TrueCar, Auto Execs Expect Very Strong November

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt
truecar auto execs expect very strong november

Driven by a rebounding economy and an after-Sandy pop, auto sales in November will be be “highest since February 2008,” expects Jesse Toprak, senior analyst at Sales chiefs at major automakers agree.

Unit Sales Forecast November 2012ManufacturerNov’12MoMYoYNissan86,5278.6%1.6%Hyundai/Kia97,4305.1%12.5%Honda111,1083.9%32.4%Toyota161,1843.8%16.8%Volkswagen47,2642.7%24.0%Industry1,120,0882.6%12.7%Ford168,9630.6%1.5%GM196,5750.4%9.0%Chrysler126,6150.3%18.1%Source: TrueCar

TrueCar projects November sales of new light vehicles to be 1,120,088 units, up 12.7 percent from November 2011 and up 2.6 percent from October 2012, for a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) of 15.2 million.

Most of the growth comes from Asian and European transplants. Nissan is projected for an 8.6 percent month-on-month pop, mainly driven by record incentives. TrueCar says that on average, Nissan put $4,273 on the hood of every car sold in November. Much maligned Honda is projected to increase its sales by a third over November 2011.

Market Share Forecast November 2012ManufacturerNov’12Oct’12Nov’11Nissan7.7%7.3%8.6%Toyota14.4%14.2%13.9%Hyundai/Kia8.7%8.5%8.7%Honda9.9%9.8%8.4%Volkswagen4.2%4.2%3.8%Chrysler11.3%11.6%10.8%Ford15.1%15.4%16.7%GM17.5%17.9%18.2%Source: TrueCar

The strength of the foreigners is expected to translate into lost market share in Detroit. Ford and GM are seen to lose share both month-on-month and year-on-year. Chrysler is seen to improve its share by half a point over November 2011, but to shed three tenths compared to October 2012.

Carmaker executives agree with the projections. Toyota’s U.S. Chief Jim Lentz expects a SAAR anywhere between 14.8 and 15.2 million. John Mendel, EVP of American Honda, expects a November SAAR “right around 15 million,” Reuters reports.

Toyota believes that 400,000 units were destroyed by Sandy, 100,000 of those being new cars, Lentz told Reuters.

Jim Farley, Ford’s global sales and marketing chief, is banking on people getting tired of their thirsty old cars, and want to trade them for fuel efficient new ones. “The average car is 11 years old,” Farley told the Wall Street Journal. “The fleet has never been older.”

Join the conversation
  • DeadWeight DeadWeight on Nov 28, 2012

    Stack that metal boys, and stack it deep, and push it out on a subprime credit sub-200 dolla' $0 down leases on the cheap. Remain Optima, but bee Civic, Focus hard, feel that Soul & Spark a Fiesta, steal a Jolt &...Cruz... (Keep that line movin', movin', movin' rawhide....giddyup).

  • BigMeats BigMeats on Nov 28, 2012

    "Sales chiefs at major automakers agree." Now *there's* an argument from authority.

  • Kat Laneaux What's the benefits of this as opposed to the Ford or Nissan. Will the mileage be better than the 19 city, 24 hwy? Will it cost less than the average of $60,000? Will it be a hybrid?
  • Johnster Minor quibble. The down-sized full-sized 1980-only Continental (which was available with Town Car and Town Coupe trims) gave up its name in 1981 and became the Town Car. The name "Town Coupe" was never used after the 1980 model year. The 1981 Lincoln Town Car was available with a 2-door body style, but the 2-door Lincoln Town Car was discontinued and not offered for the 1982 model year and never returned to the Lincoln lineup.
  • Zipper69 Some discreet dwebadging and this will pass for a $95k Lucid Air...
  • Zipper69 Does it REALLY have to be a four door?Surely a truly compact vehicle could stick with the half-door access with jump seats for short term passengers.
  • ToolGuy See kids, you can keep your old car in good condition.