#PR

Ever since Toyota’s recent problems hit “frenzy” level on our mainstream media monitoring system, speculation has been rampant that some mysterious electronic problem was at the root of the unintended acceleration scandal. We’ve been wary of jumping on the “ghost-in-the-machine” bandwagon, for a number of reasons, chief among which is the fact that it seems to be the product of an inability to explain specific instances of unintended acceleration, rather than hard evidence. Given that unintended acceleration occurs at the intersection of man and machine, good old-fashioned human error is an easier assumption than mystery software errors. Given the worrying results of our Toyota gas pedal analysis, we’ve been content to explain the situation on a combination of pedals, mats and human error. But now ABC News may just have the first positive evidence of an electronic problem that could explain the mystery behind Toyota’s unintended acceleration problem. Dave Gilbert of Southern Illinois University has found that it’s possible to cause unintended acceleration without it triggering an error code that might give some kind of clue as to its cause. Combined with our finding that Toyota actively conceals data from its black box data recorders (out of line with standard industry practice), this could be some of the first positive evidence that there’s more to the “ghost in the machine” theory than mere panic-driven speculation.

The social media blog Mashable has an interesting theory: Toyota’s recall woes might actually be good (gasp) good for the brand. To back up this astonishing claim, they offer two premises, based on online social media data:

The first is that the increased number of conversations about Toyota are building greater awareness for the brand even though many of the mentions may be negative. While this may seem unusual, the fact that people are talking about the brand a lot more and sometimes in a neutral light (not just negatively) is increasing its exposure. More people are talking about Toyota than any other brand these days. And they’re talking about the recalls, but also the fixes being provided by the dealerships too. And some of the consumers are probably coming to the defense of the brand too. Maybe there is some truth to the adage that there’s no such thing as bad publicity after all.

As we fumble towards a more complete understanding of Toyota’s stunning fall from grace, we’ve only uncovered a single class of people who truly stand to benefit from the last several weeks of hysteria: the lawyers, of course. Thanks to Toyota’s deep reserves of cash, every single possible damage incurred in the last several weeks will be picked over for an opportunity to sue the world’s largest automaker, and already the suits have crossed over into the realm of the absurd. Automotive News [sub] reports on latest class-action suit charge against Toyota, which seeks damages from the automaker for diminished resale value and lost use of recalled vehicles. These charges have been filed as class-action suits in “at least 30 states,” and lawyers suggest that the damages could run as high as $2b. Ford paid Explorer owners $500 a piece when it settled similar class-action suits in the wake of its Firestone safety scandal.

Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood’s get-tough quotes during the Toyota recall have generated significant backlash against an administration that is already knee-deep in the automotive industry. The governors of Mississippi, Kentucky, Indiana and Alabama (all of which host Toyota plants) laid into the NHTSA and Obama administration in a letter covered by the Detroit News. The governors argue:

Despite the federal government’s obvious conflict of interest because of its huge financial stake in some of Toyota’s competitors … it has spoken out against Toyota, including statements U.S. government officials have later been forced to retract… Toyota must put the safety of drivers first and foremost. However, they deserve a level and reasonable response from the federal government – one that is not tainted by the federal government’s financial interest in some of Toyota’s competitors

Strangely, the governors of Texas and West Virginia, where Toyotas are also assembled declined to sign onto the letter. Still, the attack isn’t being simply written off has home-state selfishness. One bellwether for the issue is the fact that the Detroit News looked past its own hometown interests and ran an editorial by the Cato Institute’s Daniel Ikensen, amplifying the governors’ critique. And sure enough, Obama decided to take the issue on head-on in an interview yesterday.

Toyota’s PR efforts have been competent if muted during the ongoing recall scandal. Though it could certainly have done more in the past weeks (specifically by making top leadership more available to the public) Toyota has carefully avoided overreacting to the mushrooming media frenzy. Until now. The NYT’s Wheels Blog reports that the 173 Toyota dealers who make up Toyota Southeast have pulled regional ads from ABC stations because of “excessive stories on the Toyota issues.” Toyota Southeast’s ad agency 22Squared says “We have counseled the client on the pros and cons of this, and ultimately it was their decision to make.” Toyota continues to run corporate ads on ABC, but the petulant backlash from its Southeast dealers can’t help but reflect poorly on the brand. Any PR pro will tell you (and presumably 22Squared counseled its clients of this), that these kinds of strong-arm tactics do nothing to improve public perceptions of a brand. Toyota dealers might feel that the parent company is not doing enough on the PR front, but this approach will only create the need for more PR in the future.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of Jim Lentz’s appearance on Digg Dialogue was the number of questions that were unrelated to Toyota’s ongoing recalls and quality issues. But even if crowdsourcing had yielded a number of truly tough questions, Lentz had access to them ahead of the interview, giving him time to craft slippery answers. Still, the session provides an interesting of a preview of Toyota’s defense ahead of tomorrow’s congressional hearing. The main thrust: unintended acceleration is mysterious phenomenon, and finding a common cause for multiple incidents could be nearly impossible. Unless investigators find a ghost in Toyota’s electronics code, that may be as good of an answer as we’re ever going to get.

The legal angle to the Toyota recall story has been a source of constant amusement, from an early attempt to prevent Toyota from enacting its gas pedal fix, to news today [via Reuters] that at least 30 class-action suits have been filed since the recall began. “This is going to a little cottage industry all of its own,” says Matt Cairns of DRI, the Voice of the Defense Bar, the largest U.S. civil defense attorney association.

If there’s one certainty in the car business, it’s that you know a company is in trouble when their ads forgo showing off their latest models in favor of gauzy images of beloved products past. It’s a trick that the Detroit firms have played to death over their 30 years of decline, and now Toyota is dipping a toe in the soothing waters of nostalgia. For contrast, check out Hyundai’s “more-Toyota-than-Toyota” Super Bowl spot after the jump.

TTAC has reported on VW’s plans to become the global number one. Looking at Toyota’s current quality problems, one could be excused for thinking that there just might be some substance to Wolfsburg’s plans. After all, Toyota’s days of glory seem to be over, while VW is on a roll, with sales growing and quality improving. Right?