World's Largest Automaker: TTAC Up-Revises GM's Year-End Estimate By 300,000 Units

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt
world s largest automaker ttac up revises gm s year end estimate by 300 000 units

Yesterday, we did one of our regular checks on the World’s Largest Automakers. Today, finally some good news for the GM camp: TTAC is up-revising its year-end projection for GM by some 300,000 units. Here is why:

Half-Year Production and Full Year Forecast6M ’126M ’11YoYProj ’12Toyota5,247,7773,375,69255.5%10,496,000GM4,816,0004,727,0001.9%9,632,000Volkswagen4,450,0004,090,0008.8%8,900,0006 month data based on company quarterly reportsToyota, GM: Production. VW: Deliveries. Forecast by TTAC

Yesterday, we used 4.67 million for the half year as a base, to arrive at 9.34 million by the end of the year. Today, we use 4.81 million , to arrive at 9.63 million when the ball drops. Usually we use official data for these projections. We used the 4.67 millionafter they were communicated by GM ahead of its quarterly report, which we have now. Lets use what we should have used.

The world’s largest automakers are (like it or not, we don’t make the rules) decided by production, not by sales. The 4.67 million communicated by GM spokesman Jim Cain is a sales number. According to the Q2 report, GM and its joint ventures produced 4.816 million units worldwide in the first six months of 2012. So far the good news.

The bad news is that bottom line worldwide production grew only 1.9 percent. Some may make snarky comments that between production and sales some 146,000 cars are sitting around unsold, but let’s not get hung up on details.

It should be noted that Toyota also differentiates between production and sales, whereas Volkswagen only reports what they call “deliveries.” We use VW’s deliveries as production, because that’s what they usually report to OICA.

Also, there are “sales” and “sales” at GM. As the Q2 report says:

“GMNA vehicle sales primarily represent sales to the ultimate customer. GME, GMIO and GMSA vehicle sales primarily represent estimated sales to the ultimate customer. In countries where end customer data is not readily available other data sources, such as wholesale volumes, are used to estimate vehicle sales.”


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  • Ott Ott on Aug 02, 2012

    This comment has nothing to do with this post. What the hell is up with the annoying ads popping up and trying to sell me an AirWick??? Not Cool!!!! Even as I type this comment the damn thing is starting up trying to sell me an AirWick yet AGAIN, AFTER I just clicked on the stupid thing to be quiet! Can TTAC moderate the ads that show up on their site as well, or just our comments? Anyway, thanks for letting me vent. K I'm good now.

  • Tikki50 Tikki50 on Aug 03, 2012

    Im more than a little concerned about these "deals" because with said deals, they essentially have broken the business model. Thus not metting expectations on profit to volume. Which then just reinforces the numbers we all just seen. the Big losses are hidden in more ways that thought. And GM will tarnish any model possible for the sake of a sale including any possible residule left. Just drop the price of the friggin car and call it done, geez. Otherwise your numbers are going to be across the board month over month. Some sanity is needed here.

  • JamesGarfield What charging network does the Polestar use?
  • JamesGarfield Re: Getting away from union plantsAbout a dozen years or so ago, Caterpillar built a huge new engine plant, just down the road here in Seguin TX. Story has it, Caterpillar came to Seguin City council in advance, and told them their plans. Then they asked for no advanced publicity from Seguin, until announcement day. This new plant was gonna be a non-union replacement for a couple of union plants in IL and SC, and Cat didn't want to stir up union problems until the plan was set. They told Seguin, If you about blab this in advance, we'll walk. Well, Seguin kept quiet as instructed, and the plan went through, with all the usual expected tax abatements given.Plant construction began, but the Caterpillar name was conspicuously absent from anywhere on the site. Instead, the plant was described as being a collective of various contractors and suppliers for Caterpillar. Which in fact, it was. Then comes the day, with the big new plant fully operationa!, that Caterpillar comes in and announces, Hey, Yeah it's our plant, and the Caterpillar name boldly goes up on the front. All you contractor folks, welcome aboard, you're now Caterpillar employees. Then, Cat turns and announces they are closing those two union plants immediately, and will be transporting all the heavy manufacturing equipment to Seguin. None of the union workers, just the equipment. And today, the Caterpillar plant sits out there, humming away happily, making engines for the industry and good paying jobs for us. I'd call that a winner.
  • Stuki Moi What Subaru taketh away in costs, dealers will no doubt add right back in adjustments.... Fat chance Subaru will offer a sufficient supply of them.
  • Dartdude Lorenzo, the reason for low manual transmission here is that most dealers won't stock them. I wanted a 2012 Kia Koup with manual tranny it was available, but no dealers ordered any from the factory hence there was none available. Go on any car manufacture's web site and price and build and build your model and you would be lucky if the model existed and was available.
  • The Oracle Good news is that based on the model years many of these have already been junked or experienced terminal engine failure.