#Earthquake

Yesterday’s good news from strategically important Japanese automotive chip maker Renesas did not last long. Now for the bad news: Their automotive microcontroller chips will be strictly rationed when they eventually ship. This being Japan, it is said more politely: Renesas is “thinking about the development of voluntary rules for major automakers,” as Japan’s Yomiuri Shimbun puts it.

Production of Legacy, Outback and Tribeca Subarus in Lafayette, Ind. will pause on Friday, April 15, Monday, April 18 and Monday, April 25 while Subaru sorts out supplies from Japan, Subaru of Indiana spokeswoman spokeswoman Jennifer McGarvey told Automotive News [sub].

Nobody who knows the business a little thinks the consequences the March 11 earthquake and tsunami will be isolated to Toyota and a little Honda. Renault is joined both at the top and at the hip with Nissan. Renault warned today that its French operation could be affected – albeit in a roundabout way.

In a memo that surprises no-one that has followed TTAC’s extended coverage of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, Toyota’s U.S. chief Bob Carter warns dealers that deliveries of parts and cars could be severely restricted for months to come. “What we don’t know are vehicle production levels for May through July,” Bob Carter wrote in a memo. “The potential exists that supply of new vehicles could be significantly impacted this summer.” You have seen this coming.

Better get used to this: Barely had Toyota announced that it will reopen its Japanese plants, then Toyota U.S.A. chimes in and says: “We are shutting down.” Welcome to the supply chain gang. Toyota is running its N.A. vehicle plants on what they call “a reduced schedule.”

Meaning:

When we worked on the Phaeton launch in 2001, we said it had “more computers than a small company.” It had 56. Today’s cars have anywhere between 30 and 100 computers on board. They are small microcontrollers that typically chat with each other via a CAN bus. You don’t take just any microcontroller for the job. They need to hold up to the harsh environment inside of a car. Their makers need to hold up to the harsh environment presented by the purchasing departments of automakers that squeeze them for every penny. As a result of both, there are only a few players in this field. This is the story of one of them.

It is the morning after a 7.4 magnitude tremor,the strongest aftershock so far, located in approximately the same area as the devastating March 11 quake, rattled northern Japan. Most of the increasingly quake-blasé Japan shrugged it off.

Then in the late Japanese morning, a bit of good news from and for the automotive sector. Toyota Japan will re-open for business on April 18.

Nobody dares to say it aloud, but parts of the “Buy American” contingent are secretly high-fifing when bad news from Japan is on TV or on the net. U.S. car companies themselves aren’t so sure, one missing chip, or an absent acceleration sensor can bring a whole line down. And of course they won’t be caught saying something reprehensible. Leave it to the Deutsche Bank and The Nikkei to end the (dis)grace period and to come out with their analysis of which carmaker might gain from the Tohoku tsunami.

Everybody thinks the Japanese auto industry will re-open for business next week, and will happily produce away. This is clearly not the case. What will be opened will proceed very carefully through the minefields of missing parts and cut power. A lot will not be re-opened at all.

When we reported yesterday about the flash message that Toyota will restart the Corolla production at the Sagamihara plant, we deduced that this could mean a prolonged outage for their new Miyagi plant up north. As often, there is a bigger story lurking in a smaller story.

Living with container transit times in your head, you know when the parts pipeline from Japan to overseas locations should run dry. Japan to Europe is about four weeks. And exactly 4 weeks after the tsunami hit in Tohoku, Honda will set its Swindon plant in the UK to max conserve. According to Reuters, Honda will reduce its UK output by half, starting on April 11.

Paul Nolasco at Toyota sends us a message saying that Toyota has “decided to resume production at the Sagamihara Plant of Central Motor. Production is to start on April 11.”

Why should this impact the Yaris? Please bear with us.

It is too late to reach anyone at Toyota to find out the exact significance of the message. What follows is an educated guess until we can update you with firsthand information.

Not very unexpectedly, ratings agency Moody’s is looking into taking it’s view of Toyota’s long-term debt down a notch. Usually reliable Reuters says that Moody’s “put its credit rating on Toyota Motor Corp on review for a possible downgrade.” For the obvious reasons, namely disruptions to Toyota’s supply chain from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami and subsequent power cuts. Even if bond ratings put you to sleep, you might be interested in Moody’s views on the resumption on normal car production.

“Toyota will not be resuming vehicle production at most of its plants next week, contrary to what has been reported.”

This was Toyota spokesman Paul Nolasco’s answer when we reached him this (Tokyo) morning for a comment on a story that had appeared in The Nikkei [sub] at 2 a.m. last night. (Emphasis ours.) Without quoting sources, the Nikkei had written that “Toyota Motor Corp. has decided to reopen most of its domestic automobile plants as early as next week to start churning out a limited number of models.” This is clearly humbug. The Nikkei has done it again.

In an oddly-timed 2 am (Tokyo time) filing, The Nikkei [sub] writes that “Toyota Motor Corp. has decided to reopen most of its domestic automobile plants as early as next week to start churning out a limited number of models.”

When you have a problem, there usually is no shortage of well-meant advice. When it emerged that power shortage is the biggest problem of the quake- and tsunami-stricken Japanese auto industry, or the Japanese industry as whole, good advice came pouring in. It ranged from “why don’t they just park an aircraft carrier by the dock” to “what’s wrong with using generators?” What’s wrong with them?