IEA Cuts 2008 Forecast for Oil Demand

iea cuts 2008 forecast for oil demand

The Globe and Mail reports that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has cut its 2008 forecast on global demand for oil. Don't worry, the IEA says demand will still grow. But not by the aforepredicted 1,233,000 barrels per day (BPD). The new figure: 1,030,000 BPD. The 230k BPD adjustment was attributed to softening demand for oil in the USA (still the world's largest consumer) and world-record oil prices. I wonder if those two factoids are connected… Anyway, the news comes as oil futures hit $126.40 per barrel on Monday. Hedging its [s]oil futures[/s] bets, the IEA notes that "sustained weakness in European consumption" and "reassessment of fuel subsidies in countries such as Indonesia may create more downside risks." If their predictions come to bear, it'll be a simple affirmation of market principles. That said, if oil prices go down, the consumer will be the last to see it.

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  • Thoots Thoots on May 14, 2008

    Hmmm, you know, something just hit me after I posted the last comment: OK. So, California reduced its gasoline usage 4.5% over one month, compared to a year previous. So, riddle me this, Batman: Why does California still have nearly the highest gasoline prices (and I presume they still do if you take taxes out of the equation) in the country? Or, to toss the whole "tax" issue out the window, why haven't the gasoline price increases slowed down in California as compared to elsewhere? Bottom line: There just isn't any "competition" in the oil industry, whatsoever. There's no such thing as "supply and demand" -- it's all rigged, and we are the victims. Pretty simple, isn't it?

  • Ppellico Ppellico on May 14, 2008

    Here is an email I sent to Robert Farago... I have always tried to explain to anyone willing to listen that the price of oil today is being lead by speculation. When the Goldman report came out last week, I again asked if it wasn't, in point of fact, being presented by some with a vested interest in the continuing price climb. Don't get me wrong. I LIKE the prices being high. We are seeing major advancements in technology we would not have seen for years down the road. Soon we will see advancements in both air and ground transportation. And soon I will get my diesels!!!

  • Stein X Leikanger Stein X Leikanger on May 14, 2008

    @lprocter 1982 M King Hubbert first stated his thoughts on Peak Oil in 1948, in a speech at the AAAS conference. He later restated his views, formally, in a speech to the American Petroleum Institute in 1956, and in a National Academy of Science Report in 1962. Throughout, he stated that in the early 1970s, US Peak Oil would happen. US oil production began declining below consumption (the definition of peak oil) in November 1970. Hubbert stated that Global Peak Oil would occur in the foreseeable future, and within the early decades of the 21st century -- that's where we are now.

  • Joeaverage Joeaverage on May 16, 2008

    I figure the oil industry is soaking us right now so they can get max profit until the EVs and other alternatives begin to hit the roads in massive numbers in a few years. I mean if you have a 50 mile range in your plug-in hybrid and you only need 30 miles of range, you are never going to need gasoline until you drive out of town - right? Once you get used to plugging in your EV like a cellphone every night, are you going to want to stand out in the weather wasting 5-10 mins of your time pumping stinky gasoline or diesel? Not if the EV meets your needs. Also those electric RAVs from the late 90s are all the proof any sane person should need that EVs work now (and back in the late 90s too). The secret is out and more people are taking notice that we are being played for suckers by the oil companies, oil speculators and the car companies. The average person will be served just fine by a vehicle like the RAV-EV today with that tech. Yeah, some of your gearheads will never be happy with an EV but most of the commuters will. Be sure to look at the 100K+ page. By the way Chevron owns the patent to the battery design in the RAV-EV. Their patent expires in 2015 last I heard. If the stuff doesn't hit the fan before then, it will in 2015. Chevron sued Panasonic and Toyota over the Rav-EV battery design and that is why there are not any more being sold. Whether or not Chevron will license the tech for a reasonable cost I don't know. So the old myth of the oil companies withholding technology from the world that would compete with oil is exactly true - in this case at least.