Kelley Predicts 900,000 Cars For January, 13.3 Million For the Year – Edmunds Thinks Kelley Is Wrong
We must be going into the last week of the month: The sales forecasts are beginning to arrive. In January, some 900,000 cars should change hands, 10 percent more than January 2011, but a whopping 30 percent below December. GM will be the only major automaker with a minus, both before the growth number and the market share.
This is the prediction of Kelley Blue Book. Kelley expects 2012 to bring slight, but not earthshaking gains. Kelley thinks the U.S. will be a 13.3 million unit market this year. Alec Gutierrez, senior market analyst at Kelley says:
“Our analysts have produced a regression model that explores unemployment, housing, consumer confidence and seasonal patterns to assist with our sales forecast for the year. Given current market conditions and our expectations for 2012, we believe sales will continue to improve at a conservative pace in 2012.”
For January, this is what Kelley thinks automakers will report (or something close to it … :)
| Sales Volume | Market Share | |||||
| Manufacturer | Jan-12 | Jan | YOY % | Jan-12 | Jan-11 | YOY% |
| 2011 | ||||||
| General Motors | 169,200 | 178,887 | -5.40% | 18.80% | 21.80% | -3.00% |
| Ford Motor Company | 144,900 | 126,981 | 14.10% | 16.10% | 15.50% | 0.60% |
| Toyota Motor Corp. | 121,500 | 115,856 | 4.90% | 13.50% | 14.10% | -0.60% |
| Chrysler Group | 93,600 | 70,993 | 31.80% | 10.40% | 8.70% | 1.70% |
| American Honda Motor Co. | 81,000 | 76,268 | 6.20% | 9.00% | 9.30% | -0.30% |
| Hyundai-Kia | 80,100 | 65,002 | 23.20% | 8.90% | 7.90% | 1.00% |
| Nissan North America | 79,200 | 71,847 | 10.20% | 8.80% | 8.80% | 0.00% |
| Total: | 900,000 | 819,394 | 9.80% | – | – | – |
Edmunds currently expects a weaker January of around 795k, and a SAAR of 12.1m. Edmunds.com Vice Chairman Jeremy Anwyl says:
“January’s sales decline suggests that the ‘mini bubble’ of deferred sales from last summer is already deflating. Edmunds.com expected the market to start moving in this direction, but the news might come as a surprise to some in the industry who thought that the industry’s strong finish in 2011 would continue unabated into 2012.”
What sucks more: Nissan increases sales by 10% but market share stays the same, or Hyundai increases sales 23 freaking % but sees a paltry 1% market share increase.
What sucks the most: not understanding how percents work.
Why do they think Chrysler will increase sales 30% in January?
That’s been the surprising percentage sales increase Chrysler has been pulling off the last several months. Kelley is just extrapolating from past data. It sounds reasonable, until it’s not, which is the Edmunds criticism.
“Why do they think Chrysler will increase sales 30% in January?”
Fiat’s subdivision formerly known as ChryslerCorp has done remarkably well since it became a foreign-owned company. Sales are up and the hottest models are the Jeep Grand Cherokee, the 300 and the 200. Quality is up, warranty claims are down, and transaction prices are out the door. Good show!
It is not unlikely to see their sales increase by 30% this month. The intro of the new 300SRT8 and the 2012 JGC SRT8 both have grabbed the attention of men and are expected to do very well during 2012.
Most Americans are still working and paying their bills on time so the upcoming foreclosures won’t affect them. I have several friends who plan to trade their older Grand Cherokee for a new 2012 version, after looking over our new JGC. No sales pitches from me. They got to their decision on their own after just one drive in our JGC.
The optimistic forecast can also be attributed to politics and this being an election year. Most buyers have delayed their new car purchases for at least the three years of the current administration and it looks like Obama will be in the White House for four more years since none of the current GOP candidates has enough backing from the Independents to beat him. So there is no relief in sight for the next four years and that light at the end of the tunnel is a freight train coming our way. We’re stuck with this hopey-changey sh1t and trickle-up poverty.
And there is always the cachet that Chrysler, like Toyota, is a foreign-owned company providing jobs to Americans who make cars for Americans, in America. It’s a viable alternative to taxpayer-owned Government Motors. Yeah, if I were a betting man I would bet that Fiatsler will do quite well in 2012.
When you are starting from near zero, everything is a big gain….
@Mark MacInnis
“When you are starting from near zero, everything is a big gain….”
Forget percentages, look at the sheer numbers and you’ll see that it’s really good gain for them.
January prediction.
Chrysler.+22,607
Ford…..+17,919
Kia……+15,098
Nissan….+7,353
Toyota….+5,644
Honda…..+4,732
GM……..-9,687
Chrysler January
2009 – 62,157 -54.8%
2010 – 57,143 -8.1%
2011 – 70,118 +27.2%
2012 – 93,600 +31.80% PREDICTION
What bad news did I miss about GM? I thought the stable was pretty well full of wonderful new models. Are these missing sales being lost to Chrylser’s improved Italian interiors? If not that, what?
Seriously, I understand Chrysler’s jump is because when sales have been in the ditch getting back to ground level is a statistically big improvement. However knowing that ISN’T the answer doesn’t help me understand the reason for low GM and Honda sales while Ford and Chrysler are moving upward.
Can somebody explain for me? Bueller?
Best thing to do is to check them out for yourself. The Pentastar V6 is on par with the Honda 3.5, up to now the most advanced all-aluminum 24-valve DOHC V6 on the market.
Ride, handling, NVH, smoothness, fit&finish are all the best they have ever been in any Chrysler product since Fiat took them under their wing.
A couple of months back I bought a 2012 Jeep Grand Cherokee Overland Summit V6 4X4 for my wife to replace her 2008 Highlander which I now drive. I’m impressed with everything on this JGC. It is such a sea-change for the better from any and all previous Jeeps like the Wagoneer, Commander, and all other Cherokee models.
The only irritant is that the new JGC does not have an ammeter to indicate the status of the electrical system, and the gel-cell battery is mounted underneath the front passenger seat. It requires the removal of the front seat to get to the battery so I’m hoping we won’t have any electrical problems for the warranty period, after which we’ll trade it off for a new vehicle.
Chrysler products under Fiat have come a long way, baby! We were never Chrysler fans but the styling of the new JGC caught my wife’s eye and the rest is history.
Honda’s J V6 – SOHC, not DOHC – hasn’t been the benchmark for 10 years. The VCM cylinder deactivation mechanism used in all Honda badged vehicles except the Accord coupe replaces independent intake valve timing. In that configuration it’s the worst major brand V6 on the market.
The Pentastar is great for a conventional midsized six but its appeal is blunted by the massive vehicles they put it. 260 lb-ft in a 4,150 lb 300 is already pushing it. The Durango and GC come in over 5,000.
Before the economy went to crap there was going to be a 4.0 liter version. That would have been much better suited for the desireable end of Chrysler’s lineup.
Dan, Google “Acura V6 DOHC”. Honda owns the Acura brand.