June Sales Gone Flat?

Edward Niedermeyer
by Edward Niedermeyer
june sales gone flat

If you’re hoping the US market is in the midst of an upswing, it’s time to start adjusting expectations. Ford’s Mark Fields says the market has “flat-lined” since Q3 of last year, telling BusinessWeek

The consumer is feeling a bit better, but not enough to go out and go back to the old ways of spending. It gives us pause because of the tight labor market and the overall situation in the credit markets

Edmunds has released its forecast for June, and though it shows sales up consistently from May 2009’s miserable numbers, there seems no question but that June’s sales will be lower than May’s. Edmunds sees an 11.2m unit SAAR for June, down from 11.6m last month. We’ll wait to see the actual June numbers before we officially end all hope of a strong recovery, but it’s starting to look more and more like 2009 was closer to “the new normal” than anyone wants to think.

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  • Dimwit Dimwit on Jun 25, 2010

    Oh noes! We have a dip!!!!! Run away, run away. Sigh. This is the usual June/July changeover mellowing that happens every year. This year seems more drastic because no factory has pumped up their inventories. Notice TTAC hasn't run one of those "180 day dealer inventory" stories in quite some time. Most of the lines are being changed right now and I wager that for the popular models there's customers out there, with cash in hand, not being able to buy what they want exactly. If you're willing to pony up to buy, I'm damn sure that you will want to get what you want, not just take what's on the lot.

  • Porschespeed Porschespeed on Jun 26, 2010

    10-12MM is the natural replacement rate for a pop the size of the US. Get used to it, it isn't going to go much higher for the next 10+ years. (And I'm being optimistic.)

    • Michael Neufeld Michael Neufeld on Jun 27, 2010

      Amen to that. Though I support Obama, he said something stupid when he brought this fact up: He said that car sales would come right back to pre-recession levels since we were scrapping more cars than we produced. The only problem is that people are learning to live without their second (or sometimes THIRD) car.

  • John Horner John Horner on Jun 26, 2010

    The US consumer is by and large becoming a much more rational beast than she was a few years ago. Long term this is a good thing, but the economic adjustment period is going to be tough.

    • See 1 previous
    • Michael Neufeld Michael Neufeld on Jun 27, 2010

      A terrific read by Harry S. Dent: "The Great Depression Ahead". This book speaks specifically about the Boomers making up for lost time in retirement savings, and severely reducing their consumption since their children have grown. There will be a new world order and maybe folks will be happier and less stressed enjoying less materialistic pursuits. But I will always love cars, though!

  • Obbop Obbop on Jun 26, 2010

    Of course, no blame can be placed upon corporate structures (peace be upon them) who increasingly hire "subcontractors" rather than employees so no benefits need to be paid and those "subcontractors" have to pay the full amount of federal and state taxes, etc. Also, the use of less-than-full-time employees to avoid paying various benefits. Other strategies in use to minimize employee costs to those hiring employees that also minimize employee income that in an economy that is regularly proclaimed dependent upon consumer spending for around 70 percent of the total economy well... Who will buy the goods firms offer for sale? The working-poor class IS growing. Beware when their anger grows, reaching a certain level and when they look around and see their numbers....