Early 2022 Auto Sales Forecasts Are Disheartening

After a tough couple of years, consumers went into 2022 hopeful that unhinged automotive pricing and lean dealer lots would be a thing of the past. However, analysts and industry groups have gone from being cautiously optimistic just a few weeks ago to fairly sullen about the prospects of North American shoppers locating anything that could be considered a square deal.

Goldman Sachs recently issued a report that attempted to encapsulate the whole picture, citing sustained congestion at the ports, pandemic-related factory closures, market inflation, millions of people just dropping out of the workforce, and continued complications stemming from the semiconductor shortage. It estimated that vehicle pricing would fail to go down — and may even pitch up in the first half of 2022 — until all of the above issues have been addressed. But it was hardly the only group chiming in or suggesting that the hard times could last through 2023, as the goalpost for what should be deemed acceptable is moved yet again.

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Edmunds Sees September Up 8.8 Percent

Sales Forecast, August 2012Sales VolumeSept’12Sept’11Aug’12YoYMoMGM211,064207,145240,5201.90%-12.20%Ford176,049174,862196,7490.70%-10.50%Toyota160,560121,451188,52032.20%-14.80%Chrysler138,030127,334148,4728.40%-7.00%Honda114,60689,532131,32128.00%-12.70%Nissan88,97792,96498,515-4.30%-9.70%Industry1,145,3441,053,1531,284,6358.80%-10.80%

A day after TrueCar and Kelley handed in their sales forecasts for September, Edmunds followed. Edmunds is more on the cautious side and projects that 1,145,344 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. this month for an estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) of 14.4 million light vehicles, and up 8.8 percent from a year before.

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September Up 10 Percent, Says TrueCar. Kelley Says A Little Less

Sales Projection For September 2012TrueCarKelleyManufacturerSept’12YoYSept’12YoYChrysler137,6128.1%134,5205.6%Ford177,0661.3%177,8401.6%GM212,2842.5%215,4604.0%Honda113,43926.7%109,44022.2%Hyundai/Kia102,28316.7%93,4806.6%Nissan92,349-0.7%92,340-0.7%Toyota161,20132.7%163,02034.2%Volkswagen48,30431.4%47,88029.7%Industry1,163,00010.5%1,140,0008.2%

The month is coming to an end. A sure indicator: The forecasters are submitting their guesses. Again, September seems to be up solidly. More. Or less.

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Japanese Car Market Projections: Overall Flat

What the government giveth, the government taketh away: After the Japanese government discontinued subsidies for “fuel-efficient cars” (well, just about anything that was street legal, including a handful of American gas-guzzlers that received preferential treatment) Japan’s domestic auto sales are forecasted to drop 9.9 percent in 2011 from this year, Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association JAMA tells The Nikkei [sub] today. All in all, no big drama.

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China's 2010 Car Sales: More Than 15 Million? More Than 17 Million?

Nobody in possession of his or her faculties doubts that China will remain the world’s largest auto market for this year and years to come. In 2009, Chinese bought 13.6m vehicles, up 45 percent. In the U.S.A. 10.4m units changed hands in 2009, down 21.2 percent. This year, the U.S. A. is expected to recover, but not by much: J.D. Power forecasts 11.2m units sold in the U.S. for 2010. How many will be driven off dealers’ lots in China this year?

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  • Wjtinfwb We had one of these LTD wagons in the daily rental fleet I worked while in College. It had been returned early from the lease customer and dumped into daily rental duty to milk a few more dollars out of it before it went to auction. As a lease/rental car, it's maintenance had been... eh, spotty at best. But one Friday night I needed a big car to take some friends down to the coast for dinner. The LTD was available so I grabbed the keys. Loaded with 3 couples and a cooler full of beer and wine, we set of on the 60 mile drive to the coast. The HOT light came on about halfway but there was no service station open on the drive down US 319. So we kept driving. Parked at the restaurant, food and many beers and wine ensued, we poured back into the LTD and headed back to campus. The HOT light popped on 20 miles in, so we kept driving. Dropped the wagon back at the rental lot, the V6 dieseling to a clanky end. Monday came, I figured the Ford was toast so avoided it but returned from lunch to find an associate had rented it again. Surprised it even started, I figured a rescue call was soon to be requested. Nothing. Two days later it was returned, the lady returning it said the HOT light came on, but she kept driving as everything seemed fine but she noticed a really bad smell. I drove it around back, popped the hood and started checking fluids; radiator, dry as a bone. crankcase, no oil on the dipstick. Even the transmission and power steering fluids were MIA. I filled the radiator with tap water, poured 3 quarts of 30 weight Quaker State in to the filler and slammed the hood. Eventually, the thermostat was replaced as the cause of the overheating but the LTD kept running until I got fired for wrecking a Fairmont. Tough car...
  • Oberkanone Honda has made an effor. Carmakers Try to Cajole Consumers Into Caring About Air-Bag Recall - WSJAnd this was in 2017.
  • Verbal Back in the 90's there was a bumper sticker that said, "Would you drive any better with that cell phone up your a$$?"
  • FreedMike On the one hand, it doesn't look good. On the other hand, not releasing the car into the hands of the general public until the obvious bugs are worked out is a good idea for a brand new company. Time will tell.
  • FreedMike I do take phone calls using Car Play if I'm not in traffic; it's a little bit of a distraction, but not much. I think it's certainly within an acceptable risk margin if you're not in heavy traffic. Back in the old days when I had a manual car and no Bluetooth, I never used the phone while driving at all.