After a tough couple of years, consumers went into 2022 hopeful that unhinged automotive pricing and lean dealer lots would be a thing of the past. However, analysts and industry groups have gone from being cautiously optimistic just a few weeks ago to fairly sullen about the prospects of North American shoppers locating anything that could be considered a square deal.

Goldman Sachs recently issued a report that attempted to encapsulate the whole picture, citing sustained congestion at the ports, pandemic-related factory closures, market inflation, millions of people just dropping out of the workforce, and continued complications stemming from the semiconductor shortage. It estimated that vehicle pricing would fail to go down — and may even pitch up in the first half of 2022 — until all of the above issues have been addressed. But it was hardly the only group chiming in or suggesting that the hard times could last through 2023, as the goalpost for what should be deemed acceptable is moved yet again.

Sales Forecast, August 2012Sales VolumeSept’12Sept’11Aug’12YoYMoMGM211,064207,145240,5201.90%-12.20%Ford176,049174,862196,7490.70%-10.50%Toyota160,560121,451188,52032.20%-14.80%Chrysler138,030127,334148,4728.40%-7.00%Honda114,60689,532131,32128.00%-12.70%Nissan88,97792,96498,515-4.30%-9.70%Industry1,145,3441,053,1531,284,6358.80%-10.80%

A day after TrueCar and Kelley handed in their sales forecasts for September, Edmunds followed. Edmunds is more on the cautious side and projects that 1,145,344 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. this month for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 14.4 million light vehicles, and up 8.8 percent from a year before.

Sales Projection For September 2012TrueCarKelleyManufacturerSept’12YoYSept’12YoYChrysler137,6128.1%134,5205.6%Ford177,0661.3%177,8401.6%GM212,2842.5%215,4604.0%Honda113,43926.7%109,44022.2%Hyundai/Kia102,28316.7%93,4806.6%Nissan92,349-0.7%92,340-0.7%Toyota161,20132.7%163,02034.2%Volkswagen48,30431.4%47,88029.7%Industry1,163,00010.5%1,140,0008.2%

The month is coming to an end. A sure indicator: The forecasters are submitting their guesses. Again, September seems to be up solidly. More. Or less.

What the government giveth, the government taketh away: After the Japanese government discontinued subsidies for “fuel-efficient cars” (well, just about anything that was street legal, including a handful of American gas-guzzlers that received preferential treatment) Japan’s domestic auto sales are forecasted to drop 9.9 percent in 2011 from this year, Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association JAMA tells The Nikkei [sub] today. All in all, no big drama.

Nobody in possession of his or her faculties doubts that China will remain the world’s largest auto market for this year and years to come. In 2009, Chinese bought 13.6m vehicles, up 45 percent. In the U.S.A. 10.4m units changed hands in 2009, down 21.2 percent. This year, the U.S. A. is expected to recover, but not by much: J.D. Power forecasts 11.2m units sold in the U.S. for 2010. How many will be driven off dealers’ lots in China this year?