The Truth About All The Cars Of China
Soon you’ll read all over Google that China has 217 million cars. Don’t believe it. It’s not true.
Motorvehicles China June 2011
Motor vehicles China 6/2011(Millions)Automobiles98.46Of those passenger (est)62.97Of those commercial (est)35.49Motorcycles102.00Other16.54Total motor vehicles217.00Automobiles per thousand pop73Passenger vehicles per thousand pop47(Blue: TTAC estimate. Source: Xinhua)
“The number of motor vehicles in China hit 217 million as of the end of June,” based on registration data issued by China’s Ministry of Public Security, as reported by state news agency Xinhua.
However, in China, anything that is propelled by an engine and needs a license plate counts as a “motor vehicle.” Motor cycles are about half of the 217 million total. 98 million of the motor vehicles on China’s roads are “automobiles”, leaving 16.54 million in the “other” category (tanks?). So it’s 98 million cars? Not exactly.
Automobile Production China
YearPassengerCommercialTotalPass.Comm.201013,897,0834,367,58418,264,66776.09%23.91%200910,383,8313,407,16313,790,99475.29%24.71%20086,737,7452,561,4359,299,18072.46%27.54%20076,381,1162,501,3408,882,45671.84%28.16%20065,233,1321,955,5767,188,70872.80%27.20%20053,078,1532,629,5355,707,68853.93%46.07%20042,480,2312,754,2655,234,49647.38%52.62%20032,018,8752,424,8114,443,68645.43%54.57%20021,101,6962,185,1083,286,80433.52%66.48%2001703,5211,630,9192,334,44030.14%69.86%2000604,6771,464,3922,069,06929.22%70.78%1999565,3661,264,5871,829,95330.90%69.10%1998507,1031,120,7261,627,82931.15%68.85%Tot53,692,52930,267,44183,959,97063.95%36.05%Source: OICA
The “automobiles” again are divided down into passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles. Currently, 76 percent of China’s production is passenger vehicles, 24 commercial. When I came to China first in 2004, the ratio was 47:53. Totaling up the available data since 1998 gives a ratio of 64:36. (In China, “production” and “sales” can be used interchangeably on the macro level. Imports and exports don’t have much impact.) Using the average passenger-to-commercial ratio produces an estimated 64 million passenger vehicles on China’s roads, that compete with 35 million commercial vehicles for space on China’s clogged roads.
There are 73 “automobiles” per thousand people in China. There are approximately 47 passenger vehicles per thousand in China. In the G7, that number is around 600, in the U.S.A., there are more than 800 automobiles per thousand people. China has many years of growth ahead. Private cars already account for more than 70 percent of the country’s total, says the ministry.
Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.
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I would want a pet water buffalo to play with, jump on its back and use as a dive board for leaping into the rice paddy then languidly floating upon a giant lily pad while watching fluffy white clouds float peacefully past and shout excitedly to Wally the water buffalo when I saw a cloud that looked akin to Mao. And Mao would be kitty's name; at least until Pa-san cut its little head off and hands it to Ma-san to cook fer' dinner.
Bertel, who is maintaining all these cars? I spent a month in Henan in 2005 and at that time a lot of the vehicles on the road were the blue 3-wheel trucks, or tractors. All the corporate bigwheels were upgrading from Cherokees to black Audi sedans. Our driver's China-made Jeep Cherokee was horribly rattly, and obviously poorly maintained as was every vehicle I had the opportunity to inspect closely. What has happened to those Audi sedans in the past 6 years? I don't think they would withstand a complete lack of maintenance as well at the trucks and Cherokees would.