April New Car Sales: The Last Hurrah?
Forecasts for April U.S. new vehicle sales differ widely amongst the industry soothsayers this month.
J.D. Power expects total light-vehicle sales for April to come in at 1,147,300 units, 13 percent higher than in April 2010.
Truecar thinks that new light vehicle sales in the U.S. (including fleet) will be 1,145,209 units in April, up 16.6 percent from April 2010.
Edmunds is the most bullish of the augurs, expecting April new car sales (including fleet sales) to be approximately 1,171,000 units, a 19.3 percent increase from April 2010.
Edmunds immediately rains on its parade: “As inventories rapidly deteriorate, April could be the last month that we’ll see strong sales numbers until late summer or early fall,” said Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “May and June are traditionally high-volume months, and with anticipated supply constraints — especially on the fuel-efficient vehicles that have been in higher demand with spiked gas prices — inventories will be exhausted further. The big unknown is how this market will adjust to supply restrictions, when demand has been the key problem for the past three years.”
Forecast by J.D.Power:
J.D. Power and Associates U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons
New-vehicle retail sales
(16% higher than April 2010)2
Total vehicle sales
(13% higher than April 2010)
11.1 million units
10.7 million units
9.3 million units
13.1 million units
13.1 million units
11.2 million units
Forecast by Truecar:TrueCar Unit Sales ForecastManufacturerApril 2011 Forecast% Change vs. March 2011% Change vs. April 2010 Chrysler 114,298-5.7%19.4% Ford 187,523-11.7%15.2% GM 195,404-5.4%6.7% Honda 124,933-6.5%9.9% Hyundai/Kia 107,8001.6%45.6% Nissan 97,162-19.8%52.4% Toyota 160,087-9.2%1.2%Industry1,145,209-8.1%16.6%
Forecast by Edmunds:Change from April 2010 (Adjusted for one more selling day)Change from April 2010 (Unadjusted for one more selling days)Change from March 2011 (Same number of selling days)Chrysler (Chrysler, Dodge, Fiat, Jeep)21.6%17.1%-4.4%Ford (Ford, Lincoln, Mercury)14.0%9.8%-10.2%GM (Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, Hummer, Pontiac, Saturn)19.6%15.2%6.3%Honda (Acura, Honda)14.1%9.8%-3.0%Nissan (Infiniti, Nissan)29.5%24.7%-31.8%Toyota (Lexus, Scion, Toyota)6.3%2.4%-5.0%Industry Total19.3%14.9%-6.0%
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