Dark Horse Best Analyst Of The Month

dark horse best analyst of the month

Each month, Bloomberg asks 15 or 16 analysts for their forecasts of the month’s sales data. But how good are they really? Knowing who has a good aim could make you a lot of money at the stock exchange, for instance. This is where TTAC comes in. Each month, we tell you who hit, who missed, and who is not even in the ballpark. Analysts who only give a SAAR and nothing else are being punished in this ranking. Will just a SAAR help you to know whether you should buy Ford or short GM? Thankfully, the number of lazy analysts diminishes each month. And here are this month’s winners:

November Analyst Rankings

RankAnalyst GMFord Chrysler SAARSAAR DiffOEM DiffOverall1Brian Johnson (Barclays)5.5%2.9%14.0%15.31.5%5.6%7.1%2Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com)5.5%3.3%13.0%15.03.5%6.2%9.7%3Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank)6.0%2.0%12.0%15.40.9%9.0%9.9%4Joseph Spak (RBC)7.7%3.5%16.0%15.22.2%9.2%11.4%5Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse)7.0%3.0%17.0%15.12.8%10.0%12.8%6John Sousanis (Ward’s)7.6%3.9%18.0%15.22.2%10.7%12.9%7Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA)9.5%2.7%16.0%15.03.5%11.8%15.3%8Alec Gutierrez (Kelley)7.0%0.5%13.0%14.75.4%10.5%15.9%9Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com)9.0%1.5%18.0%15.22.2%14.5%16.7%10Peter Nesvold (Jefferies)8.6%2.3%18.0%15.03.5%13.3%16.8%11Patrick Archambault (Goldman)9.9%1.2%16.0%15.03.5%13.7%17.2%12Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan)NANANA15.03.5%300.0%303.5%13Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive)NANANA15.03.5%300.0%303.5%14George Magliano (IHS)NANANA14.84.7%300.0%304.7%15Alan Baum (Baum & Associates)NANANA14.75.4%300.0%305.4%Average7.6%2.4%16.0%15.00Actual3.0%6.0%14.0%15.54

On average, the 15 analysts polled by Bloomberg were not optimistic enough on the market, were way to exuberant about GM, did not give enough credit to Ford, and called Chrysler alright. Rock star Jesse Toprak had a bad month and licks his wounds in rank 9. Golden Girl Jessica Caldwell came close, but was denied first place by dark horse Brian Johnson of Barclays. In prior months, Johnson was known for rather middling performance. Was is mere luck? We will know next month, when the analyst of the year will get the TTAC ’12, a.k.a. The Top Anlalyst Crown 2012.

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4 of 5 comments
  • Ron Ron on Dec 05, 2012

    Bertel, you don't understand how "forecasts" are made. No analyst can make a company estimate on his or her own because a high, and variable, percentage of deliveries are fleet. How can someone on Wall Street guess that Hertz took delivery of 25,000 vehicles in late November instead of early December? (Incidentally, 25,000 is a 0.3 million SAAR.) Accuracy is determined by the timing of the call (Jerry called on Monday; Wendy on Wednesday, when two days' more data was available) and, occasionally, on whether or not the company likes the analyst (George has a buy recommendation; Sally, a sell).

    • See 1 previous
    • Ron Ron on Dec 05, 2012

      @Bertel Schmitt I can only go by your words. Your post said, "But how good are they really? Knowing who has a good aim could make you a lot of money at the stock exchange, for instance." And then you label inaccurate analysts "lazy".

  • Don1967 Don1967 on Dec 05, 2012

    "Will just a SAAR help you to know whether you should buy Ford or short GM?" Sure, if you're a day trader whose attention span is shorter than a Lamborghini Murciélago's quarter-mile run. But something tells me Warren Buffett isn't exactly poring over lists of monthly analyst rankings.

  • Terelaad The entire plant is just a toy for the rich.
  • Seanx37 If it made economic sense, it would have happened decades ago. No one would insure such places. And few are going to take $60-150k electric cars off road unless they are very wealthy
  • MaintenanceCosts Seems pretty obvious that they're leaving room for a SRT with the 2.0T and the electric motor. The R/T will probably be slower than the GT given the extra weight, but without the 9-speed it will be a much nicer drive.
  • Art Vandelay Lawyers would Eff it up. That and the NIMBYS. I agree with you, but it ain't gonna happen
  • EBFlex They are getting rid of the Charger and Challenger for a modern day Neon?just end it Dodge, you had a great run