#MarchSales2010

Yesterday, we admitted to the sin of a faulty prognosis: More than a week ago, we had forecasted a March growth rate between 50 and 60 percent for the Chinese auto market. Yesterday, the number came in as 63 percent. Shame on us. However, yesterday’s number was passenger vehicles only. Our patent-pending forecasting model covers all cars. Now, the real number is in.

It’s that time of the month again: In the first days of the month, market observers in China eagerly await the GM China sales number. GM usually is first to report. What’s more, GM is the canary in the ( ooops) Chinese coal mine, a very good indicator for the overall market. Looking back at March, that canary happily tweets that GM’s March sales in China, including Wuling vans, accelerated 68 percent to 230,048 units. Shanghai GM’s sales of Buicks, Chevys, and a few Cadillacs rose 89 percent annually to 86,967 units. That according to Associated Press. This is another record Middle Kingdom month for GM, the 15th in a row, and it indicates a March surprise for the Chinese market.

Car researcher Edmunds sees an exceptionally strong March rebound in U.S. car sales. They expect new vehicle sales to come in 31 percent higher than March 2009. The most muscular comeback kid? Would you believe it, Edmunds expects sales of the already counted out Toyota to explode in March. They also see the Detroit 3 solidly overwhelmed by the furriners, Ford’s heroic efforts notwithstanding.