#russia

Over the daily Toyota runaway stories, it’s easy to forget the plight of GM and its children abroad. If you think that’s the idea, then you are a miserable conspiracy theorist, and you should stand in the corner. With that in mind, let’s check in with GM and its worldwide siblings to see how they are doing.

Vladimir Putin has announced that his government will spend $19.6b (584 billion rubles) on auto-sector stimulus, with spending planned on technology development, employee re-training, direct subsidies, and cash-for-clunker-style consumer stimulus. Another $20b of investment is expected from foreign automakers. These measures are aimed at a host of of ills besetting the Russian auto industry and market, ranging from what the government describes as a 4-7 year technological deficit, and a 50 percent drop in sales last year.

Yesterday, we wrote why Hyundai’s unions are unhappy about Hyundai global expansion plans which. For some reasons, the unions think production abroad will harm South Korean jobs.

The unions have reasons for heightened annoyance. Insideline reports that Avtotor may buy the closed down Izhavto plant (Izhavto filed for bankruptcy in August 2009) in Izhevsk, Udmurt Republic, to build Hyundai and Kia vehicles. Avtotor is one of Russia’s largest assemblers of cars that come as kits. And why would that be of concern to Korea’s metal workers?

In the confusion of the recent Saab-Spyker deal, an interesting tidbit has flown beneath the radar until recently. Most industry news outlets [ ourselves included] had reported that Spyker’s backing from Russia’s Conversbank had given GM intellectual property nightmares, and that the deal had gone through with backing from other corners. Not so, it turns out. Bloomberg [via BusinessWeek] reports that Alexander Antonov confirms his bank supplied the first $25m in payments to GM. A strange turn of events, considering Russian backing for Magna’s failed Opel bid (and GM’s attendant IP paranoia) was said to have scuttled the deal (and that didn’t even have Convers’s bizarre Chechen blood feud connection).

A report about the automotive industry in the BRIC countries, released by the Boston Consulting Group, throws cold water on the low cost production story:

“In manufacturing, companies are generally paying a premium of 5 to 15 percent to manufacture in the BRIC countries, mainly because of diseconomies of scale and higher quality-assurance costs than they incur in the more developed markets; only in Brazil do they actually save money on manufacturing.”

Ooops.

Apart from this astounding revelation, the rest of the report is full of platitudes and comes 20 years too late:

China’s Geely has joined other manufacturers such as Chevrolet, Ford, Hyundai, Renault, Kia, and Toyota, and launched a production line in Russia. Geely opened a plant in Russia’s Caucasus republic of Karachay-Cherkessia, China’s state news agency Xinhua reports.

Remember the BRIC countries, saviors of the auto industry? Brazil, Russia, India, China. Brazil (+11.35 percent,) India (+18.7 percent) and especially China (+45 percent) performed as advertised. But Russia? Russia’s car 2009 car sales are such a disaster that BRIC will stay BIC for the foreseeable future.

Russia’s new car sales tanked by 49 percent in 2009 to just 1,465,917 units, according to data of the Association of European Businesses in the Russian Federation.

These days, no Christmas cheer is complete without a little Opel jeer. Russia’s Sberbank has demanded compensation from GM for reneging on the Opel deal, Sberbank CEO German Gref said in an interview on Russia’s Vesti television channel. Groveled a grouchy Gref:

GM’s CEO and Chairman Ed Whitacre confirmed today that Dutch boutique sportscar firm Spyker is the only bidder for what’s left of Saab after the BAIC deal. Saab insiders insist that the firm can continue without the old tooling and technology sold to BAIC, and they still have their hopes pinned on the new 9-5 model. But, as the WSJ reports, Spyker earned a mere €7.9m in 2008 revenue, and has already endured an €8.7m net loss in the first half of this year. Spyker’s in no position to be saving struggling Swedish automakers. But behind Spyker is Convers Group, a Russian banking group with deep pockets… and a uniquely Russian reputation.

Renault may be playing Russian Roulette, but at least it seems the French automaker is finally playing nicely with Avtovaz and the Kremlin. Maybe the thought of ending up like Mikhail Khodorkovsky spurred Carlos Ghosn into action? Or maybe Ghosn came around when he found out that the Kremlin is going to put $1.7 billion into the ailing Russian car maker. The St. Petersburg Times reports that Renault will invest a mere €300 million in the form of of a technology transfer so that Avtovaz can start building the Logan, Renault’s smash hit in Eastern Europe. It’s like the Fiat-Chrysler deal, only cheaper! Renault will also help Avtovaz develop a new car to replace the Zhiguli (I’d never heard of it, either). Some of this production will happen in Russia’s far east and Renault’s Japanese subsidiary is there to help!

Renault may be about to learn the folly of buying into a Russian company with close ties to the Russian government instead of establishing a presence of their own. Renault recently took a 25% stake in Avtovaz and things have gone from bad to worse. Avtovaz cut its staff by 25% and is now teetering on the brink of bankruptcy. Which is why Russia’s deputy prime minister, Igor Shuvalov, on Sunday said “If the Renault-Nissan alliance wishes to increase its participation to the point where it takes control, Russia will not be against it,”. He then went on to say “we will have to go to other potential partners and investors,”. These are the words which Renault should pay close attention to.