Ford: The Worst is Over

Robert Farago
by Robert Farago

Ford analyst George Pipas reckons the recession is over; the U.S. economy is on its way to recovery. New car sales will, uh, stay the same. “I think that we won’t fall backward from October. How much November might advance from the October level it is too early to say . . . The fourth quarter will be stronger from an auto sales standpoint than a pre-clunkers level.” Translation: the U.S. new car market is bumping along at the bottom. Lest we forget, Pipas’ “pre-clunkers level” promised land was already significantly down from pre-crash volumes. Anyway, Pipas admits that Ford 2010 sales gains will be “modest” thanks to . . . wait for it . . . the perception gap. “[Unemployment] is a drag on consumer psychology. The recession may be over and the recovery may have begun, but for many, many consumers it may not feel like it’s over even 12 months from now.” The Detroit News reports that Pipas also predicts $4 a gallon gas by next summer, cementing the consumer shift towards smaller vehicles. What’s more, “Consumers in the future will be more careful about living within their means.” And if not, even better.

Robert Farago
Robert Farago

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  • Tparkit Tparkit on Nov 14, 2009

    The only place the recession is over is in the breathless propaganda of the bought-and-paid-for economics profession and its political patrons. From the moribund domestic automakers to the fraudulent balance sheets of of the global financial industry, our vast, worthless debt and overcapacity have only begun to unwind. Unrealistically cheap money and government profligacy in all the industrialized nations are responsible for the illusion of recovery. (In Canada, for instance, the taxpayers are propping up a frothy real estate market by guaranteeing nearly every new mortgage.) It would be wrong to label the historic transition the world has entered as "wealth destruction", because the wealth never existed in the first place.

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    • Tparkit Tparkit on Nov 15, 2009

      CdnCarGuy, I think you have some reading to do. You might want to start here: The CHMC profits you cite are trivial in comparison to the dollar value of the risk exposure. Like AIG earning a profit, it will mean nothing if the Canadian housing market collapses.

  • Mike Kelley Mike Kelley on Nov 14, 2009

    I wonder how high gas prices will go when Israel bombs the hell out of Iran's nuclear facilities. If Iran causes big trouble in the Hormuz Strait, it will be real ugly, real fast.

  • Rday Rday on Nov 14, 2009

    I think american consumers are finally waking up to the fact that there are few guarantees in life unless you work for the feds. I also think it will be years before we turn this economy around. There is just way too much debt and too many overpriced assets out there that need to be written off. Look at japan if you want to see where this train wreck is headed.

  • Obbop Obbop on Nov 14, 2009 says SAVE!!!! Others demand we save for retirement. Consumers spending less and will continue to do so. Constant lambasting about those buying buying buying. Yet, I continue to read and hear that around 75 percent of the USA economy depends upon consumer spending. The constantly rising productivity graph runs alongside the rising income of the upper classes while the commoner's income line falls. For many the recession has been ongoing from 1973 on. Is the precipice ahead of us? Is an oligarchy awaiting? Many revere Warren Buffet lauding him with constant praise. Are the many brainwashed Americans just ignoring one of his beliefs? "There's class warfare, all right," Mr. (Warren) Buffett said, "but it's my class, the rich class, that's making war, and we're winning."