By on April 17, 2020

The coronavirus pandemic took a sizable bite out of new car registrations in the European Union last month. Volume was down 51.8 percent in March (including the United Kingdom), according to the European Auto Industry Association. While some of the absent vehicles are potentially waiting on official documents to come through after lockdown measures ease, most can be explained by the general lack of demand. Everyone knew last month would be a tough one, with the nations experiencing worst outbreaks likely see the largest sales disparities.

While no country was left unscathed, Reuters reports that Italy performed quite poorly in comparison to its neighbors. As it was the first European nation to report widespread contagion of COVID-19, that’s hardly surprising, and may indicate that its neighbors are about to find themselves in a similarly undesirable situation. 

From Reuters:

Sales fell in all EU markets, with Italy — hit particularly hard by the pandemic — reporting the biggest drop of 85.4 [percent], while registrations tumbled by 37.7 [percent] in Germany, 72.2 [percent] in France and 69.3 [percent] in Spain.

Volkswagen Group’s sales decreased by 43.6 [percent] in March, while Renault and PSA Group posted a drop of 63.7 [percent] and 66.9 [percent], respectively.

Sales of cars made by BMW, which was among the few automakers reporting an increase in European sales in the previous months, dropped by 39.7 [percent], while demand for rival Daimler decreased by 40.6 [percent].

While most European countries began shuttering car dealerships and assembly lines in the middle of March, Italians were already stepping up social distancing measures. Italian dealer groups began voluntarily closing shops a week or two before other markets followed suit. At the time, it was assumed March registrations in Italy could be down 85 percent if showrooms didn’t reopen — a premonition that turned out to be spot-on.

Based on contagion reports, Spain looks to be the country taking it on the chin next. Reported coronavirus cases have skyrocketed over the last couple of weeks and, like Italy, the nation has restricted testing to at-risk persons showing symptoms. The country’s Ministry of Health estimates the true number of cases are probably over 15 times higher than the official tally — and they’re already quite high. Presently, Spain is the European nation with the largest number of confirmed cases (188,068), and has a death toll (19,478) that’s probably days away from surpassing Italy.

Germany also has an exceptionally high number of cases (138,369) but its death rate is comparatively low (at just 4,105). Part of that can been attributed to the country enacting comprehensive testing procedures and having a clearer idea where its infections originated. There have also been claims that Germans were simply adhering to social distancing measures better than their neighbors — and had slightly more time to prepare.

In fact, Germany’s numbers may be more representative of what’s actually going on. As test kits are not yet broadly available in most nations, it’s assumed many are mistakenly counting any death that looks like COVID-19 as attributable to the pandemic. However, there’s no way of knowing how large the disparity actually is without more testing, and that will take weeks.

What is certain is that April’s new car registrations probably won’t look any better than they did in March. Already hamstrung by shutdowns enacted in the previous month, much of the automotive industry will remain sequestered until May. We predict European countries nearly across the board showing figures similar to what we’ve already seen in Italy. Fortunately, discussions are in the works on how to restart the global economy. Widespread shutdowns sound like they’re two weeks away from concluding (or beginning to conclude).

Climbing back out of the economic hole we’ve created is presumed to take the entirety of this year, and maybe some of 2021.

[Image: GLF Media/Shutterstock]

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90 Comments on “European Car Sales Sank Like a Stone in March; April Not Looking Any Better...”


  • avatar
    redapple

    Covid > China bio Weapon developed in lab.

    Did you see the story in the Daily Mail where they examine that lab’s practice of selling lab animals to the Wuhan Wet Market.

    China- NOT OUR FRIEND

    • 0 avatar
      conundrum

      The Daily Mail is a Conservative rag. I’d believe every word they say or sensationalize, yes sir. They’re always right on the money. London’s lower middle class screaming headline rag, one tiny step above the tabloids, just an impeccable source.

      The important thing at the moment is to try to slow down and stop the virus. The US has had the most shambolic response of any country. Talk about disorganized and unprepared. You won that trophy going away.

      So because it’s all so bad, and they’ve got nothing better to do, some people want to speculate and lay blame, rather than, you know, attend to the present mess. You can assign blame on the basis of any theory, I must have read two dozen, from it starting at Fort Dix to some Chinese guy working at the Canadian biosecurity lab stealing a sample, to deliberate bio-engineering in the evil Wuhan lab, which escaped when somebody forgot to close the door. But it’s unproductive because you have to fix the here and now regardless of where it started. What in hell is the point of pointing fingers right now? It isn’t going to make an ounce of difference in fixing the situation.

    • 0 avatar

      It is better than to let them die from hunger. Ever been hungry? You will beg for anything to eat.

      • 0 avatar
        thelaine

        No, they have never been poor, so they really don’t care. They are destroying the village in order to save it, because they are terrified.

        The LA Times did a poll that shows that 25% of the population thinks that if they get wuhanvirus, they will die. Actually, the mortality rate is about .1 percent of people who get infected. Pretty much like the flu, except fewer young people die from wuhan. The average age of mortality for wuhan is around 77. People in their 80s and 90s die at high rates, due to co-morbidity. So, yeah, destroy the economy. We can worry about crime and poverty later, since hysterics are incapable of risk analysis.

        “Two years before the novel coronavirus pandemic upended the world, U.S. Embassy officials visited a Chinese research facility in the city of Wuhan several times and sent two official warnings back to Washington about inadequate safety at the lab, which was conducting risky studies on coronaviruses from bats. The cables have fueled discussions inside the U.S. government about whether this or another Wuhan lab was the source of the virus — even though conclusive proof has yet to emerge.”

        https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/

        • 0 avatar
          thelaine

          So yeah, if you add the frantic coverup by the Chinese and their WHO minions, there is a rational basis to suspect that this virus escaped from the lab to the wet markets and then to Wuhan residents and then to the entire world.

          The Chinese coverup alone is ample reason to blame them for this, but the lab theory just makes it that much worse. They are responsible for this pandemic, one way or another.

          China is an evil fascist dictatorship, and the world needs to wake up.

          Still, we are responsible for the panic, hysteria and subsequent economic suicide. Not all nations lost their minds, and they fighting the virus just as well, without crushing their working poor, lower middle class, business owners, government fiscal health, etc.

          We should forever be ashamed and regretful. Hopefully, we will learn something.

        • 0 avatar
          Lie2me

          “They are destroying the village in order to save it”

          The village idiot is doing a pretty good job of destruction without any help

      • 0 avatar
        thelaine

        Speaking of LA, by one estimate, the coronavirus panic has already claimed 1.3 million jobs in L.A. County. Only 45% of local residents are still employed, compared with 61% in mid-March.

        LA Times

      • 0 avatar
        Arthur Dailey

        @theLaine: Please review actual data prior to posting opinion.

        For instance this link:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?zarsrc=130#countries

        And ArtV: I am also at the point where I would like to point fingers and assign blame for spreading/creating this virus.

        And am thankful that the nation where I live has seen all of its political leaders agree to defer decisions to those who actually have degrees/credentials applicable to public health.

        • 0 avatar
          thelaine

          Art,

          Yeah, Canada is awesome. Got it. You guys are amazing. Woo hoo! Inferiority complex much?

          Please review THIS data prior to posting your smug opinions. Luckily, I defer to the experts, and so does Sweden:

          Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:

          UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
          The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
          This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
          The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
          The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
          The paper was very much too pessimistic
          Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
          The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
          The results will eventually be similar for all countries
          Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
          The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
          At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

          https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/?=frpo

          Also, check this out:

          Universal heath care, great white north edition..

          https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/covid-19-private-seniors-home-dorval-chsld-herron-1.5530327

          The good news? I was all “free.”

          • 0 avatar
            Arthur Dailey

            @TheLaine. You are a one trick pony. The USA has a disaster on its hands. 40k dead and counting.

            And if things open up sooner, then the 2nd wave could be even worse.

            Scientific research depends on peer reviews and consensus, not the opinion of one person.

            If epidemiologists and public health officials agreed with him, then every country would have followed his recommendations.

            Instead the countries/jurisdictions that are doing the best are the ones that put in rigorous controls early. In North America, British Columbia, where one of our regular posters is a healthcare professional.

            Therefore his comments are first hand, based on data and experience.

            And your inferiority complex is showing. Just like that of your POTUS whenever he meets or speaks about our PM. Who is younger, fitter, far better looking and would easily ‘whup the POTUS butt’ in the ring.

          • 0 avatar
            thelaine

            Art,

            Like all leftists, you are obsessed with politics and immune to evidence. You will not find a more authoritative source than the one I provided, and you know it. That is why you brush it aside without listening to it. You ask for evidence, and when it is provided, with a source you cannot impeach, you blow it off. You were never interested in the truth, only your bizarre feud with the US president. Like your opinion of him makes a difference. I don’t care. No one does.

            You don’t care about anything but hating Trump, and pumping up your pathetic national pride. The more people die, and lose their jobs, the happier you are, because it may hurt Trump. That is pretty twisted. You are small and petty; an adult who fantasizes about your prime minister beating up the president. I have never seen someone so obsessed with another man. He owns you.

            You are completely uninterested in learning. You just promote your bigotry and provincialism, because you feel small and weak.

          • 0 avatar
            Lie2me

            Master Trump is his own worst enemy and doesn’t any help from the left or right in his self-destruction. He’s been in over his head since the day he became president and never had the coping skills to deal with any kind of crisis

            His reign of terror will be over at the end of this year if not sooner and you’ll be able to blame the next Democratic president for all your troubles, which will make you very happy, but safe and healthy

            This country always turns to a Democrat after the republicans have thoroughly screwed things up. This time won’t be any different

            Sleep well knowing that help is on the way :)

        • 0 avatar
          thelaine

          As of April 10th, 78% of verifiable deaths that the Center for Disease Control attributed to COVID-19 were people aged 65 or older. As an Imperial College London study from March 30th demonstrated, this disease is particularly deadly for one demographic. It kills an estimated 13.4% of patients 80 and older. The sharpest divide between a temporary issue and death is the age of 70. The overwhelming majority of those who died had weakened immune systems due to preexisting conditions.

          Being elderly, the vast majority of the victims are not employed outside their homes and can more easily stay sheltered in place if they choose to. The disease has ravaged nursing homes.

          THIS demographic and THESE institutions should have been the focus of the concern and resources rather than allowing policies to crush the whole of society.

          • 0 avatar
            HotPotato

            That was Sweden’s approach. Except now it’s ravaging nursing homes there too.

            Sorry, dude. You’re not an epidemiologist. You’re just another ideologue on the internet. Stand down.

    • 0 avatar
      mcs

      “China- NOT OUR FRIEND”

      Yeah, no kidding. When did we figure that out. Wow, news flash. That’s why we have organizations like the National Center for Medical Intelligence, located at Ft. Detrick in Frederick, MD. That’s why we have people embedded at the WHO. NCMI was doing their job and reporting back what was going on. So were the embedded WHO people. That’s because, hey, we don’t trust China and we keep an eye on them. Sure, the Chinese screwed up, but we were aware of it and nothing was done.

      • 0 avatar
        Lie2me

        Master Trump today has decided the China IS in fact our friend and this whole silly virus thing was just an “oops”

        “‘A mistake is a mistake’: Trump on consequences for China following virus outbreak”

        • 0 avatar
          Art Vandelay

          Wow Lie2Me, way to misquote. The whole quote was something akin to “if it was a mistake, a mistake is a mistake, but if they knew and covered it up, there should be consequences”.

          Shame on you for spreading nonsense.

      • 0 avatar
        Arthur Dailey

        @thelaine, not one word you posted was correct.

        Sweden’s per capita death rate is the worst in Scandinavia. That is a fact.

        Trump did nothing regarding the pandemic for a period of 5 weeks, except lie about it. That is a fact.

        And he spent time in Florida golfing, while charging the American citizens, exorbitant amounts for his security detail to ride around in golf carts. That is a fact.

        So much for your wanting to address facts or engage in discussion. When your cult leader has demonstrated his incompetence by ‘leading’ his nation to the largest reported number of deaths of any nation on earth, and you still try to defend him, it demonstrates cognitive dissonance.

        Belonging to a cult means believing in, and defending your leader, regardless of the actual facts. Dictatorships depend on this.

        Democracy on the other hand, depends on a free and independent press and judiciary which holds the leadership accountable. Something that the current POTUS, fears and continually attempts to suppress.

        • 0 avatar
          thelaine

          Art,

          If you had bothered to listen to Giesecke, you would know that you are spouting red herrings about Sweden.

          If you were capable of rational thought, you would know that I have not spend one moment defending the president’s response to this virus. I have spent a month criticizing the economic lock-down policy, because it destroys the most vulnerable people in our nation.

          You live in a cartoon world of good and evil, and you are blind to actual information, even when it is spoon-fed to you, you will not permit it to penetrate your ideological hate-bubble.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            “Sweden, which is an international outlier in resisting a lockdown, has suffered a much higher death toll than its Nordic neighbours, even adjusting for its population being roughly double that of Norway, Denmark or Finland. As of Wednesday, Sweden had 1,203 deaths due to coronavirus, against 143 for Norway, 309 for Denmark and 72 for Finland.”

          • 0 avatar
            Arthur Dailey

            @theLaine, You seem incapable to deciphering nuance.

            For example the poor in places like Chicago and NYC are disproportionately suffering from the pandemic. Not from the closures.

            And the USA with its lack of social safety nets is doing the worst among 1st world nations.

            In Canada, everyone who is out of work or who cannot find work is eligible for $2k monthly from the CERB. Applications are automatically accepted, the money transferred and any overpayments will be settled at tax time.

            Combine that with our universal healthcare and willingness of all governments to take early action and compare our stats with those of the USA.

            Unfortunately some long term care homes are suffering, horribly. But that is because in Canada more people can afford to move into long term care homes to receive the care normally required. This virus has had a devastating impact, unlike that of any other virus or pandemic in those situations.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            @Arthur Dailey – ironically, many care homes are private for profit enterprises.

  • avatar
    Master Baiter

    I’m afraid the gas in the tanks of my three cars may go stale. So, yeah, I don’t need a new car at the moment.

    • 0 avatar
      JimZ

      your fuel systems are sealed. it would take a long time for the gas to go “stale.”

    • 0 avatar

      What does it mean “stale”. does it come with expiration date? Mine is running for second month without refill. So far so good. Just need to charge battery once in two weeks.

      • 0 avatar
        JimZ

        gas goes “stale” in things like lawnmowers, weed trimmers, etc. because those don’t have sealed fuel tanks. the lighter fractions of the gas evaporate away leaving the heavier (and less ignitable) fractions behind. left long enough it’ll just varnish everything. also if it has ethanol in it that will absorb water from the air.

        cars and trucks have had sealed fuel systems for decades. gas won’t last forever, of course, but the lighter fractions have nowhere to go but the charcoal canister.

        • 0 avatar
          Lie2me

          Stay away from that corn syrup (ethanol) your engines will thank you :)

          Also, if your worried about your gas going bad you could always add a stabilizer

        • 0 avatar
          Detroit-X

          Hey, 7th grader: cite your sources for “decades.” Whose paying you for this?

          • 0 avatar
            JimZ

            cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_file_download.cfm?p_download_id=527183

            I’d say “since the 1970s” qualifies as “decades.”

            “Whose paying you for this?”

            that’s “who’s.”

            Sorry you felt you had to accuse me of being on someone’s payroll just because you didn’t know something.

            And you call yourself a car guy :)

          • 0 avatar
            Detroit-X

            Really? 1970s gas studies? Does leaded gas, from random source then, translate to unleaded in 2020?

            You offer nothing useful here with your attacks on everyone and everything.

            Your only function on this website is obviously to act as a paid counterpoint to everyone’s opinion.

            Robert Farago… where are you?

          • 0 avatar
            JimZ

            what the f*** are you talking about? What does leaded gas have to do with anything? We’re talking about sealed fuel systems, which came in when evaporative emissions controls were mandated. cars with EVAP systems can’t let fuel vapors escape into the air. if the vapors can’t escape, the gas won’t go “stale” for a long time.

            take the rest of your WHARRGARBL nonsense elsewhere.

          • 0 avatar
            Detroit-X

            When it comes to respectful discussion, and intelligent option, you offer nothing here on TTAC. Go back to Yahoo. I can see that you’ve bullied this site for quite a while.

            7th Grader.

          • 0 avatar
            mcs

            Bullying? That was a legitimate correct answer. WTF?

          • 0 avatar
            C5 is Alive

            Referring to TTAC’s most rabid and vitriolic resident Leftist as a “7th grader” does a disservice to those still young enough to learn something new and open-minded enough to concede when they may actually be wrong. And “bullying” implies his comments carry far more weight and impact upon the lives of reasonable people than in reality.

        • 0 avatar
          Scoutdude

          Fuel systems were not truly sealed until 1996. Yes there were evap systems before that but the charcoal canisters were vented and once the charcoal was saturated their vent allowed the vapors to escape. And they were really tiny canisters on most cars so the amount they could trap was tiny.

          Even with the fully sealed systems of today the gas will still go bad in 3-4 months.

          • 0 avatar
            JimZ

            my motorcycles spent ~4 months in my garage with their un-sealed fuel systems, and come late March they both fired right up.

          • 0 avatar
            Scoutdude

            So just because they started doesn’t mean that the fuel isn’t stale. There is a large spectrum between fresh and pure varnish. My Scout with its supposed “sealed” tank definitely doesn’t run right after it has set for the winter, until I’ve run down the tank and refilled it with fresh.

          • 0 avatar
            JimZ

            yeah, but Scouts were pieces of crap.

  • avatar
    Whatnext

    Am I the only one surprised not to have seen more dealer desperation to sell? I really haven’t seen any screaming good deals yet.

    • 0 avatar
      Art Vandelay

      It isn’t like cars are stacking up on the lot.

    • 0 avatar
      hreardon

      Since the factories aren’t really pumping out new cars, I suspect there isn’t a horrific amount of over-supply at the moment. Combined with the knowledge that bringing the factories back online will take quite some time, add in transportation time, etc., and you could quickly see a shortage of available cars once buyers return.

      I think a lot of dealers look at what’s on their lots currently and think, “what I have is what I’ll have for at least another 3 months”.

      Reality is that there are still a lot of people who will need to swap their lease, or buy something new, so it’s not like all demand has evaporated.

    • 0 avatar
      Detroit-X

      Dealership owners have lots of cash, and probably won’t hurt the current generation. The demand for cars will come back, but those dealers how made poor financial decisions will pay the consequences.

      • 0 avatar
        Arthur Dailey

        @Detroit-X: Bark M would tend to disagree with your generalization regarding cash reserves.

        Which is why many are more than willing to deal on some vehicles, particularly those that have been sitting on their lot, or those they were ‘forced’ to accept by their manufacturer.

  • avatar
    thelaine

    Meanwhile, we are so fiscally vulnerable, and so far in debt, that if we suffer a major national disaster, we are headed for an economic collapse. We have bled ourselves dry, as part of a strategy to fight a virus. Completely irrational.

    • 0 avatar
      Arthur Dailey

      @TheLaine, that is actually true, but only because the current POTUS/administration has overseen the creation of some of the worst budgetary deficits in American history.

      If the economy was indeed ‘the best ever’ why did he not use that period to pay down public debt to prepare for a potential emergency?

      The Liberal government in Canada under Chretien/Martin did exactly that. They paid down a large Canadian federal government deficit and actually built a surplus. They also refused to allow the Canadian banks to engage in practices similar to that allowed American banks. That allowed Canada to survive the Great Recession of 2008 in much better shape than nearly every other nation.

      • 0 avatar
        thelaine

        Whoa, Art…we…actually…agree…on…something….

        I’m also glad you finally agree that crushing our economy to fight this virus was a huge mistake. The article about Sweden sums things up nicely, for anyone who still has their wits.

        Of course, the debt blow out came on the heels of your Christ figure Obama also blowing out the debt, in historically magnificent fashion, which you ignore, because you are a leftist. Not for me to tell you who to love (or hate.)

        No politician on either side of the fence in the US has the stomach for budget discipline. That is a fact. The last time it happened was a Republican House and Senate teaming up with Democrat and credibly accused rapist Bill Clinton. That was a while ago. Good times.

        • 0 avatar
          Lie2me

          Nobody believes this BS you spew. I don’t think you even believe most of it. You are nothing but a joke around here

          • 0 avatar
            thelaine

            https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/?=frpo

            Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO…agrees with me. Is he a joke??? Are you better qualified, or do you just watch a lot of TV?

            Watch and learn. Calm down. Stop the hysteria.

          • 0 avatar
            C5 is Alive

            Alas thelaine, imploring die-hard Leftists to accept logic, reason and basic math over fueling bleeding heart (and politically motivated) hysteria and panic is likely to be just as effective as expecting other vermin to stop p|ssing and sh|tting where they eat.

          • 0 avatar
            Lie2me

            Don’t you have a state to liberate, I mean your master commands you

            Better get hoppin’ don’t want to suffer master’s angry tweet, do you?

          • 0 avatar
            thelaine

            You are absolutely right, C5. They are cult members, and I am not willing to kidnap them in order to deprogram them. Reason is irrelevant, evidence is irrelevant. They have been absorbed into the collective. They cling to the belief that they represent good and they are fighting evil. Their self-righteous contempt is a shield against rational thought.

          • 0 avatar
            JimZ

            Rule #1 of propaganda: accuse your opponents of that which you yourself are guilty.

            or, as Shakespeare wrote, “The lady doth protest too much, methinks.”

          • 0 avatar
            Lie2me

            Do you really want to talk about “cult members”?

            You boys are losing what little credibility you had, because your master can’t keep his pie hole shut

            You look foolish, both of you

            https://twitter.com/Otpor17/status/1251520641351782400/photo/1

          • 0 avatar
            C5 is Alive

            So cute that you immediately pigeonhole anyone daring to criticize your views as Trump worshipers, when he’s as much the problem as you are for kowtowing to the Left’s hysterical calls to shut down America in the first place.

            Also, while I won’t presume to speak for thelaine, I hardly think of Leftists as “cultists.” I shared my learned view of your true nature in my previous comment.

          • 0 avatar
            Lie2me

            Blaming the “left” for the shut-down of America proves all my points about you

            Surely you have a state government to “liberate”. Don’t want to disappoint master

          • 0 avatar
            Arthur Dailey

            @TheLaine, you are referencing one epidemiologist. When the vast majority advocate for the very opposite.

            If he is right, then good. We can open up sooner.
            If a country follows his advice and he is wrong then you have a disaster on your hands.

            And based on the number of fatalities the USA does appear to have a disaster on its hands.

        • 0 avatar
          Arthur Dailey

          Have you seen the fatality figures coming out of Sweden in comparison to Norway and Denmark?
          Seems that the Swedes ‘got it wrong’, in comparison to the other Scandinavian nations.

          And I like to give credit where it is due and agree whenever possible. For example I fully agree with the POTUS that entering into free trade agreements with autocracies and 3rd world nations is counterproductive. And have repeated that for the past 3+ years.

          • 0 avatar
            Lie2me

            Arthur, it doesn’t matter, these guys are in complete lock-step with their master who demands and gets their totally devotion

          • 0 avatar
            thelaine

            Have you listened to Giesecke, Art? If you had bothered, you would understand. He does. Have you seen the unemployment numbers? Do you understand risk analysis? Have you seen historical flu numbers? You are focused on just one thing: wuhanvirus deaths. You are willing to sacrifice everything to reduce that number immediately. That includes deaths from other causes. If they die of cancer, or causes related to poverty, that is fine. As long as it’s not wuhan.

            “A little-noticed United Nations report out last week found that the massive disruptions and global recession caused by the shutdowns will disproportionately harm children. It says that 60% of children worldwide are in countries under partial or full lockdown orders.

            Based on current estimates of the economic damage caused by the shutdowns, the International Monetary Fund figures a 3% decline in global GDP.

            “Hundreds of thousands of additional child deaths could occur in 2020,’” which “would effectively reverse 2 to 3 years of progress in reducing infant mortality in a single year.”

            And this is likely a low-ball estimate because it counts only the direct impact of a worldwide recession, not the impact shutdowns are having on access to health care, vaccines, prenatal care, food and nutrition, or mental health care.”

            “Then there’s the fact that 368 million children across 143 countries rely on school lunches as a source of nutrition. “Hastily implemented lockdown measures risk disrupting food supply chains and local food markets,” the U.N. report explained, which “pose potentially grave consequences for food security.”

            Perhaps you just hate Trump more than you care about children.

            Or maybe you just hate people with cancer:

            “Richard Sullivan, a professor of cancer and global health at King’s College London, says: “The number of deaths due to the disruption of cancer services is likely to outweigh the number of deaths from the coronavirus itself over the next five years. Cancer screening services have stopped, which means we will miss our chance to catch many cancers when they are treatable and curable.” Charles Swanton, Cancer Research UK’s chief clinician, says some tumours will become “inoperable” rather than survivable.

            The terrifying conclusion must be that there will be a non-Covid health crisis when this pandemic is over. Far more will suffer and die from otherwise treatable conditions as many go undiagnosed and untreated for the next six months. Their families will not forgive or forget.

            Matt Hancock, the health secretary, refuses to give a figure for the potential non-Covid fatalities from this catastrophe but the cabinet was told it could be up to 150,000 avoidable deaths.”

            There is more than one thing to consider, Art. And sacrificing everything in order to try to stop another death from wuhan is not the best strategy, because there are tradeoffs. That is why we don’t sacrifice everything to stop other causes of death. It is shocking that you and others cannot comprehend this. Maybe your blinding and bizarre hatred of the US president is affecting your ability to think. Or maybe it is just terror and hysteria.

          • 0 avatar
            thelaine

            Do you CARE about non-wuhanvirus destruction and death??? Are wuhan deaths the only deaths that matter? Should we sacrifice everyone’s life to prevent another wuhan death? How unsophisticated is your mind, if it cannot take into account the consequences of actions taken?

            The impact of layoffs goes ­beyond suicide, drug overdosing and drinking, however. Overall, the death rate for an unemployed person is 63 percent higher than for someone with a job, according to findings in the journal Social Science & Medicine.

            Now do the math: Layoff-related deaths could far outnumber the 60,400 coronavirus deaths predicted by University of Washington researchers. This comparison isn’t meant to understate the horror of the coronavirus for those who get it and their families.

            But heavy-handed state edicts to close all “nonessential businesses” need to be reassessed in light of the predictable harm to the lives, livelihoods and health of the uninfected.

          • 0 avatar
            thelaine

            About 22 million Americans are now out of work. Hospitals are also suffering great losses and some may shutter, a serious loss not only to the staffs, but also in particular to those living in affected rural areas who need them. The hospitals were ordered to handle only emergency surgeries to make room for a feared tsunami of coronavirus patients that never appeared.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            “Have you listened to Giesecke”

            England initially chose to go the “herd immunity” route and downplayed SARS-CoV-2 just like the USA. They realized that was a mistake and now have taken action. Prime Minister Boris Johnson ended up in their ICU.
            Sweden currently has a dis-proportionally high death rate compared to other Scandinavian countries.
            I have access to information that is outside the realm of politics and personal ideology. As a professional, I source information from the professionals I work with or have access to. I also receive information from my professional licencing body. I also look at what is in the public domain but always verify against multiple sources.
            I find it ironic that those who allege to be on the side of information only source information that aligns with their ideology. They then claim others are blinded by ideology.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            @Arthur Dailey – Odd that “they” aren’t sourcing Dr.Anthony Fauci who has been serving the USA since the early ’80’s and is the USA’s premier expert in this field.

          • 0 avatar
            JimZ

            dude, just get your own f***ing blog.

          • 0 avatar
            thelaine

            At least 22 million people have filed for unemployment benefits in the last four weeks. Retail sales suffered a record drop in March and output at factories declined by the most since 1946. Homebuilding crumbled in March at a speed not seen in 36 years. Economists believe the economy contracted at its steepest pace since World War Two in the first quarter.

          • 0 avatar
            Lie2me

            A bunch of people have died as well, but f*ck them, right?

  • avatar
    thelaine

    The only “model” with any success is actually quite accomplished and appeared in 1840, when a “computer” was an abacus. It’s called Farr’s Law, and is actually more of an observation that epidemics grow fastest at first and then slow to a peak, then decline in a more-or-less symmetrical pattern. As you might guess from the date, it precedes public health services and doesn’t require lockdowns or really any interventions at all. Rather, the disease grabs the low-hanging fruit (with COVID-19 that’s the elderly with co-morbid conditions) and finds it progressively harder to get more fruit.

    https://issuesinsights.com/2020/04/18/after-repeated-failures-its-time-to-permanently-dump-epidemic-models/

    • 0 avatar
      Lie2me

      More Libertarian nonsense

      I’ve read most of your links, some are pretty scary

      • 0 avatar
        thelaine

        Why do you think this guy is SCARY??

        https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/?=frpo

        Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO…

        • 0 avatar
          jkross22

          thelaine, you have consistently quoted one epidemiologist. Why not quote others with whom disagree with the one you chose – those in Taiwan and S. Korea for example, as those countries have more effectively addressed COVID?

          Using a single source for your information is a big mistake… it’s one of the reasons why the US military does not rely on single source intelligence. Too easy to make mistakes.

          • 0 avatar
            Lou_BC

            @jkross22 – I’m surprised he hasn’t quoted Dr. Phil and Dr. Oz…

            No quotes from Dr. Anthony Fauci…. I wonder why?

      • 0 avatar
        thelaine

        Freedom terrifies some people. They prefer the “security” of state control of their lives. These people are known as “leftists.” They are terrified little mice, until they get power, and then they become tyrants. You are an example of this type of person.

        • 0 avatar
          Lie2me

          The only “terrified mouse” in power is you know who (DJT)

          Nice try

          • 0 avatar
            thelaine

            You are terrified of this man:

            Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO

    • 0 avatar
      Dan

      Yeah, Farr’s law works, but when the no intervention required peak is a couple million infections a day and collapse of the health system, and the low hanging fruit are many million people dead it may be prudent to intervene and try for an alternate outcome.

  • avatar
    Arthur Dailey

    Sorry for all the political posts. In fact I am hoping to be in the market for a new vehicle in September (God willing, can I say that here?).

    So will hopefully be looking for actual vehicle reviews and advice, once again. Wonder if that will still be available on TTAC then?

    • 0 avatar
      Lie2me

      Arthur, one of the strangest results of everything going on is that I suddenly want to buy a new car in the worst way. I guess it’s because I have the time to research and focusing on new car shopping gives me relief from constant bad news. I don’t need a new car, but I sure do want one

    • 0 avatar
      Art Vandelay

      I shopped around, and then just brought some go fast goodies for the current ride instead.

      • 0 avatar
        Lie2me

        Lol, me too. I bought all these doodads on ebay for the car. I’ll look like a Pep Boys showroom by the time I’m done. Pin stripes, trim pieces, some nifty badges… What fun ;-)

  • avatar
    threeer

    And 9/10th of these “discussions” have what to do with the sales figures in Europe?

  • avatar
    Jeff S

    The new car dealers around me are doing everything they can to sell new vehicles including on line sales and no charge door to door delivery within 100 miles. Many advertise that they will pick up your vehicle and deliver it back to you for service. Dealers will be very happy to get your business and it is a good time to buy a new vehicle.

    • 0 avatar
      Lou_BC

      @Jeff S – I’ve been watching the local dealerships and not much is moving in their inventories. I had mentioned the local Ford dealer offering up to 18k off on 2019’s. Some discounts have now crept up to 20k. They’ve put discounts on 2020’s up to 12k. I’m inclined to wait and watch a bit longer to see what happens. I’m not in dire need of a new truck but man-oh-man, I’ve never seen deals this good.

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