Sales Oracles Think July Will Be Hot

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt
sales oracles think july will be hot

Countering talk of an impending end to the new car party, augurs predict that July will be seasonally hot. TrueCar says that this July could be the best since the heydays of 2007. TrueCar, which bases its projections on real time transactions from its associated dealers, thinks that July sales could reach 1.17 million, up 10.6 percent from July 2011. Edmunds also sees 1.17 million new cars in its crystal ball. Kelley Blue Book basically agrees with 1.16 million on its tip sheet.

TrueCar ForecastEdmunds ForecastKelley ForecastConsensus ForecastManufacturerJuly ’12YoYJuly ’12YoYJuly ’12YoYJuly ’12YoYChrysler131,66817.5%131,6689.2%129,90016.0%131,07914.2%Ford178,345-1.1%175,791-2.5%179,800-0.3%177,979-1.3%GM215,5200.3%214,315-0.3%218,1001.5%215,9780.5%Honda116,47044.7%123,66853.6%111,35038.3%117,16345.5%Hyundai/Kia111,1595.8%n/an/a106,7001.6%108,9303.7%Nissan95,18712.5%98,21616.1%93,95011.1%95,78413.2%Toyota159,17421.7%169,61729.7%168,20028.6%165,66426.7%Volkswagen49,83130.4%n/an/a46,40021.0%48,11625.7%Industry1,171,20110.6%1,166,66510.2%1,160,0009.5%1,165,95510.1%

TrueCar thinks the Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) will be around 14.1 million new car sales, up from 12.2 million in July 2011. That’s the good news.

The bad news are that retail sales are expected to be up an anemic 3 percent only. Most of the growth is expected in Fleet sales which are thought to account for 21 percent of total industry sales in July 2012.

More not quite good news could be in stock for Ford and GM. The big July bonanza will pass them by, TrueCar expects. Says Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for

“The Japanese Big 3, as well as Chrysler, will all be posting double-digit gains while Ford and GM will essentially be flat. One look at the Toyota and Honda sales today will make you think as if nothing ever happened last year.”

Edmunds even has slight decreases in the boxes of Ford and GM. But then, fleet sales could change that.

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11 of 42 comments
  • Mikey Mikey on Jul 26, 2012

    @highdesertcat...Great choice, with the Grand Cherokee. The Jeep is the only true "smaller" SUV on the market today. @ jimmyy, or whatever your going by now. The only thing your beloved "Honda" did right,was not playing the truck game like Toyota did. Hows them "Tundra" sales doing these days?

    • See 8 previous
    • Highdesertcat Highdesertcat on Jul 27, 2012

      alluster, that is true. And while each buyer has their own reason(s) for doing so, the bottom line is that they did it, still do it today and will continue to do it as long as Tundras are available. Every one of those sales of a Tundra (or a Titan) means one less sale for the domestic brands. Yeah, the numbers of Tundra and Titan sold are pitifully small, but over time they do add up. Had Tundra and Titan not been available, those same sales would have gone to the domestic manufacturers like they did before Tundra and Titan existed.

  • Rday Rday on Jul 27, 2012

    Here is an interesting article from AutoMD which states that the vast majority of car owners are not planning on replacing their cars anytime too soon. Bodes well for parts companies but not the car manufacturers.

  • David S. Bear Tooth and Chief Joseph highways.
  • StormEagle 400 miles range
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  • Lou_BC You'd think cops would have an understanding of the laws they are supposed to enforce.
  • Merlyn I’m on my second Spark and love it! I can pass any car I’ve never had a problem going up a hill it does just fine. As for cargo I can fit three suitcases, two book bags and still have the front seat for a passenger. Not sure what point this guy is trying to make. I have hand free phone service and Sirius radio plug in my phone and have navigation. I would buy another spark in a heartbeat.