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While You Were Sleeping: January 23rd, 2015
by
Derek Kreindler
(IC: employee)
Published: January 23rd, 2015
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There won’t be 1 million EVs on the road this year like President Obama wanted. Not even close.
Derek Kreindler
More by Derek Kreindler
Published January 23rd, 2015 11:08 AM
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Even the most optimistic EV fans never believed the million-car target was achievable in 2015, so this shouldn't be news to anyone. The article repeats the meme that EV sales are suffering due to cheap gas, but this is false: "http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" While I am reluctant to call every plug-in an EV, here are the sales numbers for all plug-ins (US sales): 2011: 17,080 2012: 52,607 (up 308%) 2013: 97,507 (up 85%) 2014: 119,710 (up 23%)
Why electric cars remain a niche. 1) concerns about battery life/replacement cost - which is seen by the generally poor resale values on EVs. 2) short range that gets shorter with age - start with 80 miles and after 5 years you are down to 50-60, lose 20+% range in cold weather or using A/C in warm weather, 3) long refueling time - even 15 minutes is a long time to wait when a regular car can get 300 miles of fuel in 5 minutes. 4) high purchase price unless heavily subsidized - wealthy EV buyers get money from the government while schools, programs for the poor, etc. get cut, and government deficits are exploding. 5) lack of EV models in the size and type preferred by most buyers - i.e. CUVS, pickups, mid-large sedans - which are not produced because they would require huge Tesla sized batteries and Tesla sized prices. Sure the government can mandate the car makers to produce them, but they cannot be profitable unless they become popular with the general public. I am sure the Obama is frustrated by the fact that the laws of physics and chemistry (which govern battery development)are so slow to respond to his EV mandates.
"There won’t be 1 million EVs on the road this year like President Obama wanted. Not even close." This just won't do. We need a federal law slowing down gasoline pumps so it takes an hour to fill your ICE car. That an a 50% surcharge on any new ICE vehicle should really get the EV marketing going.
Obama may prove to be off....by just one year or two. We could have 1 million EVs total in 2016. According to the article there are 280,000 EVs sold/leased. Of those 120,000 were sold/leased in 2014. That's HUGE - it means about half the EVs ever sold occurred in 2014. If the base keeps on doubling at that rate we'll have 500,000 or thereabout EVs sold by the end 2015. And then the much ballyhooed 1 million EVs by the end of 2016. My only car is a Nissan LEAF, and it has not been as restrictive as you would think. Also I rent - my landlord installed three EVs chargers for EV tenets to use (you know, promote as "Eco-Friendly" in marketing). He does not charge for the chargers. I picked the place in large part because of the chargers. I think there has been outstanding progress. For the first year I was the only one using it but a couple of other tenets caught on that it is a good deal. Now there are about 6 of us who routinely use them.