By on August 5, 2021

One of the reasons electric vehicles have been so polarizing is down to the near-constant proclamations that they’re the superior mode of transportation. But truth is usually a mixed bag and spending some time with EVs has shown them to have some serious blind spots that will need to be addressed if they’re ever to supplant internal combustion vehicles. Electrics aren’t always the better option, though they do boast features that make them extra desirable to some.

Among those was the promise that owning an EV yielded lower maintenance costs. But there’s a new study out claiming that’s not entirely true. Data is pointing to electrics actually having average servicing fees higher than traditional automobiles. 

We Predict, an analytics firm that uses predictive modeling, data mining (shudder), and plain-old statistics, has claimed that EVs were 2.3 times more expensive to service than their gasoline-driven counterparts over the first three months of ownership. Those numbers were crunched beneath the weight of data on over 19 million vehicles (MY 2016-2021) but are supposed to get better over time.

Despite being more troublesome and costly in the initial stages of ownership, We Predict estimated that EV servicing fees would only be 1.6 times greater after a full year. Forbes even framed the entire report as proof that electrics would eventually average lower over a long enough timeline.

From Forbes:

A year after an electric vehicle’s launch We Predict found the the number of so-called “incidents” per 1,000 vehicles dropped 33 [percent] from its initial launch and repair costs declined 27 [percent]. But by the second year incidents per 1000 vehicles fell by 14 [percent[ but the cost to repair those vehicles decreased 65 [percent].

“It looks like the EV costs are actually very front-loaded,” explained [We Predict founder and CEO James Davies]. “Once you get through the launch of a vehicle and get through the first three to six months it’s just about trying to figure out how to fix the problems you have. Those costs begin to come down precipitously.”

But it failed to address the sizable expenses associated with battery replacement. Modern EVs lose about 2.5 percent of their maximum charge annually, resulting in a vehicle that will probably need its cells replaced after eight to ten years (or it passes the 100,000-mile threshold). While that’s about the time most original owners would be considering a new car, the issue would still need to be covered by whoever purchases the vehicle next unless it’s heading directly to the scrap heap. Though that would undermine the premise that EVs are environmentally friendlier than their ICE equivalents and bode poorly for resale values.

It’s also a little strange that we’re discussing EVs being front-loaded with problems as a good thing. But We Predict suggested this was likely due to electrics being relatively new (at least in the mass market sense) and haven’t had time to mature as a platform. The majority of incidents relate to wiring or charging issues, which mimics the subject of most EV-related recalls. Though the heaviness of batteries may also lead to suspension issues and the report makes mention of electrics seeing greater wear and tear on wheels and related components.

The firm believes these issues will diminish as the industry begins selling more alternative energy vehicles. Right now EVs take 1.5 times longer to fix than gasoline models with labor costs that are 1.3 times more. But those are both likely to drop when and if the market breakdown shifts toward electrics. Even if it doesn’t, most pure electrics should still enjoy less routine maintenance than gasoline or diesel models.

We Predict said that it plans to release a secondary report in the future that examines EV service costs after three years of ownership.

[Image: Virrage Images/Shutterstock]

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62 Comments on “Study Suggests EVs Cost More to Service...”


  • avatar
    redapple

    Guys

    Off topic. Did Jason S get fired? Or beat down by us so much – he quit. (I thought the crowd was a little rough on him- should give him time to get his sea legs) No posts in a long time.

  • avatar
    JMII

    EV have less parts, but those parts are more difficult and expensive to service. Also how much of this comes down confused customers not understanding the tech? For example Ford got ripped in many of these surveys due to buggy MS Sync systems. Or is this due to Telsa’s somewhat iffy build quality on many early models? Also are parts wearing due the performance? As everyone knows a Telsa will out drag a Hell Cat – and for sure that is going to burn thru tires and brakes much faster then your average sedan.

    • 0 avatar
      MrIcky

      This study needed more information. I wonder if some of the cost involved is basically paying for techs to learn through experience. The motors are simple, youd rarely touch a battery at an early service. I could see it being the auto update type features that you mention. The controllers and battery management schemes can be complicated? How much service is really being done in the first 3 months of ownership anyway- which makes me think all the low volume electric vehicles have calibration issues.

      • 0 avatar
        pale ghost

        What am I missing ? Aren’t EV and IC vehicles under warranty the first three months of ownership? I would expect $0 cost for both except electricity and gas respectively.

  • avatar
    indi500fan

    Unless replacement batteries get MUCH cheaper, there will be a LOT of evs heading to the scrap yard before the useful life of the chassis is over. Especially in areas where rust isn’t an issue.

    I can’t see anybody putting 10 grand or more plus labor into a 10 year old vehicle.

    • 0 avatar
      mcs

      The batteries are improving. LiFePO4 batteries on low end 3’s last forever, sodium ion is starting production, and lithium-ion degradation has improved.

    • 0 avatar
      SoCalMikester

      where have all the priuses gone when theyre end of life? thats your answer!

      • 0 avatar
        el scotto

        @SoCalMikester; Sir, a possible post for Murilee? Worn-out, not wrecked Prii? in a junkyard? Has anyone seen any?

      • 0 avatar
        indi500fan

        When a Prius gets old and there’s battery degradation, does it just shut down and force a replacement, or are you able to keep driving with some loss of the hybrid fuel economy enhancement but still having a pretty functional car?

        • 0 avatar
          Luke42

          @indie500fan:
          “When a Prius gets old and there’s battery degradation, does it just shut down and force a replacement, or are you able to keep driving with some loss of the hybrid fuel economy enhancement but still having a pretty functional car?”

          You get a check-engine-light before the battery is incapacitated.

          You buy a replacement battery at that point from some place like this:
          https://greenbeanbattery.com/5-year-full-warranty-prius-hybrid-battery

          Prius batteries are small, and can be replaced in your driveway by a mobile service person.

          Prii are designed around the “magic transmission” hybrid architecture, and I think you’ll find that a) the Prius eCVT transaxle is mind-bogglingly simple and extraordinarily reliable, and the b) the battery (the heart of the eCVT) is cheaper and far easier to replace than you expect. There are multiple teardowns and howtos on YouTube if you want to get into the technical details of what it takes to perform this service on your own.

          Batteries aren’t the thing that will put a Prius in the junkyard. Ours only ended up in salvage because it got run over by a Silverado driver who wasn’t paying attention at a stoplight. We would have replaced one of these batteries, no problem — but $10k in body damage was too much on a 12-year-old car.

    • 0 avatar
      SCE to AUX

      The first edition 2012 Model S’ are 9 years old now. I haven’t heard that people are scrapping them, but on a used $30k EV with 100k miles, some range degradation is to be expected.

      2012 Leafs? Sure – I had one, and its battery was not good.

      To your point, though, I wouldn’t personally invest that kind of money in an old car. Some people have tried to turn a ‘bargain’ EV into a useful car by replacing its battery, but it always leads to sadness.

      But would I do it for a 1915 Detroit Electric? Maybe.

      • 0 avatar
        SoCalMikester

        OTOH, i still see 1st gen priuses around that have had the original battery rebuilt or replaced. rebuild kits are around $1000, ez to do shadetree

    • 0 avatar
      96redse5sp

      It’s cheaper to replace an EV battery than to replace the engine and transmission in an ICE car. And the ICE engine and transmission will need to he replaced more.often. That’s why junkyards are chock-full of ICE cars…

      • 0 avatar
        jalop1991

        “It’s cheaper to replace an EV battery than to replace the engine and transmission in an ICE car. And the ICE engine and transmission will need to he replaced more.often.”

        Each of those statements is horribly, horribly wrong.

        Also, junkyards are chock full of ICE cars because the world is chock full of ICE cars. I wouldn’t hesitate to say the world’s car population is 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% ICE. No, wait–more.

        • 0 avatar
          ToolGuy

          “I wouldn’t hesitate to say the world’s car population is 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999% ICE. No, wait–more.”

          In all of history, approximately 107 billion people have lived on Earth.

          If each of them owned a vehicle, and only 1 person ever had an EV, the all-time ICE percentage would be 99.999999999%.

          If every human had owned a -million- vehicles, and there was only one single EV built in the history of the world, your math would still be off by something like ten million million billion trillion. :-)

          [My rough math puts all-time EV share at something like 99.96% (if every ICE vehicle ever produced were still in existence, which might be true for all Kia Tellurides and certain Subarus, but is not the case for most ICE vehicles).]

      • 0 avatar
        28-Cars-Later

        That’s one of the most inaccurate thing I’ve ever read. In April I got a quote to rebuild a Ford AOD transmission of $1,500 or less. If said car needed a 5.0 motor, a reman or rebuild of the current motor would not be terribly expensive. Unless your batteries are $1,000 I could have drivetrains rebuilt or replaced for much less than the $10K+ of your Tesla. The average prole doesn’t have several thousand dollars to lay out or know how to get their drive train rebuilt and for them it is more economical to use that money for a downpayment on something else.

        • 0 avatar
          Ol Shel

          It’s not apples-to-apples to compare a pushrod Fox-body overhaul by Jasper to a luxury brand like Tesla.

          And I suspect that Tesla overcharges for their work. Elon needs to develop them rockets so his genetic legacy can live on on space, you know.

    • 0 avatar
      jalop1991

      “I can’t see anybody putting 10 grand or more plus labor into a 10 year old vehicle.”

      Shoot, I had a 2007 Honda van that I bought in 2017 for $9K, with 33K miles on it. But by 4 years later it had 66K on it, it was a 14 year old car, and it was overdue for its $1500 timing belt maintenance.

      And I decided I wasn’t going to put that kind of money into that old of a car.

      Absolutely, $10K into a 10 year old car? Won’t happen. The suspension no doubt needs work as well at that point, and who knows what stupid thing is waiting to come bite you in the butt. But more importantly, I won’t put that kind of money into 10 year old infotainment and crash structure technologies.

      No sir, improvements in chassis engineering come fast nowadays, and even a 5 year newer car is way better for crash protection than your old car. 10 years? No brainer.

      And as long as I’m there, I want the infotainment system to be useful–something we’ve seen disappear on 10 year old cars right and left, as Big Tech forces us down the upgrade or die track. And let’s face it, will you trust the 10 year old tablet on the dash–required just to use the car–to continue to work well after those 10 years? Or will that be the gremlin waiting to bite you?

      10 years on a Tesla-like EV, no way.

      • 0 avatar
        28-Cars-Later

        Nice buy on the minivan. Personally on acquisition I would have done the timing belt because driving 66K on an interference motor with a belt due is not a game I’d like to play.

  • avatar
    mcs

    “Modern EVs lose about 2.5 percent of their maximum charge annually, resulting in a vehicle that will probably need its cells replaced after eight to ten years (or it passes the 100,000-mile threshold). ”

    There are different battery formulations and different life cycles between different manufacturers. There are even different generations of batteries within single manufacturers with different life cycles. Like Teslas original cells, which improved with the Model 3/Y generation cells, and further improvements with the 4680’s. Then there are the Tesla LiFePO4 cells which have pretty good life as well. I’ve seen numbers of 4,500 cycles, so with a 200 mile range, that’s a life of 900k miles.

    Here’s a real-world example. Here’s an article on a Tesla that shows real-world degradation at less than 10% over 160k miles. Let’s say 16k miles a year, 10 years, and less than 10% so less than 1% a year.

    https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-replacement/

    My own personal experience is in 100k miles, I needed 4 tires, a 12 volt battery replacement ($70), wipers, and windshield washer fluid. The battery degradation has been 1.5% a year for me.

    • 0 avatar
      ajla

      You *can* get very low battery degradation on a Tesla. Just like you can run a 2.7L Concorde for 200k miles.

      Someone that meticulously tracks charge levels for optimum life isn’t going to be the common owner in the future. So what happens with a battery in the hands of a normie?

      FWIW, Car and Driver saw 7% degradation in 24k miles. Now they might be on the rougher side of the use scale but I don’t think they are liars either.

      Caranddriver.com/news/a35203450/tesla-
      model-3-battery-capacity-loss-warranty/

  • avatar
    Luke42

    All rare vehicles are expensive to service.

    Doesn’t matter if it’s a diesel car, or a $150k Tesla Model S plaid.

    If there aren’t already millions of that vehicle on the road, the expertise to work on that vehicle will cost you.

    As for the batteries, Tesla batteries have been lasting far longer than 100k-miles, except in 1st-draft EVs (like the early Nissan Leafs). The prices for Toyota hybrid batteries have come down dramatically over the two decades those cars have been in service, and I expect the same will happen to full EVs the economies of scale kick in over time.

    Remember that the battery replaces a lot of the mechanical complexity of the car. In a hybrid, the battery allows a dramatically simpler eCVT to replace an automatic transmission, costs about the same, lasts about as long, and is easier to replace. In an EV, the battery is the economic equivalent of the entire motor — costs about the same to replace, lasts about as long, and takes quite some effort to replace. The difference between gas and EV here matters less than the difference between a Jetta and a Corolla.

    The real issue here is “change anger” among people with a more conservative personality-type.

    • 0 avatar
      ajla

      You think the group cited is fabricating data?

    • 0 avatar
      28-Cars-Later

      Teslas are not rare, they are the standard bearer of the EV devolution. Rare is 150 total units, 2,000 total units etc. I’d wager some of the 1 of 125 built post war Lancias I saw at the car show are cheaper to service than a Tesla.

      • 0 avatar
        cdrmike

        Thought Tesla’s were rare until I counted 50 of them in 45 minutes, while in SF Bay Area last week.

      • 0 avatar
        Luke42

        My Volkswagen Jetta TDI was a rare vehicle.

        My GMC Sierra Hybrid is a rare vehicle.

        Parts and expertise are expensive and hard to find for these vehicles compared to, say, a Civic or an automatic transmission GMC Sierra. Those are rare-car problems, and not specific to EVs in any way.

        EVs aren’t as common as Civics and Silverados yet, and so they haven’t yet realized the full economies of scale that will come as the market matures.

        I’m up for dealing with rare-car problems, though, if what’s under the hood is interesting enough. …And EVs are very interesting.

        • 0 avatar
          Arthur Dailey

          ‘Rare’ is indeed relative.

          Try getting a Puegeot or Citroen serviced in North America. How many shops/mechanics will even touch it? Yet those vehicles are not ‘rare’ in other parts of the world.

          In the late 1980’s I purchased a brand new Honda Civic. Certainly not a vehicle that we in North America would consider to be rare. However it was the ‘realtime AWD’ wagon model. Just how many AWD vehicles was Honda manufacturing and/or selling in North America then?
          It was ‘rare’.

          Taking it into the Honda dealership was quite an experience because so few of their ‘technicians’ had any experience with this type of vehicle. Most times at least a couple of the staff would come out and start questioning me about it.

          As posted previously, I compare current EV technology to the ‘spiral’ flurescent bulbs most of us tried to replace wasteful incandescents. The CFL’s were only a stopgap until the much more efficient and useful LED’s appeared. And the LEDs were initially extremely expensive. Now with mass market production they are cheap and plentiful.

  • avatar
    SCE to AUX

    Since Teslas dominate the EV landscape, and Tesla service is notoriously expensive, I guess this makes sense for that brand – but that is not my experience.

    “claimed that EVs were 2.3 times more expensive to service than their gasoline-driven counterparts over the first three months of ownership”

    What car (of any type) needs service in the first 3 months of ownership, and what would that service be?! Bueller?

    I dunno; I’ve had a Nissan EV and a Hyundai EV. In 6 combined years of driving, they’ve needed wipers, wiper fluid, cabin air filters, and tires. Brakes, rotors, and tires are the same as any car. Even Tesla brake and wipers are cheap at RockAuto, but maybe Tesla shop labor is high.

    I’ve had my safety inspections and tires mounted at Monro Muffler, body work at a local shop, and a windshield replaced by Safelite – none required the mythical and expensive “EV Repair Center”.

    Reports like this just scare people who think they’ll need to get special EV windshield wipers or something.

  • avatar
    ajla

    Tesla with their hand-built roulette game quality is probably having an outsized impact on results here.

    • 0 avatar
      SCE to AUX

      If your car needs service in the first 3 months of ownership (which perhaps a poor-quality Tesla might), it should be covered under warranty. I can’t imagine what this report is talking about.

      • 0 avatar
        Lou_BC

        Tesla was my first though on the reliability front.

        Any up-front repairs would be under warranty.

        Mr.Posky needs to dig deeper as opposed to gleefully running with a “study” that fits his world view.

  • avatar
    ExPatBrit

    “EVs were 2.3 times more expensive to service than their gasoline-driven counterparts over the first three months of ownership”

    How can you extrapolate from that, most ICE vehicles haven’t even had an oil change?

  • avatar
    TR4

    2.3 X 0 = 0

  • avatar
    el scotto

    Well, a few things. Anything that goes wrong in the first year should be covered by the factory. Period. Secondly, some of the B&B actually work with numbers on a daily basis. Data mining and statistics are things we do. I could see if my sister (ironically) kept her “math is hard” Barbie doll and mail it to the writing staff. She’s a CPA BTW. Some of us would have liked to have seen the raw numbers. We’re geeky that way.

  • avatar
    jmo

    “Modern EVs lose about 2.5 percent of their maximum charge annually, resulting in a vehicle that will probably need its cells replaced after eight to ten years (or it passes the 100,000-mile threshold). ”

    Hum…the average person drives about 40 miles a day. A Model 3 has a 353 mile range. I doubt the average owner is going to feel the need to replace the battery in 10 years when (and if) the range is down to 264 miles.

    Yeh yeh, spare me the “I need to tow my boat over the rockies every day and it’s uphill both ways.”

    • 0 avatar
      28-Cars-Later

      Not average but my friend who travels to hospice patients seriously racked up nearly 60K in the past 12 months. My guess would be half daily work, half traveling back and forth to the boondocks where she lives.

      • 0 avatar
        Luke42

        EVs don’t have to be all things to all people in order to be a success.

        A hospice nurse should use the right tool for what they do.

        A cubical slave with a suburban home and a predictable 40-mile round-trip commute should use the right tool for what they do. A 300-mile EV which starts every day with the battery at 80% means they never have to stop for gas on their way to work.

        There are a lot more cubical slaves in the world and, if they all drove EVs, there would be a lot more gasoline left over for the hospice nurses (who may need to drive 200 miles at 2am to deal with a life-and-death situation).

        Using the right tool for the right is such a good idea that my grandfathers both considered it a proverb.

        • 0 avatar
          28-Cars-Later

          In your hypothetical world, less oil demand would translate into less oil extraction and likely higher oil prices. Since ICE is strangled by artificial means from CAFE to excessive emissions, it seems 30-35mpg is best hwy miles on average and I think even the Prius could only do 52/50 city/hwy. That world would put a squeeze on outliers like my friend, who is so poorly paid (IMO) she couldn’t slip into a $30K EV even if she wanted too.

          “A cubical slave with a suburban home and a predictable 40-mile round-trip commute should use the right tool for what they do”

          I do think this will still exist but the numbers of which will be reduced 40-50% since most office jobs do no require an office. I haven’t been keeping track exactly but my guess is nine months into the year I have put 5,000-6,000 miles on three cars and with some travel may add at most 5,000 more by the end of the year. I have zero economic reason to step into an EV or really any new car, and I’m not alone in this brave new world.

          • 0 avatar
            Luke42

            “In your hypothetical world, less oil demand would translate into less oil extraction and likely higher oil prices.”

            This claim directly contradicts the standard supply & demand model. In order to make this claim, you’re going to have to explain why the standard supply-and-demand model is wrong.

            But, even if you were correct, there’s no reason for me to care: As soon as I can get off of the fuel prices roller coaster by selling off our gasoline cars, then there’s no reason for me to care about fuel prices anymore. Once I cancel my household’s direct oil-dependence, fuel prices are your problem, not mine.

            EVs win, even with your backward economic model.

            “I do think this will still exist but the numbers of which will be reduced 40-50% since most office jobs do no require an office.”

            I sure hope so. No commute is far more efficient than a high-MPG commute. It saves time, money, and environmental impact. WFH is a big win, if it’s available to you.

            Driving a 50MPG Prius vs a 12MPG Corvette really doesn’t matter much if you only burn 4-5 tanks of gas per year, rather than 25-50 tanks of gas per year. A 90% fuel (and fuel-expense, and environmental-impact) reduction is a win, no matter how you slice it.

            The alternative energy folks used to talk about “negawatts” (energy savings) being the most efficient form of alternative energy. That applies to gallons of gasoline just as much as kilowatts and megawatts.

            Oil is really useful stuff. Let’s save America’s oil for when it has greater strategic significance. Better to use it to win future wars than to waste it driving to the office and taking the kids to soccer practice, when an EV does that job even better.

      • 0 avatar
        jmo

        60k miles is 164 miles a day or half the range of a Model 3.

  • avatar
    jmo

    The phrasing is also throwing me off. To me service costs are routine maintenance – oil change, timing belt, brake fluid flush, etc. Repair costs are things like the power steering pump fails or you need a new alternator.

    I can’t recall ever hearing the two concepts being combined into one term…

  • avatar
    ajla

    10 year/100k warranty on 10% battery degradation would be good.

  • avatar
    ToolGuy

    On the topic of battery degradation:

    0000. Eight years from now I could see buying a 6- to 10-year old EV which has significant battery degradation and getting a significant discount on the purchase price as a result and being ok with the range if it an around-town non-road-trip vehicle for me.

    0001. No matter how much the ‘first’ owner abused the battery, I will baby it (limited fast charging, relatively moderate temperatures, etc.) and the degradation from that point on will be less bad than it would have been.

    0010. Ten to twelve years from now I could see cracking open an EV battery and testing/replacing individual modules rather than springing for a whole new battery.

    0011. Twelve to fifteen years from now I could see purchasing motors, batteries and/or individual battery modules from aftermarket suppliers. Also adapters and conversion kits.

    0100. I will repurpose the old modules and/or battery, sell them to others who plan to repurpose them, or sell them for ‘scrap’ value (which will be greater than zero).

    0101. In the timeframes listed above, I won’t be on the bleeding edge of any of this.

  • avatar
    NigelShiftright

    EV’s – the vehicles themselves – are not polarizing.

    EV owners who won’t shut up about them are only a little polarizing.

    Governments that want to mandate the sales of EV’s? Yep. They are as gud-darned polarizing as all get out.

  • avatar

    Maintenance is not repairs and repairs are not maintenance.

    The report, which you stated incorrectly, does not use the term “maintenance”, which would refer to the cars regularly scheduled maintenance items. Instead, the report refers to “service”, which covers all maintenance and repairs. If you read the report then you would know that they were referring to over all costs in service and specifically pointed to items that required repair. Yes, those repair items tend to be more costly, but these are in no way related to maintenance costs, which are a fraction of the cost of ICE-powered cars. Considering that most of the electric cars are a lease, and likely under warranty, the costs associated with this report are on the manufacturer and not necessarily the car’s owner/leasee.

    You should refrain from improperly using the term “maintenance” when describing general repairs and be clear about what the report actually states here, which I can see was conveniently left out in the quoted portion you posted.

    • 0 avatar
      ajla

      “maintenance costs, which are a fraction of the cost of ICE-powered cars.”

      “Considering that most of the electric cars are a lease”

      How much maintenance costs do you think people are paying on 3yr/30k ICE lease in 2021?

  • avatar
    22_RE_Speedwagon

    I love my e350 wagon. The coupe is kinda pointless to me but if it drives anything like the wagon you’re in for a treat. Easily the most comfortable car I’ve owned and truly feels solid and special. I’ve had two weird electrical issues – one, the proximity sensors in the rear bumper went on the fritz and needed replacement, replaced under warranty but not cheap. The other, the all the door switches (windows and locks) stopped working one day and needed a reset by the dealer. Mechanically the only thing I would complain about is a propensity to develop brake judder, which I absolutely hate.

    The IS250 is such a dog. I test drove one and noped it right away.

  • avatar
    Snooder

    Get the ATS.

    It’s nice, relatively easy to service here in America, and you should be able to get a 2016 or 2017 model with about 30-40k miles that’s in your budget.

  • avatar
    Ol Shel

    As with so many modern electronic components, you fix it by buying a new one. They could be repaired by diagnosis, if anyone wanted to train people to do so (nope). Better to milk that money from consumers instead.

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