Elon Musk Clarifies Tesla Model 3 Won't Outperform Model S

You're not understanding what Musk said. He said that they were going to use the production tooling to build the evaluation cars rather than use beta tooling. Nothing about skipping beta testing.

@mcs Which part of "believes the Model 3 will be much less glitchy at launch" is unclear. He admits S and X were glitchy and believes that 3 won't be. I don't.

@Driver123 You need to reread what mcs said. You're not understanding what Musk means by skipping the beta phase. There was another article on TTAC about that this week, I suggest you read it.

@orenwolf yes we do understand what Musk is saying. There's a very good reason *every other automaker* has an initial "slow build" prototype phase, and it's not because they like spending millions of dollars and months of time making cars they ultimately have to scrap. It's because if you go straight to production tooling to build your prototypes and you run into no-build/stop ship problems which require changes to that production tooling, you're shut down for a long time. I guess I just don't understand why people who haven't once set foot inside an automotive assembly plant believe they know what they're talking about just because they can parrot Elon Musk's every word.

@orenwolf "..just because they can parrot Elon Musk’s every word." Not a lot of Evangelicals in your normal milieu?

@jimz: For the record, I've spent a lot of time in several auto assembly plants including taking one from bare concrete floors to full production on a new car. For some plants, I think I still remember every bit of the line. I worked on Fremont as well, but it's been a long time since I was in there. I've actually been through the process of bringing a new assembly plant on-line with a new car - hands on experience. I'm not just parroting Musk's words.

@jimz: I also used to spend a lot of time observing every station on the line. The body shop was always my favorite. Sparks flying everywhere and that glorious smell of burnt metal. I do know what can go wrong on a new production line and have actual experience dealing with it. I also come from an automotive engineering family with engineers on both the design and the manufacturing side. I was brought up on this stuff. Admittedly, it's not current like tresmonos (and I haven't been in an auto plant in a while), but I do have some experience in auto plant design and implementation.

@orenwolf The problem is that it can't be anywhere near as glitchy as the other Tesla rollouts. There is competition now and say what you will about GM, they have demonstrated they can launch a high volume car that is reliable on day one and meet the launch date. They haven't always done it, but Tesla has never done it.

Sort of. The anti-EV people would prefer to eliminate it entirely, but making it available to the first 200k vehicles sounds like a reasonable compromise. And note that it is a credit, not a pay-out. You need to owe $7500 or more in taxes to qualify, but some can reduce their tax bill with mortgage interest, loss on stocks, etc., in which case they won't see the full $7500 credit. So it depends on your situation.

Here's a pretty comprehensive look at when the 200,000 limit may be reached. https://cleantechnica.com/2017/01/20/predicting-us-federal-ev-tax-credit-will-expire-tesla-buyers/

@WheelMcCoy Seems to me the only true anti-EV people are the oil companies. Everyone else against handing out subsidies to people buying expensive EV's isn't so much anti-EV as they are anti-government waste. Tesla's done a great job at marketing themselves as a vanity brand with green cred that a lot of people are happy to pay for. No need for subsidies.

I agree with you on stated expectations for Model 3 vs Model S, but this is a "tech" company rather than a "car" company so some (many?) of the customers expect each new model to be a leap forward. And yes it's not rational to expect a 50% price cut and more content / range / performance.

I'm good with it. I just see storm clouds from a business perspective as other makers are now launching cars that are competitive with Teslas in their segment. That is the problem...they aren't all that ingenious when you get to the bottom of it. Electric motors with a usable range, subpar interior materials for their price point, and a tech heavy interior. What is there that Hyundai couldn't deliver. Even GM at their worst has very deep pockets with respect to what they can spend developing these models compared to Tesla. The S is pushing 6 years old with only a minor body refresh. I haven't seen anything about a new one on the horizon. As a purveyor of cool tech stuff I like them. As a mass producer of automobiles that has to compete with some of the largest companies in the world that have very deep pockets, massive manufacturing capability and 100+ years of expertise building cars and have now decided to enter at least one segment Tesla desperately needs to be successful in I am not so convinced.

@indi500fan And again, you said "bring them to the masses"? How. The bolt is cheaper, by all accounts has the same range, and will be on the market prior to when Tesla has stated the 3 will go on sale and Tesla has been known to be optimistic on launch timetables. I just see problems here that Tesla has yet to face as a company.

"It’s always depressing to wade into a Tesla post as there are so many haters in them." If you're going to hate "haters" that only makes you a "hater" too. On the other hand, I happen to hate people that hate "haters", which makes me a hater by extension!

@Art Vandelay Actually, the Model 3 will start at a lower price than the Bolt (base prices are about $2500 apart), though that will be negated from a practical standpoint as the $7500 tax credit is phased out next year. Though as others have mentioned there will be a lot more (expensive) option boxes to tick so most will probably be more costly. You also have to look at the whole picture. I would not even be looking at a BEV if it wasn't for Tesla's Supercharger network. 3rd party charging (particularly of the DC fast charge variety) is laughably sparse here in flyover country. As good as the competition is (e.g. Bolt, Leaf 2.0, etc.) there is currently no practical way to drive them long distances.

@Giskard I thought the credit was only being phased out for Tesla since they will have produced enough electrics. Also if you routinely drive those long distances a PHEV makes way more sense. Honestly I'd get the Volt. And with respect to the charging, I see this as a potential liability in the long term. Eventually, assuming electrics the off there will be a standard. It will be set by the government. The same government where the traditional automakers have lobbyists and were it to happen soon, the ear of the President. Think of it. Trump rolls out Infrastructure spending bill he has promised. To avoid the healthcare debacle, he adds some things democrats actually support. One of those things...funding for a national charging network. Tesla would have to license the standard or be left out. I doubt the other automakers would want to pay for licensing so figure on a more open standard that will be backed by the GM's and Toyotas of the world. Remember the best idea doesn't always win. Look at Tesla's namesake. He clearly had the best means to generate and transport electricity with AC vs Edison's DC. History has borne that out. But even in victory, it was Edison's company that actually came out on top (minus Edison by then). Why? J.P. Morgan's money, lawyers, and connections. This is where Tesla loses out and why I love their products, but not their future.

@Giskard Big Al, You are correct in that the federal tax credit will be phased out by manufacturer. That's why I said the Model 3 will have a cheaper starting MSRP than the Bolt, but that advantage will be eroded as the credit is phased out for Tesla (likely starting Q1 or Q3 next year) well ahead of Chevrolet. They still won't be that far apart if Tesla sticks to their $35K starting price. The vast majority of my trips are short with probably 20 that are 150-250 round trip and another 10 or so that are 300 miles one way every year. My first gen i3 Rex handles this fairly well and is likely more efficient over all as I can run on battery power the majority of the time without lugging around a large engine. It is also significantly more fun to drive than a Volt. I have nothing against the Volt, really, just not my cup of tea. As far as charging is concerned there already is an open standard in place in the form of J1772 connectors for Level 1 and 2 charging and the related CCS connector for Level 3 charging (a Supercharger is Level 3). Neither of these is endorsed by Tesla, but they already provide an adapter from their proprietary connector to the J1772 and will probably follow suit shortly once CCS chargers are more common. Tesla offered up their connector for free as the standard, but predictably the other manufacturers decided on a different one (this was all hammered out years ago, by the way). My point was that Tesla did not wait for the government or other private companies to build out a viable long distance charging network because they realized they could not sell in the numbers they wanted to without it. Their Supercharger network is very far ahead of any of the other networks, which are gaining steam as well. I hope you are correct and President Trump does slide funding into his infrastructure plan to build out a more comprehensive charging network. Tesla will only benefit from this, though their competitors will benefit even more, and us consumers will benefit the most as we'll have more choices. Particularly for someone like me that does not live in or near a major population center.

@Art Vandelay I think Teslas not being super ingenious (from a hardware standpoint) is pretty true, but it's true importance is that it takes a lot of tech that's been around a while and puts it all together into a car that is generally acceptable to the mainstream, in high numbers. Competition in the BEV space probably ends up benefitting everyone, since more resources will go into establishing supply lines, battery manufacturing and research.

@Art Vandelay "they aren’t all that ingenious when you get to the bottom of it. " I agree with @hgrunt. Also, big automakers come with baggage, and need to retool their factories. They will try to optimize and share and reuse components to cut costs, and what you get is the unimpressive Honda Clarity: http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2017/02/not-bottom-honda-clarity-evs-range-wont-wow-anyone/ Lest we forget, Microsoft, with deep pockets, planned to kill Apple's iPod with the Zune. I'm not saying Tesla's lead will endure forever, but dethroning them won't be easy.

@hgrunt "I think Teslas not being super ingenious (from a hardware standpoint) " What about the smart fuse and the iconel main pack contactor? They have come up with some good innovations.