By on August 3, 2017

Volvo-self-driving-car

Suppliers have begun putting automotive companies on blast for overly ambitious mobility claims. While self-driving cars are definitely en route, manufacturers have ramped up their arrival time and omitted the necessary pit stops to win favor with investors or the general public. Meanwhile, parts suppliers have been frank on the matter — explaining they know when autonomous cars are really coming because they’ll be the ones providing the tidbits that make them work.

Don Walker, CEO of Magna International, one of the world’s largest OEM parts suppliers, suggests automakers may even be misleading their customers. “A full autonomous vehicle is a long way off for lots of reasons, because of legislation, class-action lawsuits, all the complexities and the costs associated with it,” the executive said.

Speaking Wednesday at the 2017 Center for Automotive Research Management Briefing Seminars, Walker also took umbrage with the popular claim that electric vehicles could comprise around 25 percent of the new market by 2025. Instead, he claims EVs will only account for 3 to 6 percent of the global market within that timeframe — a figure predominantly dependent on how swiftly the highly regulated Chinese market grows.

EVs, he predicts, will account for just 3 to 6 percent of the global new vehicle market by 2025. According to Automotive News, Walker stipulated a number closer to 6 percent is only possible if the Chinese EV market grows exceptionally fast.

Considering the global market share of light-duty plug-in vehicles represented a minuscule 0.86 percent of new car sales in 2016, he may have a point. Granted, that’s up from up from 0.62 percent in 2015 and 0.38 percent in 2014 — which is impressive progress. But it isn’t the kind of exponential growth required to hit the 25 percent many automakers have suggested, with many believing U.S. EV sales will stagnate the second government incentives dry up.

Manufacturers have countered this by claiming battery technology and charging networks will progress at a rate that will make EV ownership more convenient and affordable than traditional gas-burners by the prophetic year of 2025. Of course, some automakers claim it will come much sooner than that.

“I am going to get criticized by a lot of people who say I don’t know what is going on,” Walker said. “Quite frankly, auto companies can’t tell publicly what they really believe,” he said. “They know what’s going to happen, but they have to say what is going to be popular to be perceived as a progressive company. We’ve got a lot of feedback from many of the car companies, and they actually believe this to be right.”

Likewise, Walker says manufacturers’ autonomous claims are also bogus. Despite many companies rebranding themselves as futuristic mobility providers, ready to usher in the self-driving revolution, it’ll be some time before Level 5 autonomy makes an appearance.

Walker maintains models with zero autonomous features will still account for 17 percent of new vehicle sales in eight years, while cars with level 1, 2, or 3 autonomy will account for 79 percent of the 2025 market. However, none of these vehicles will provide universal self-driving capabilities, requiring constant human involvement.

Walker estimates Level 4 vehicles will only account for 4 percent of all new vehicles on the road, reserved primarily for wealthy individuals and commercial fleets that could use the technology to save money. “Level 5 cars are not even a sliver on that slide,” he said.

Magna International is not alone. The computing company Nvidia has explicitly stated that Level 5 will be next to impossible before 2025, while other suppliers focusing explicitly on autonomous hardware have claimed similar timelines.

However, Walker admits Magna is bolstering production of its own autonomous-related tech sales from $450 million today to $1 billion by 2020 — reminding the crowd that it’s all still coming, even if it’s not at the pace promised by automakers.

[Image: Volvo Cars]

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17 Comments on “Saying What’s Popular: Suppliers Claim Automakers Are Overselling the Future of ‘Mobility’...”


  • avatar
    Alfisti

    Try saying this in public, people think you’re a luddite or plain stupid.

    The only way i kind of get their attention is when i say “have you used a hands free washroom”, then it dawns on some of them that this may be more complicated than they expected.

    • 0 avatar
      packardhell1

      “The only way i kind of get their attention is when i say “have you used a hands free washroom”, then it dawns on some of them that this may be more complicated than they expected.”

      I know there is no comparison to a self-driving automobile, but my local Wal-mart has a hands-free washroom. Well, I still have to wash my hands, yes, because it isn’t THAT automated. But I don’t have to touch the urinal to flush. I don’t touch the sink to get water. I don’t touch the hot air jet to dry and there is no door to open on the way out (just a short maze of walls).

      I see where other restroom activities would be terribly complicated to automate.

      • 0 avatar
        MLS

        How often do you end up flailing your hands before a touch-less faucet’s sensor only to give up in frustration and sidestep over to the next sink? Because it happens to me kind of a lot.

      • 0 avatar
        gaudette

        Does the automated bathroom work 100% of the time without a single failure? Would you trust your life and the lives of those around on their ability to dispense water and dry your hands?

        • 0 avatar
          bikegoesbaa

          Do human perception, decision making, and reaction time work 100% of the time without a single failure?

          Would you trust the life and the lives of those around on the ability of drunk/bored/texting/tired primates to operate an automobile?

          • 0 avatar
            gaudette

            Do you sue the maker of a water faucet when it doesn’t work?

          • 0 avatar
            bikegoesbaa

            Not typically, but I’m not sure how that’s relevant.

            Plus, just like automated bathrooms, autonomous cars don’t have to be 100% perfect. They just need to be better than what we’re doing now.

            Right now we kill ~30k people per year with cars in the US alone. That’s a pretty long way from perfection; and I’m interested in any technology that could improve it by a meaningful amount.

    • 0 avatar
      dwford

      Most restrooms aren’t even totally hands free. You’ll either get the automatic flush, the automatic sink or the automatic dryer, but rarely all 3 in the same room.

    • 0 avatar
      Alfisti

      “Right now we kill ~30k people per year with cars in the US alone. That’s a pretty long way from perfection; and I’m interested in any technology that could improve it by a meaningful amount.”

      And this is where people have it so wrong.

      Whilst correct if taken globally, i only care about my family and I and be damned if i am going to let automated technology make a decision on who dies and who lives or screw up when so far i have not.

      it needs to be FLAWLESS.

      • 0 avatar
        bikegoesbaa

        You say that as though your safety today is not largely dependent on the decisions made by other drivers, who are most assuredly drunk/stoned/texting/learning/etc on a routine basis.

  • avatar
    sportyaccordy

    There are just so many hurdles. Infrastructure, replacement rate, market desires, credit costs etc. Anyone who proclaims this will happen any time soon is a zealot. I don’t think anyone alive today will see widespread Level 5 cars in their lifetime. And that sucks because that would solve a lot of problems and help a lot of people.

  • avatar

    Courageous of Walker to be this honest, especially since he is representing a Tier 1 automotive company.

  • avatar
    dwford

    Finally someone who speaks the truth about all this. And for all the talk of autonomous cars, no one ever talks about the cost of these cars.

    To me, unless and until level 5 cars exist, no one should call these cars autonomous at all.

  • avatar
    bluegoose

    It’s a lot of BS to raise stock prices. End of story. They’ve seen Musk raise his stock prices with dreams..the big automakers want a piece of the pie. One day there will be Driverless Cars… Supersonic Flight will be the norm..and a base on Mars…and we will control the weather. None of this is happening anytime soon. As Billy Joel once said…”It’s just a Fantasy..it’s not the real thing.” That should be the theme song for all of this.

    Yes..we have Supersonic flight already..but it is extremely limited in use for a variety of reasons. I think “Level 5” cars may end up in the same predicament.

    • 0 avatar
      bikegoesbaa

      Do you think maybe someday I’ll have a touch-screen computer that fits in my pocket and can instantly connect me both to the sum total of human knowledge and almost any living person in the developed world?

      Perhaps it will also take pictures, play video, wirelessly connect to my car, and communicate with GPS satellites in space.

      Maybe some day in the distant future such a miraculous device will exist. Wouldn’t that be amazing it I could buy it at Target for $100!

      Well, maybe my grandkids will live to see it.

      • 0 avatar
        Guitar man

        Touch screens came out in 1981. Pocket computers even earlier than that.

        This is just more useless tat being promoted by manufactuers so they can trade in their bloated station wagons with chrome wheels and fairy lights for the new model.

  • avatar
    hreardon

    Awesome to read someone taking the other side of the autonomous and electric vehicle trade.

    A better comparison would be the STS program at NASA (space shuttle). Taking the political angle of the project out of things, the concept of taking off like a rocket and landing like a plane seemed pretty straightforward. But then they started putting pencil to paper and discovered all of the things they didn’t know *that they didn’t know*. NASA’s goal of launching once per week was a pipe dream based on early assumptions of how easy it would be to refurbish the vehicle and turn it around. 9 flights in 1985 was the most ever managed in a calendar year. There was no resemblance to the reality of what was discovered when put into production.

    We’re going to run into a lot of things that “we didn’t know we didn’t know until we knew” with respect to both of these technologies.

    Of course, not as complex as the space shuttle, but the adoption will be a lot slower than some think. This is not the same as smartphones taking over the market for telecommunications like they have in the last ten years.

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