Leno, Gordon Murray, and Harry Metcalf all say that the Elan is their favorite sports car.

    A really nice Elan runs about $45K these days so there’s some upside potential.

  • avatar
    Jimmy7

    H2 Hummers. Seeing fewer on the streets these days; I suspect they’re going overseas. If the vehicle was a popular toy, somebody is going to want a full-size when they grow up.

  • avatar
    Erikstrawn

    We tend to overlook what is going to be valuable because we look at some cars and think, “Who wants that old crap?” The trick is to find stuff that’s “old crap” now, but will be desirable in the future.

    1st and 2nd gen RX-7s have been rock-bottom priced for a long time. I see them going up, but I’ve been imagining that for a long time. Anybody need to buy some 12A parts?

    Chrysler 300s/Dodge Magnums with V8 power. Right now they look outdated and they have a bad reputation for quality, but remember how we felt about Mopar muscle in the early ’80s? Nobody wanted a Duster back then.

    Lotus Elise/Exige. They’ve never been what I consider cheap, but on track they hold their own against most anything being produced now, and a decent Elise can be had for under $25k.

    Parts-wise I think small-block Chevy motors are where flathead Ford motors were in the ’60s. Everybody’s throwing them away and in a decade or so the resto crowd will be paying decent money for them.

    • 0 avatar
      tylanner

      I was surprised to see a one-owner, low mile 12A for $5500 here in NJ.

      It is interesting how the classic Datsuns are ballooning while the 12As are in the trash…you have to concede that a 79 Rx-7 is homely looking but is it that bad?

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