Sales Oracles Think July Will Be Hot

Bertel Schmitt
by Bertel Schmitt

Countering talk of an impending end to the new car party, augurs predict that July will be seasonally hot. TrueCar says that this July could be the best since the heydays of 2007. TrueCar, which bases its projections on real time transactions from its associated dealers, thinks that July sales could reach 1.17 million, up 10.6 percent from July 2011. Edmunds also sees 1.17 million new cars in its crystal ball. Kelley Blue Book basically agrees with 1.16 million on its tip sheet.

TrueCar ForecastEdmunds ForecastKelley ForecastConsensus ForecastManufacturerJuly ’12YoYJuly ’12YoYJuly ’12YoYJuly ’12YoYChrysler131,66817.5%131,6689.2%129,90016.0%131,07914.2%Ford178,345-1.1%175,791-2.5%179,800-0.3%177,979-1.3%GM215,5200.3%214,315-0.3%218,1001.5%215,9780.5%Honda116,47044.7%123,66853.6%111,35038.3%117,16345.5%Hyundai/Kia111,1595.8%n/an/a106,7001.6%108,9303.7%Nissan95,18712.5%98,21616.1%93,95011.1%95,78413.2%Toyota159,17421.7%169,61729.7%168,20028.6%165,66426.7%Volkswagen49,83130.4%n/an/a46,40021.0%48,11625.7%Industry1,171,20110.6%1,166,66510.2%1,160,0009.5%1,165,95510.1%

TrueCar thinks the Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (“SAAR”) will be around 14.1 million new car sales, up from 12.2 million in July 2011. That’s the good news.

The bad news are that retail sales are expected to be up an anemic 3 percent only. Most of the growth is expected in Fleet sales which are thought to account for 21 percent of total industry sales in July 2012.

More not quite good news could be in stock for Ford and GM. The big July bonanza will pass them by, TrueCar expects. Says Jesse Toprak, Vice President of Market Intelligence for TrueCar.com.:

“The Japanese Big 3, as well as Chrysler, will all be posting double-digit gains while Ford and GM will essentially be flat. One look at the Toyota and Honda sales today will make you think as if nothing ever happened last year.”

Edmunds even has slight decreases in the boxes of Ford and GM. But then, fleet sales could change that.

Bertel Schmitt
Bertel Schmitt

Bertel Schmitt comes back to journalism after taking a 35 year break in advertising and marketing. He ran and owned advertising agencies in Duesseldorf, Germany, and New York City. Volkswagen A.G. was Bertel's most important corporate account. Schmitt's advertising and marketing career touched many corners of the industry with a special focus on automotive products and services. Since 2004, he lives in Japan and China with his wife <a href="http://www.tomokoandbertel.com"> Tomoko </a>. Bertel Schmitt is a founding board member of the <a href="http://www.offshoresuperseries.com"> Offshore Super Series </a>, an American offshore powerboat racing organization. He is co-owner of the racing team Typhoon.

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  • Mikey Mikey on Jul 26, 2012

    @highdesertcat...Great choice, with the Grand Cherokee. The Jeep is the only true "smaller" SUV on the market today. @ jimmyy, or whatever your going by now. The only thing your beloved "Honda" did right,was not playing the truck game like Toyota did. Hows them "Tundra" sales doing these days?

    • See 8 previous
    • Highdesertcat Highdesertcat on Jul 27, 2012

      alluster, that is true. And while each buyer has their own reason(s) for doing so, the bottom line is that they did it, still do it today and will continue to do it as long as Tundras are available. Every one of those sales of a Tundra (or a Titan) means one less sale for the domestic brands. Yeah, the numbers of Tundra and Titan sold are pitifully small, but over time they do add up. Had Tundra and Titan not been available, those same sales would have gone to the domestic manufacturers like they did before Tundra and Titan existed.

  • Rday Rday on Jul 27, 2012

    Here is an interesting article from AutoMD which states that the vast majority of car owners are not planning on replacing their cars anytime too soon. Bodes well for parts companies but not the car manufacturers. http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-three-year-vehicle-purchase-cycle-is-dead-and-not-coming-back-even-if-economy-does-according-to-automdcom-survey-163391366.html

  • Jpolicke Jaguar started making cars that were dead ringers for Kia Optimas, but less reliable. They now look like everything and nothing; certainly nothing to aspire to.
  • ToolGuy I would answer, but the question might change again, and then where would we be? Also, bran... wheat bran? Bran Castle? The coliva served at Bran Castle is made with wheat, I checked. (Some places use rice, because collectivism does not work.)
  • ToolGuy Learn to drive, people.
  • Corey Lewis I saw a TVR Griffith 500 (mfd 1990-2002) back in June 2014 at the Ault Park Concours, in a side parking lot. It had plates on it, but was MUCH too new to be in the US, especially so as the 500 was a later model 1993+. Luckily I took pics as proof!
  • Bd2 This is when BMW started to go downhill design-wise...
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